Good News from S.A, and other research

[TheReluctantPhoenix]

I am far from a COVID denier, and think that Omicron does represent a real short term threat, and that people should be taking appropriate precautions (mask wearing, limiting parties etc).

However, equally, I don’t think exaggerating a threat in order to influence public behaviour is helpful. In fact, it is often counterproductive.

So, from The Times today:

South Africa optimistic as Omicron case numbers pass peak

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3db59d20-5ebc-11ec-aa95-09743a5edefd?shareToken=20b8df7c6f4f58d8bf6c0ca900629102

And a study showing that Omicron replicates more slowly in lungs:

www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-thrives-airways-not-lungs-new-data-asymptomatic-cases-2021-12-15/

None of this is ‘proof’ yet, and we will definitely have a bumpy few weeks, but it is definitely cause for cautious optimism.

Clearly, even if this version is ‘the flu’ or even milder, if everyone has it at the same time, it is still a real threat to the functioning of the country.

But, to me, this does seem like the ‘exit wave’ people have long been talking about.

The anti viral meds are being given to people , bbc news had a report from a hospital in London ( tooting ) and they were sending them out to people ( can't remember the name of the meds though)
It sounded positive.

@Hartleyhare1206 I don't think they have enough of the anti virals yet for that possibly? My recollection is an order of something like 100k which wouldn't go so far. It would be another line of defence but not one that can replace millions of vaccines.

It’s great news! I had to go onto the second page in this topic to find this thread though. Doom and gloom threads seem a lot more popular

They always are @bumbleymummy

Remember the thread about young children being hospitalised with Covid in S.Africa? The minute someone posted some evidence showing that actually wasn’t the case the thread went very quiet. Always happens..

I must know around 35 people with omicron at the moment (outbreak at work in the London office & among London/Surrey based family). All extremely mild. Sore throat, headache & feeling a bit run down. My CEV colleague was terrified at the weekend bless her, shes on maintenance chemo. But she’s been the same as everyone else. Just cold like symptoms. She’s on day 6 now, feeling far more relaxed & enjoying Christmas films 😄

Also, not one of those people have lost their smell or taste! I’m jealous. I had Delta nearly 3 months ago & my smell is still not back 😭

Oh I wasn’t suggesting they should replace vaccines - far from it - I just meant that there seems to be a rule by fear approach because if we don’t have jabs the NHS will cave. And apparently the jabs may or may not be enough to stop that happening anyway? But if there is medication that can be given to patients at home that makes the majority of poorlier people avoid needing hospital care (ie not causing people to be queuing in ambulances outside hospital for hours and not running out of oxygen and ventilators) why aren’t we a) exploiting that and b) including it proudly as a tool in our armour?
Like I say, I presume the logic is to strike enough dread in to people that they’ll get their boosters. Which I’ll stress again I’m all I’m favour of, honestly!!!! Just mentally, for me, the panic, terror and doom and gloom is hitting me hard. I’m saturated after 2 years of this, the worry, the burden of responsibility I might inadvertently kill an elderly relative by passing on an infection I didn’t even know I had. The worry of my DD having three fucked up accademic years, losing speech after the first lockdown meant not seeing another child for months, the constantly trying not to get fired because I have to have time off from a job where I can’t WFH because school have sent DD home to isolate/test/too many cases that closed her class down and if I do lose my job I’m fucked.
We can’t keep sacrificing everyone’s well being and I’m finding it harder to manage my mental health and anxiety.
I’m just keen to try and balance it all by looking for the positives and the potential for better times being ahead.

There is a story on BBC news right now with the South African health minister saying it appears mild because of prior immunity from vaccines and infection, not because this variant is less virulent as such. Can't link because it's in the breaking news rolling section but this is the text:

"South Africa's health minister says his government believes vaccines and a high level of prior Covid-19 infection are contributing to the wave of milder disease caused by the Omicron variant.

There have been some early suggestions that the Omicron variant driving the country's fourth wave is causing a less severe illness than previous variants in South Africa.

But Joe Phaala told reporters on Friday that the government does not believe the variant is necessarily less virulent than previous waves of the virus.

He said the country was benefiting from the combination of vaccinations and the "natural immunity of people who have already had contact with the virus".

Michelle Groome, from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, added that there had been an uptick in Covid-19 hospital admissions and deaths in recent days.

Vaccination levels in South Africa are high by continental standards, with 44% of the population having received at least one jab, though this is below the government's target to vaccinate 67% of the population by the end of 2021."

Well we’re in an even better position wrt immunity after vaccination/infection.

Iirc

@nordica,

I prefer to read studies by scientists, as opposed to what politicians say. Note, also, the word ‘necessarily’ in what he says.

Politicians are trying to manage behaviour, as opposed to releasing unbiased data.

I think the study about upper airway replication vs lung replication is quite compelling, and backs up the early anecdotal data from both S.A and the Zoe study.

I think that’s definitely part of it. Obviously vaccines and natural immunity playing a huge part.

I have no doubt if I wasn’t double vaccinated this would not be as mild as it is for me now.

I’m interested in the new evidence showing it replicates less in the lungs though. This may come to nothing but I’d like to see more data on that.

My symptoms have been muscle aches and tiredness. Nothing respiratory at all. This seems different to delta. This has also been reported in the press and S.Africa. The symptoms for Omicron are a scratchy throat and muscle aches and fatigue. Are we saying vaccinations and prior immunity have changed symptom presentation?

Or are the symptoms of omicron milder? It’s an ever changing situation as more and more get infected over here. We should know in a few weeks.

I am cautiously optimistic that we are now nearing the end of the pandemic. Fingers crossed.

The study did emphasise that all the children in hospital with omicron in SA were already there for another reason and had mild symptoms. I find that reassuring.

I’m clinging onto any glimmer of hope available right now and trying to avoid the ‘shut schools now’ threads.

@Delatron Would you be willing to post the approximate age range of your friendship group who have suspected Omicron? My view is that we'll only really know whether Omicron is genuinely milder once lots of elderly people have been exposed to it and had time to develop symptoms.

@AchillesLastStand

The study did emphasise that all the children in hospital with omicron in SA were already there for another reason and had mild symptoms. I find that reassuring.

I’m clinging onto any glimmer of hope available right now and trying to avoid the ‘shut schools now’ threads.

I don’t blame you. It’s good school holidays are now

Also on dc in hospital that is encouraging, I remember a lot around that at one point

Yes @Boosterquery I do agree.

We are all mid to late 40s.

Bookmarking as I really need this thread for my mental health right now! Thanks for starting it, OP!

Delatron same here, assuming Omicron, muscle aches and headaches, so mildly flu-like but with no cold symptoms or cough (am hoping it continues).

The 30+ people I know are aged 20-75 .. majority in 40 & 50’s (work colleagues). About 15 of them. 5 are aged 60-70 (family) and 1 is 75 (in law). The rest under 40 (work & family).

So quite a spread in my group. The CEV person is 57.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@Remmy123,

This is where I want to stick to facts, not propaganda in either direction.

Dying takes 20+ days from infection, so we really can’t look at deaths yet. Hospitalisations are pointing in that direction, though.

But, as I also said, even ‘the flu’ can be devastating for society if too many people have it at the same time.

I just wish the government would take behaviourists out of the equation and trust people to act sensibly if told the truth.

May be too late for that though, they have killed people’s trust.[/quote]
I just wish the government would fund the nhs so that “the flu” and anything like that is NOT disastrous for the system. We need winter capacity.

@museumum,

It would be crazy to fund the NHS to pandemic levels for a roughly once in a century event.

The critical factor is staff, not equipment. Even if we could get enough staff, what would these doctors and nurses be doing the majority of the time?

We should fund the NHS more anyway, but pandemics will always require restrictions on the public (as they have even in the best health systems globally).

Obviously not pandemic levels. But every single year flu season brings the nhs to its knees (at least near me).

The problem is not that the NHS is not given enough cash - far from it
but that it is managed so shambolically, the money does not make its way down to where it is needed.

The UK spends more of its economic output on health than any other country in Europe. Spending on health here has gone up 42pc in the last 15 years compared to schools, where spending has gone up just 3pc.

This article is revelatory: www.spectator.co.uk/article/hospital-pass-the-nhs-is-on-life-support?fbclid=IwAR2Pqnmc1nRLaNpO12bM0-TLKdPxO5JRMeS-rCYqqZKEYe8zRrdLIXpALrQ

Hospital admissions have already gone up

You are lucky - 3 weeks since I had covid - no health problems before - however this has floored me and left me breathless - it’s horrible I only hope it is not going to be long covid!

@Kokeshi123

Francois Balloux on Facebook made an interesting comment: that if Omicron does turn out to be "intrinsically" significantly milder (not just "looking milder coz most of us have some immunity), then this will create a dilemma for countries which have suppressed COVID well so far--should they let it run a bit now, or wait for updated boosters? (I think the latter, frankly. I just can't imagine the CCP being prepared to let COVID spread at this stage).

Of course, it may be that the "intrinsic" difference is quite small and that the main factor is that almost all of us now have some t-cell immunity to COVID.

Brilliant, yeh let Delta and Ormi run riot at the same time through those zero covid countries.

Some seem to have the idea that omicron is pushing our Delta.

It's just outpacing Delta's slower advance.