Good News from S.A, and other research

[TheReluctantPhoenix]

I am far from a COVID denier, and think that Omicron does represent a real short term threat, and that people should be taking appropriate precautions (mask wearing, limiting parties etc).

However, equally, I don’t think exaggerating a threat in order to influence public behaviour is helpful. In fact, it is often counterproductive.

So, from The Times today:

South Africa optimistic as Omicron case numbers pass peak

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3db59d20-5ebc-11ec-aa95-09743a5edefd?shareToken=20b8df7c6f4f58d8bf6c0ca900629102

And a study showing that Omicron replicates more slowly in lungs:

www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-thrives-airways-not-lungs-new-data-asymptomatic-cases-2021-12-15/

None of this is ‘proof’ yet, and we will definitely have a bumpy few weeks, but it is definitely cause for cautious optimism.

Clearly, even if this version is ‘the flu’ or even milder, if everyone has it at the same time, it is still a real threat to the functioning of the country.

But, to me, this does seem like the ‘exit wave’ people have long been talking about.

Yes @bumbleymummy and we can’t use the ‘younger population’ ‘summer’ argument for Denmark.

I know we have to ‘wait and see’ but I also think we shouldn’t ignore positive data from other countries

@bumbleymummy

Apparently people in their 50s/60s are struggling to get booster appointments because they’ve been booked up by younger people.

The booking is open to all- I'm fed up of finger pointing at young people.

They are being TOLD to book a jabs and a booster to protect their loved ones and the general public. They are doing as they are TOLD.

The slots that you report as being booked up by young people are available to the older population too- it's not fair to blame younger people for being quick off their mark in booking one! There was also a significant amount of time where slits were open to older people only.

@freckles20 I’m not blaming the younger people. I think it was a bad policy decision. People in more vulnerable groups (more likely to end up in hospital if they get infected) shouldn’t be waiting to have their booster because they weren’t ‘quick enough off the mark’ against younger people who are lower risk.

@bumbleymummy,

This is a rare thread where I agree with your posts!

In this instance, good news is being hidden, rather than bad news.

Where I will always disagree, though, is vaccinations. They are our single best tool in getting society back to normal and I think that, when people opt out, they are being highly irresponsible.

Vaccinations are also something we do really well; we inoculated close to 1 million people yesterday! If there were a vaccination world championships, we would be a guaranteed gold!

The problem was with the 40-50 age group. We had AZ 6 months ago.

At the beginning of December I tried to book a booster and they stuck to the 6 month rule. Earliest I could eventually get was 21st Dec. People were turned away from walk-ins for being a few days shy of 6 months. Then it moved to 3 months and opened to everyone. I moved my appointment a week earlier but got Covid a day before my appointment.

The lack of haste in changing to 3 months left lots of 40-50 years olds with waning immunity coming up to Christmas. I know you can get appointments now but it’s too late for many who contracted Covid before their booster and with the vaccines wearing off.

Yet now 18 year olds can get a booster with a 3 months gap. They’re the age group that need it the least.

The message being sold to younger people is that they need to have it to protect their loved ones.

Walk in centres are doing a fantastic job in my area, so there's no major issue provided people are able to queue- except for the unfortunate cases where people can't get transport to a centre.

ICL have just admitted that omicron is 40-45% less likely to cause hospital admission. This seems a very precise number to me, given the admitted uncertainties around it. Of course, they have caveated this with the higher infectivity etc.

As I said in my previous post, they do seem to get a lot of publicity from being hawkish on Covid and their earlier rushed research saying it was ‘probably’ no less dangerous is seemingly increasingly political rather than scientific.

Meanwhile a study in Scotland is claiming that , to date, they have had 15 hospital admissions from OMICRON vs an expected 47 if the strain had the same severity as delta.

And, Gauteng seems to have peaked at a 36% infection rate, leading many to question some of the SIRS assumptions (homogeneous mixing, for instance).

I suspect we are already peaking in UK and, after the normal Christmas frenzy, it will rapidly abate in January.