A 2-week 'circuit breaker' could be coming after Christmas

[dancingstars]

Reported by The Times and The Guardian which means another NYE stuck indoors...

I'll be interested to see how they would plan to deal with hotels/self catering. Presumably we would still be "open", so they wouldn't have to pay any kind of compensation, but with no guests. I am about to write to my MP.

I work in the same industry in a very tourism reliant area. If this happens, I will be writing to my MP again. This is not sustainable without help.

[quote Flapjacker48]@Justcannotbearsed Sorry this such a middle class comment - just how many people do you think go skiing in France? A tiny proportion of the UK population, hence impact will be minimal.[/quote]
About 3/4 million in a normal year, but this ain’t a normal year. But it’s part of the pattern of people changing behaviour , not going away at Christmas, not travelling. So they aren’t at risk of sudden lockdown or isolation.

@Mindareno

rrhuth

I know that. But people will die in the car parks in February or whenever we open up. We cannot do anything with the time bought by the lockdown.

The govt should have been trying to increase NHS capacity all along, which is the only answer given so many people won’t have the vaccine.

If you push it back the other pressures on the NHS are lower.

To paraphrase from Blair era politics - if your answer is 'let them die in the car parks' you are asking the wrong question.

We will have to deal with what is next after we have dealt with what is coming up. That is how crises work.

I agree about what should have been done, but we have a Tory government so we are where we are.

@Chickenrun771

it is WONDERFUL. to see this many people on the thread speaking up, and out. hold that thought, and that feeling. anger is better than despair.

Is it though, if the anger is going to make people do something that is ultimately self-defeating?

Setting fire to your hair is apparently cathartic too.

Well I have a holiday let business that was given a LOT of public cash to stay closed.

Perhaps we can collectively afford to pay me thousands of pounds again.

It’s closed in the winter anyway, so I stand to gain.

Absolutely ludicrous.

@Mindareno

Still don’t understand the longer term purpose of this lockdown. Ok, people are saying it will “slow the spread”. Yes it will - but surely as soon as we open up again (in 2 weeks or 6 months), omicron will just sky rocket.

The first lockdown we hoped to get numbers low enough to control with rule of 6, and test and trace. That was the original strain, and far less infectious (and it still didn’t work). The second lockdown was to buy time to vaccinate everyone.

What’s the longer term strategy with this lockdown?

You turn the protective effect of vaccinations against transmission for the double jabbed from 30% lower (Pfizer) or 10% (AZ) to 70% or higher with a booster.

If you make people more unable to be infected, they automatically cant give it to others, so there is a compound effect on case numbers. That reduces it substantially a lot quicker than if you are just reliant on 2 doses.

It does make sense just for a firebreak for this reason. You have to really understand the principles of compound maths (which is like compound interest on mortgages) which i know isn't well understood.

But yeah there is a good case to be made here to shorting everything and reducing pressure on hospitals here.

But i dont know that everyone will get this at all.

I think there is a section of the U.K. that love lock downs/aren’t affected by lockdowns other than saving money on commuting costs/childcare etc who are up in arms that we aren’t already in lockdown and are annoyed that the government haven’t kept us all indoors throughout the summer or think we should already be in lockdown.

And then there is the rest who can’t wfh, have gone out each day and those that just can’t do another lockdown. Those that did have Christmas parties and saw relatives and had people over (because the pubs where you could SD were shut) and just wanted for good or bad some normal interaction with other human beings.

Dh was advised to shield during the first and subsequent lockdowns. It took such a toll on his mental health after the first lockdown that he vowed never to shield again and ignored any other instructions to stay indoors and it was pointless after the first lockdown as the rest of the family went out to work each day, mixing with loads of people, without masks and then were coming home to mix with him.
There was no way we could have stayed at home as we are all self employed and bills needed paying and the government only included Dd in their furlough scheme.

Dh said after the first lockdown he would rather be dead than put himself into a self imposed ban of not going out of the house for even a day again.
It affected him so badly that I doubt he will ever hold down a job again.

I think part of the government know deep down that bringing in a 2 week circuit breaker lockdown is going to be largely ignored. That they are going to wreck the hospitality industry and other industries like the West End, the High Street and long term negatively affect more people than any Covid virus will do. I think they are weighing up how many deaths there could be through Omicrom and how many deaths through people losing their businesses, jobs and livelihood. Or people who works just to keep themselves busy and to stave off dementia
I do think in the following few years there will be a spike in dementia cases.

And then there are others who form part of the government or advise the government who think that everyone will vigorously adhere to what they say just because the government have said it and will stay at home because the science, on its own, makes sense.

I think for the most part people did adhere to the first lockdown but by the December lockdown I think only a few were taking any notice. It was business as usual just with on line shopping instead of going to the local high street/mall and having people over stead of going to the pub or a restaurant.

Or having a drink and a dance with the very people you work with who you had been stood/sat next to, chatted to, all day/week/month/year
That was the most ridiculous rule and I think many people took no notice of it because if someone was infectious then Covid wasn’t going to wait till work was over to infect another person.

We will have to deal with what is next after we have dealt with what is coming up. That is how crises work

Right but my point is the crisis will be identical. It will be the same crisis in perpetuity. So we end the lockdown and look to the next crisis. How do we deal with that? Oh yes, lockdown. Pretty much immediately given how infectious omicron is. And repeat.

We will have to deal with what is next after we have dealt with what is coming up. That is how crises work.

They work by planning ahead. You can’t just say “we need to do this now to avoid the bad thing” if all it does is push the bad thing two weeks down the road.

@WonderfulYou

Hospitality is on its knees. On its knees. A two week circuit breaker is going to destroy businesses, many workers will lose their jobs.

What about hospitals?
They are already at breaking point. We can fund hospitality establishments but we can’t magic up more hospital staff.

As I said, if I thought it would work I would still support it despite it possibly putting me on the dole. My daughter is a HCA, my Son in Law a carer, my Mum is 84, I do it for them. I have supported and complied with every measure so far, jabbed, boosted, masked, stayed at home etc etc. This variant was not unforeseen, and there will be more variants. There needs to be a long term strategy, not a knee jerk reaction. People need an element of stability in their lives and financial stability is important, mental stability is important. We may as well get back in our gardens and clap for all the good this will do the NHS. Its a sticking plaster on a broken leg.

@Poetrypatty

The concern I'd have is that I don't trust it'd be two weeks. What if it turns into two months or more Having a government you don't trust is the pits.

See my previous post above.

I have my doubts about it being a fortnight, but i also don't think it will be much longer either

If only because of the finances on businesses.

This is delayed, tg due to Christmas, but also will likely only dampen a bit - if we’re not past peak which could happen at same time

It might stop people calling out for more / not all I can imagine it already, same old cries to shut things

Compund interest folks.

Understand your Compound interest.

@rrhuth

I already responded point by point to your misleading original post.

To this one - Yes, it's effective to stand up against a government that has turned against its people and turned up the dial on authoritarianism.

Just because you, Rrhuth, think things should be done one way, does not mean they should be. That's a mark of democracy. It's the people's choice, or should be, whereas right now it is not.

There is a HUGE and growing portion of the country in dissent, and they will be heard, or they will become angrier as time goes on.

And so the cycle should repeat, as it has, throughout history - once those in power go overboard and abuse it.

If this is a crisis, link me to the stats on huge death tolls in any present western country. Link me to the stats on people dying in carparks and in the street. And let us investigate why, oh why, is Britain losing its head over a variant which is in SA considered nothing to worry about what-so-ever, in a country largely unvaccinated, and affected by HIV. If anything, you'd think they'd be worse off than anyone.

But nope.

People are waking up.

History will view this only one way, and I'm glad to be on the right side of it. I'll respond no more, as I consider if you're at this point and still complying, it's hopeless for you.

Not your selfish thoughts of your New Years Eve being cancelled. It is our hospitals and their staff that will suffer from overcrowding with this new variant. Quit being selfish.

@allDanja2010 I'm actually in the camp that thinks the government should have acted far earlier than they already have rather than let Omicron spread like wildfire and leave businesses unsupported as they essentially instigated a stealth lockdown. I can think that and also be disappointed that I will have to spend NYE on my own, just like last year. We've all had to make sacrifices and compromises for the past 2 years.

I agree with you buster and am not saying school and uni staff health should be compromised in any way.the other mitigation s you mentioned need to be brought in and I would be happy to pay more tax to institute them .I actually think the damage to children and young people's mental health is a bigger and more potentially devastating problem than the education disruption.

@Mindareno

We will have to deal with what is next after we have dealt with what is coming up. That is how crises work

Right but my point is the crisis will be identical. It will be the same crisis in perpetuity. So we end the lockdown and look to the next crisis. How do we deal with that? Oh yes, lockdown. Pretty much immediately given how infectious omicron is. And repeat.

No, not in perpetuity.

For the following reasons (there may be others):

• the more boosters that are given before infection, the fewer hospitalisations there will be
• the longer there is before the peak, the more you can clear hospitals (elective surgery, bed blocking etc.)
• the further past peak winter time you get, the fewer other winter illness cases are to come in (pneumonia etc)
• the further into the wave you get, the fewer new hosts there are amongst younger people

Ask yourself honestly - do you really think that you are thinking abut this in a way the chief medical officer has not considered? Highly unlikely. We have known for two weeks that Omicron was going to be fast and we might need to do this.

@WonderfulYou

A circuit breaker is fine, I think most people would be ok with that but the issue would be if it lasted longer than the 2 weeks which it probably would.

Exactly...like last January when everyone thought schools were just going to close for a couple of weeks...

@SpookyScarySkeletons

Same here *@Mummyoflittledragon* apart from a Christmas party I went to with my sister I only leave the house for medical appointments.

I'm meant to be hosting my parents, sister and Nana on the 29th for a little Christmas party, buffet and presents. If Boris announces this before that date I will be absolutely devastated.

I will have family to my home over christmas and new year no matter what "rules" the uk govt tries to impose on us. No one is going to tell us we cannot get together. My 82 year old mother is the most insistent about this. Quite frankly Boris et al can get fucked.

I compiled and comply with all measures from government and some of my children who are at university locked themselves and their housemates down so we are not anti lockdown

redtoothbrush

It’s a bit patronising to assume I don’t understand. I do. But the problem is that lots of people won’t get their boosters, and lots of people haven’t been jabbed at all. The unvaccinated are going to continue to apply huge pressure on the NHS. Boosters won’t change that.

Are you saying that 2 weeks of boosters after Christmas has sufficient impact on transmission that sufficiently fewer unvaccinated (or CEV jabbed) people catch it that the NHS can cope with this astonishingly infectious strain? Is that modelling available because I have never heard that and I have been trying to follow along in some detail.

I’m not anti lockdown, supported the first two. I’m just really concerned that this is genuinely kicking the can down the road with nothing to really hope it won’t just be a problem again as soon as we open up given the rate of growth.

Still don’t understand the longer term purpose of this lockdown. Ok, people are saying it will “slow the spread”. Yes it will - but surely as soon as we open up again (in 2 weeks or 6 months), omicron will just sky rocket.

I see it as a conveyor belt in a factory.
When more people catch covid and go to hospital, the more items are added to the conveyor belt.
The staff are having to work harder and harder and it ends up impossible to sort all of the items.
The best idea would be to pause the machine so they can catch up with themselves.

That’s what the firebreak would be. Literally just to slow the spread for those two weeks so the hospitals can catch up on themselves and it doesn’t get to breaking point.

In theory it’s a perfect idea. Whether it works in reality I have no idea.

Have any other countries done the 2 week firebreak without the long lockdowns?

[quote Chickenrun771]@rrhuth

I already responded point by point to your misleading original post.

To this one - Yes, it's effective to stand up against a government that has turned against its people and turned up the dial on authoritarianism.

Just because you, Rrhuth, think things should be done one way, does not mean they should be. That's a mark of democracy. It's the people's choice, or should be, whereas right now it is not.

There is a HUGE and growing portion of the country in dissent, and they will be heard, or they will become angrier as time goes on.

And so the cycle should repeat, as it has, throughout history - once those in power go overboard and abuse it.

If this is a crisis, link me to the stats on huge death tolls in any present western country. Link me to the stats on people dying in carparks and in the street. And let us investigate why, oh why, is Britain losing its head over a variant which is in SA considered nothing to worry about what-so-ever, in a country largely unvaccinated, and affected by HIV. If anything, you'd think they'd be worse off than anyone.

But nope.

People are waking up.

History will view this only one way, and I'm glad to be on the right side of it. I'll respond no more, as I consider if you're at this point and still complying, it's hopeless for you.[/quote]
You use the word 'democracy' a lot but do not seem to recognise that:

a) measures are coted on by democratically elected representatives
b) opinion polling consistently shows public support for public health protections

I do not 'want' any lockdown but if the alternative is an overwhelmed health system, I know which side my bread is buttered.

You sound a lot like Lawrence Fox's lot with your 'people are waking up'

I foresee a great many house parties on NYE if this goes ahead. Now is a good time to buy shares in off licences.

Ask yourself honestly - do you really think that you are thinking abut this in a way the chief medical officer has not considered? Highly unlikely. We have known for two weeks that Omicron was going to be fast and we might need to do this

I haven’t said I know more than Chris Whitty, or that this lockdown shouldn’t happen. I don’t have any answers to an impossible situation. I’m just concerned about what happens afterwards, which I don’t think is unreasonable. I also haven’t heard Chris Whitty publicly say he thinks a 2 week firebreak is going to solve this?

2 weeks won’t be enough