Good News from S.A, and other research

[TheReluctantPhoenix]

I am far from a COVID denier, and think that Omicron does represent a real short term threat, and that people should be taking appropriate precautions (mask wearing, limiting parties etc).

However, equally, I don’t think exaggerating a threat in order to influence public behaviour is helpful. In fact, it is often counterproductive.

So, from The Times today:

South Africa optimistic as Omicron case numbers pass peak

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3db59d20-5ebc-11ec-aa95-09743a5edefd?shareToken=20b8df7c6f4f58d8bf6c0ca900629102

And a study showing that Omicron replicates more slowly in lungs:

www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-thrives-airways-not-lungs-new-data-asymptomatic-cases-2021-12-15/

None of this is ‘proof’ yet, and we will definitely have a bumpy few weeks, but it is definitely cause for cautious optimism.

Clearly, even if this version is ‘the flu’ or even milder, if everyone has it at the same time, it is still a real threat to the functioning of the country.

But, to me, this does seem like the ‘exit wave’ people have long been talking about.

Francois Balloux on Facebook made an interesting comment: that if Omicron does turn out to be "intrinsically" significantly milder (not just "looking milder coz most of us have some immunity), then this will create a dilemma for countries which have suppressed COVID well so far--should they let it run a bit now, or wait for updated boosters? (I think the latter, frankly. I just can't imagine the CCP being prepared to let COVID spread at this stage).

Of course, it may be that the "intrinsic" difference is quite small and that the main factor is that almost all of us now have some t-cell immunity to COVID.

The MSM won’t report any of this good news, sadly.

It’s in The Times. That’s mainstream.

@billycorn,

My links were to The Times and Reuters-they are pretty main stream.

Scientists advising the government will give a balanced picture. However, the messaging going out will be given by behaviourists, who want to err on the side of caution.

I don’t think the above approach has worked, especially given the fact the politicians clearly don’t believe it themselves.

It's summer in South Africa and they have a young population

@Kokeshi123 I can't imagine it either re the CCP but I am very intrigued by what their strategy is and how things will pan out. Even if they did decide to let it spread now I'm not sure the general population would react well at all. They've been taught to avoid it at all costs for two full years now so surely the prospect of it spreading must seem extremely scary to most people in China.

That's the impression I'm getting from people there anyway.

@User135644,

The research on viral replication in the lungs was done in Petri dishes.

There is a real condescension towards SA over here, which is quite unwarranted. They discovered Omicron due to their comprehensive genomic testing program, and the scientists saying it is milder have taken demographics into account.

@User135644

It's summer in South Africa and they have a young population

They have a large immunocompromised and undernourished population with poor access to healthcare for many

The apparent low virulence of omicron there is not because it's summer - good weather and being outdoors might affect transmission but not the virulence of disease caused once infected.

@User135644

It's summer in South Africa and they have a young population

Their rates of vaccination are also far lower.

Honestly, some people on MN are DESPERATE for misery, desperate I tell you!

Given how fast it spreads it needs to be an awful lot milder for it not to be a problem

What might be good news is that it's peaking at the same level as delta which suggests I think that quite a lot of people are immune.

I’ll welcome good news at this point

It is mild. Loads have it and no one is dying so it's mild- government have done a fine job of scaring people and making people put themselves in a lockdown!!

@Remmy123,

This is where I want to stick to facts, not propaganda in either direction.

Dying takes 20+ days from infection, so we really can’t look at deaths yet. Hospitalisations are pointing in that direction, though.

But, as I also said, even ‘the flu’ can be devastating for society if too many people have it at the same time.

I just wish the government would take behaviourists out of the equation and trust people to act sensibly if told the truth.

May be too late for that though, they have killed people’s trust.

thereluctantphoenix yes I think you are right. Exaggerating threat to induce fear to improve compliance. That worked before but I think now it can make people dig in to more extreme positions as they feel they're being played. And also, personally I notice how the cranked up coverage starts to give me this constant hum of low level anxiety and that makes me very cross and less likely to want to listen to even reasonable viewpoints.

@User135644

It's summer in South Africa and they have a young population

This one keeps getting thrown out.

Yes, demographically the population skews younger. But there are still millions of people over 60 in South Africa. It’s not Logan’s Run 🙄

Also South Africa has huge health inequality, poorer access to good nutrition for a high proportion of the population, and more immunosuppressed people than the UK. 20% of the SA population — about 7.7 million people — are HIV-positive. And about 90,000 people a year die of TB.

It’s lazy and ignorant to dismiss the findings from South Africa as meaningless because a few circumstances differ from the UK’s. Their doctors and health organisations have been at the forefront of this, and been very open with the rest of the world about it.

Covid has not had the same impact in Africa generally that it's had in Europe. Everyone keeps mentioning the younger population. Noone has mentioned obesity. Surely that's one of the big differences between the impact here and in the African continent?

Answering my own question here - Africa generally has lower obesity rates than the UK, but not South Africa. SA has a slightly higher obesity rate than we have.

SA's population is not much younger than India or Brazil, and it has loads of obesity. It's a middle income country, not South Sudan or whatever.

I agree we should be cautious, but so far it's looking fairly hopeful to me.

According to my Zoe app active cases round me are falling.

It seems to be pointing to this variant being the one we wanted to see, transmissible but mild. If we didn't have the isolation rules we likely wouldn't be seeing some of the impact on services we are. A lot of infected people are ok but have to be off sick for the whole period.

I think there are good signs there for cautious optimism despite the differences in population.

What is interesting me is the science indication that Omicron is replicated in the lungs less. This makes it 70 times I think I read more transmissible. But if this is true then this could be why it is appearing less severe. So far we have been speculating the apparent mildness is due to previous immunity and vaccinations (though S.Africa have low vaccination rate). I am sure this is having some impact but is it the whole story?

For me this is a big thing. Lungs are where Covid pneumonia starts. I guess it’s still early days but I’d love to see more info on this.

I currently have suspected omicron. As do about 12 of my friends. We are all double or vacces but we are all having a milder illness than friends who had delta a month or so ago. More cold symptoms for some. Sore throat (would this tally with it replicating in upper airways?) bit tired but not sleeping in the day. All this is anecdotal but there’s lots of Omicron around now so we can start to see some patterns.

I am quite prone to chest infections and had a lung infection a couple of years ago. This illness has gone nowhere near my lungs and my breathing is fine, for which I am grateful.

Early days but let’s keep looking at the data.

Double or triple vacced.

It is good news.

I currently have Covid too, guessing Omicron, very mild more like flu in terms of my head and body aching but no runny nose or cough and no chest issues at all (so far...). I am also CV, have asthma and have had pneumonia in the past so am surprised that it hasn't hit my chest.

I’m loving reading some positivity!

Also, why is everyone suddenly quiet on the antivirals that were being sung from the rooftops a few weeks back?

Can be given at home to vulnerable/susceptible positive cases and reduce risk of hospital admission massively - ie/ thus protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed….???
All of a sudden it’s a booster or nothing?
Either they bragged without good cause or aren’t mentioning the to terrify people in to getting their booster?

Should add I’m totally pro jabs and have had both mine and booster booked for this weekend so I’m not being a twat about that - just genuinely confused as to why there is no acknowledgement we now have the ability to help keep people out of hospital and prevent them from becoming seriously unwell when that should actually be a big part of the picture and plan to beat omicron!