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A 2-week 'circuit breaker' could be coming after Christmas

834 replies

dancingstars · 18/12/2021 00:31

Reported by The Times and The Guardian which means another NYE stuck indoors...

OP posts:
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13
rrhuth · 18/12/2021 10:17

@GoldenOmber

We will have to deal with what is next after we have dealt with what is coming up. That is how crises work.

They work by planning ahead. You can’t just say “we need to do this now to avoid the bad thing” if all it does is push the bad thing two weeks down the road.

One of the features of a crisis is you can't plan for it ahead of time. Omicron was sequenced, what, three weeks ago?

Johnson is a ditherer by nature but Wales have basically announced a shutdown from Boxing Day already haven't they?

I do not see what your alternative is? No one has a time machine to go back, switch PM, fund the NHS properly for the last 24 months and be in a different place now.

Mindareno · 18/12/2021 10:18

To be clear I am more than happy to support a firebreak if that’s going to be enough to stop the hospitals being overwhelmed by omicron. I’m querying if it is.

BligeMe · 18/12/2021 10:18

Chickenrun771
"Let's see your data on "young, vaccine refusals in ITU", in comparison to those who are double vax'd and older. Let me tell you, it varies quite starkly with the data I've viewed lately"
Sorry I've no data, just what I've seen and read in the news. My question was a genuine one, i.e what is a valid medical reason for vaccine refusal, other than allergy? I acknowledge that sone may suffer unforeseen vaccine side effects, and I understand why people don't want a vaccine for non medical reasons. I didn't either, the vaccine is new and scary. But here I am, triple vaxxed anyway, because my fear of covid itself is worse. And I always have the flu jab, even though, like the covid jab, it doesn't guarantee you won't catch the disease you're trying to avoid. But you're less likely to become seriously ill. And presumably, if the worst happens and you do have to go to hospital, your prognosis is better than an unvaccinated person, so if the doctor has to choose between two patients for one bed, the vaccinated person should win?

rrhuth · 18/12/2021 10:19

@Mindareno

Ask yourself honestly - do you really think that you are thinking abut this in a way the chief medical officer has not considered? Highly unlikely. We have known for two weeks that Omicron was going to be fast and we might need to do this

I haven’t said I know more than Chris Whitty, or that this lockdown shouldn’t happen. I don’t have any answers to an impossible situation. I’m just concerned about what happens afterwards, which I don’t think is unreasonable. I also haven’t heard Chris Whitty publicly say he thinks a 2 week firebreak is going to solve this?

2 weeks won’t be enough

No but if the CMO says it is NOT needed then I can not see any way Johnson would do it.

I can see a scenario where Whitty/SAGE say it is needed and Johnson ignores, but not vice versa.

rrhuth · 18/12/2021 10:21

@BligeMe Despite all the fucking chaos and the issues, philosophically speaking, 'I do not want to' is a legtimate reason for refusal of any medical procedure.

Shadeelane · 18/12/2021 10:21

I don't want a big fuck off party. I just want to meet up with a couple of friends who are in dire need of a pick me up. I know some will desperately want to meet with huge numbers and if I was 20 years younger maybe I'd feel the same, so yeah I'm being selfish in that respect.

Why does it have to be so severe? If they say no mixing indoors at all people will say a big fuck you. Maybe if they ask us nicely to seriously consider limiting our mixing, don't hold massive indoor parties, keep it small maybe, just maybe enough people will do the right thing. Stop treating the British public like toddlers and maybe they'll act like responsible adults.

RedToothBrush · 18/12/2021 10:21

This isnt how it works but i will try and simplify:

100 people are exposed to omicron by a single person at a super spreader party. They are all doubled vaccined with AZ. 90 of them get it.
90 people infect 3 people each in line with normal r rate. Thats 270. Who then infect 3 people each. Thats 810. In a week at current infections rates.

Tier 2 restrictions with time for boosters to be done and kick in
First of all your fictional party is less likely.

Then even if you do have fictional party, if you have 100 people exposed to omicron at a superspreader event and they have booster, only 30 get it.
30 then pass it to 3 people in line with normal R rate. Thats 90. Who then give it to 3 people. Thats 270.

Thats 810 v 270 as you base line.

Obviously its much more complex in real life but hopefully that explains compound cases and why just two weeks in this scenario with places that can host large parties effectively closed, is actually very valuable and possibly worthwhile.

I know it doesn't feel like it. I do think the aim here is fundamentally different to previous restrictions.

Understand the effect of compound maths and it does make sense!

GiveMeNovocain · 18/12/2021 10:22

Well we tried a 17 day circuit breaker in wales to stop a less infectious variant and save Christmas. We were told it would definitely work and England was terribly irresponsible not doing the same. Spoiler...it didn't make a mite of difference except maybe bunching up infections. Why do we still believe that all this messing about makes more difference than effective treatment and vaccination? Our hubris knows no bounds. Viruses are designed to do one thing...spread

Tara336 · 18/12/2021 10:23

They can do one if they think it’s ok to lock us down again while they have parties and blatantly ignored the rules they created. Our business can not afford any more lockdowns, I can’t cope mentally with anymore of this uncertainty. I have complied with every single rule, got vaccinated and got on with it and still managed to somehow catch COVID. I’m done with it and will be carrying on as normal enough is enough now.

MsAgnesDiPesto · 18/12/2021 10:24

I can’t believe that people are being so wilfully hard of thinking on this. I see it on every thread. ‘I’ve had enough!’ ‘The government doesn’t know what it’s doing!’ ‘ the government had parties, so I will too!’.

Yes, those things are true.

BUT

The pandemic is caused by a new virus. It does what it wants to, in predictable and unpredictable ways. The government is not guiding its progress. As much of a shower of shit as they are, it’s not their fault that the virus is changing, and we have to change our response to it accordingly.

Here are some more facts:

If the doubling rate continues, and it is so far, then it will be less than 2 weeks before a number the size of our population is infected. That’s everyone. All at once, not in manageable shifts.

Forget the NHS for a minute - although of course it would be a disaster for the service and therefore for all of us.

Think instead of all the other services which would not be able to run. Food chain supply. Medical supplies. Water and sewage services. Power plants. Bin collection and waste processing. Burying the dead, fgs. Schools and education all shut. Public transport off.

Of course the state of the NHS is the fault of successive, rapacious Tory governments’ underfunding. But even if we gave them all the money they need, today, it would be years before the service could run as we all want it to. We can’t, sadly, magic up the staff and capacity we would need to handle the numbers affected, even if we do allow EU workers back (which of course should have always been the case).

As of yesterday, only 51% of people had received a booster. They aren’t efficacious until maybe a couple of weeks later. So at the moment, huge swathes of the population are in a position where they are vulnerable to transmission, and if they catch Omicron, they are out of the workforce for ten days. Only a small proportion can be taken out of the equation when considering the doubling rate, as a much smaller number than the 51% will be fully protected as of now.

So we have to be prepared to take measures which will keep things manageable and allow the country to keep running, even if it is in a reduced or tick over mode, until boosters are received and working - which 2 weeks slowdown at the beginning of January would offer.

I hate the idea. I hate it all. I have developed anxiety and depression due in part to the effect of the pandemic. But I can see why this is needed, and how it will directly affect my life if we don’t do it.

Why can’t so many of you?

MarshaBradyo · 18/12/2021 10:24

@GiveMeNovocain

Well we tried a 17 day circuit breaker in wales to stop a less infectious variant and save Christmas. We were told it would definitely work and England was terribly irresponsible not doing the same. Spoiler...it didn't make a mite of difference except maybe bunching up infections. Why do we still believe that all this messing about makes more difference than effective treatment and vaccination? Our hubris knows no bounds. Viruses are designed to do one thing...spread
Exactly

I remember all the cries here for the same.

TheKeatingFive · 18/12/2021 10:24

2 week 'circuit breaker' will achieve nothing. If they go ahead with this, prepare to be locked down to the end of Feb.

And then what? When's the next one coming?

GoldenOmber · 18/12/2021 10:24

One of the features of a crisis is you can't plan for it ahead of time.

You said: “There is no 'longer term' just now. The furthest we can really look is January.”

This is clearly not true, because not only can we plan for things that we know about ahead of time - we have to. It’s what makes the difference between ‘planning’ and ‘flailing about in a panic’.

The same way we did in March 2020, when hospitals weren’t overwhelmed but we knew that they risked being. The same as putting furlough in place to prevent job losses and businesses collapsing rather than saying “well that hasn’t happened today so we can’t think ahead to tomorrow.” The same as investing in vaccine developments and planning for vaccine rollout before we had vaccines.

If we know that we face a bad thing in December/January, and we know that doing such-and-such a thing would stop it then but make it happen in February instead, we can’t ignore that.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 18/12/2021 10:24

By January if what they are saying is true about the numbers, most people will have had it or have it currently

As far away as January? I think people are forgetting Javid claimed the actual infection numbers were TWENTY times the declared rate, which could bring it forward to ... ooooh, about now I guess

Never mind though; if the number's already peaked by the time any measures start, they can still claim it's a circuit breaker/lockdown/whatever which made the difference ...

MarshaBradyo · 18/12/2021 10:26

@Puzzledandpissedoff

By January if what they are saying is true about the numbers, most people will have had it or have it currently

As far away as January? I think people are forgetting Javid claimed the actual infection numbers were TWENTY times the declared rate, which could bring it forward to ... ooooh, about now I guess

Never mind though; if the number's already peaked by the time any measures start, they can still claim it's a circuit breaker/lockdown/whatever which made the difference ...

A peak is more likely to reduce numbers than what is proposed

If they do it anyway.. well no words

XmasGoose · 18/12/2021 10:26

Firstly I have no idea how Neil Ferguson still has any role in advising the government- he has been wrong again and again.

Tbh I suspect my golden retriever could produce more accurate models if food was involved.

I’ve had all 3 jabs as soon as available and test regularly, as have my DCs.

But personally I absolutely don’t support another lockdown, won’t be complying as far as possible and my teenage DC won’t either. We simply cannot continue repeating this socially and economically ruinous policy.

I would support things like requiring negative tests to enter hospitality venues and ensuring that indoor settings have windows and doors open- schools are one of the worst culprits for this ime.

There was a poll yesterday showing that the vast majority of the public would not support lockdown measures, so I think compliance would rightly be an issue.

kitcat15 · 18/12/2021 10:26

@Shadeelane

A January circuit breaker isn't fucking fine. We're supposed to be going away with friends for new year, a trip rescheduled from last year. There's 4 of us ffs. If it gets cancelled again I'll lose my shit. What I can't share a house with 1 other household, all of us fully vaccinated for 3 sodding days cos Johnson yet again decides new year celebrations can go fuck themselves. Then everyone back to work as normal? Piss off. Sorry but this has really pissed me off.
Get over yourself🙄
RedToothBrush · 18/12/2021 10:28

Boosters are a stop gap to an updated variant vaccine btw.

We will be getting 4th doses with a new vaccine. I'm pretty damn sure of that.

Kjcf · 18/12/2021 10:28

Didn’t Wales use a circuit breaker to save Christmas last year! That worked well. Time for people to face up to reality!!

rrhuth · 18/12/2021 10:29

@GoldenOmber

One of the features of a crisis is you can't plan for it ahead of time.

You said: “There is no 'longer term' just now. The furthest we can really look is January.”

This is clearly not true, because not only can we plan for things that we know about ahead of time - we have to. It’s what makes the difference between ‘planning’ and ‘flailing about in a panic’.

The same way we did in March 2020, when hospitals weren’t overwhelmed but we knew that they risked being. The same as putting furlough in place to prevent job losses and businesses collapsing rather than saying “well that hasn’t happened today so we can’t think ahead to tomorrow.” The same as investing in vaccine developments and planning for vaccine rollout before we had vaccines.

If we know that we face a bad thing in December/January, and we know that doing such-and-such a thing would stop it then but make it happen in February instead, we can’t ignore that.

My view is we are flailing around in a panic.

Original covid was really slow compared to this, and the government was united behind their leader, and Sunak was willing to open the chequebook.

All of that is what is making it a crisis too.

Flapjacker48 · 18/12/2021 10:29

@MsAgnesDiPesto Stop fearmongering - you sound like a daily mail headline with your "dead won't be buried"

RedToothBrush · 18/12/2021 10:30

@TheKeatingFive

2 week 'circuit breaker' will achieve nothing. If they go ahead with this, prepare to be locked down to the end of Feb.

And then what? When's the next one coming?

Disagree tbh.

But i dont think the public will grasp the concept and indeed the success of this one even if it works anyway.

GiveMeNovocain · 18/12/2021 10:31

If your calculations claim the whole population will mean that an entire population catches a virus in in a very short timeframe, might I suggest you start with a new envelope. Even during the plague and measles this has never happened

MsAgnesDiPesto · 18/12/2021 10:32

[quote Flapjacker48]@MsAgnesDiPesto Stop fearmongering - you sound like a daily mail headline with your "dead won't be buried"[/quote]
I’m not. It’s just pure logic if numbers aren’t checked. If being realistic isn’t helping, then we are just going forward blindly.

rrhuth · 18/12/2021 10:32

But i dont think the public will grasp the concept and indeed the success of this one even if it works anyway agree with that - it seems if things do not completely break 'there was no need anyway' (rather than things didn't break because something was done) and if it looks bad it will be 'there was no point' (rather than it would have been even worse without action).

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