Good News from S.A, and other research

[TheReluctantPhoenix]

I am far from a COVID denier, and think that Omicron does represent a real short term threat, and that people should be taking appropriate precautions (mask wearing, limiting parties etc).

However, equally, I don’t think exaggerating a threat in order to influence public behaviour is helpful. In fact, it is often counterproductive.

So, from The Times today:

South Africa optimistic as Omicron case numbers pass peak

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3db59d20-5ebc-11ec-aa95-09743a5edefd?shareToken=20b8df7c6f4f58d8bf6c0ca900629102

And a study showing that Omicron replicates more slowly in lungs:

www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-thrives-airways-not-lungs-new-data-asymptomatic-cases-2021-12-15/

None of this is ‘proof’ yet, and we will definitely have a bumpy few weeks, but it is definitely cause for cautious optimism.

Clearly, even if this version is ‘the flu’ or even milder, if everyone has it at the same time, it is still a real threat to the functioning of the country.

But, to me, this does seem like the ‘exit wave’ people have long been talking about.

@worriedatthemoment

Hospital admissions have already gone up

With or from? Iirc around 70% of hospital covid cases in SA were incidental - people were admitted for other things but tested positive. If omicron is spreading quickly then this could be the case here as well.

let Delta and Ormi run riot at the same time through those zero covid countries.

It's not a question of outsiders "letting" or not letting Omi and Delta race through any country. Each sovereign country has the right to make its own choices about borders. China will make its own decisions.

@TheReluctantPhoenix

The fact is it’s too early and unfortunately many anti vaccine and conspiracy theories people get behind saying it’s the final ever and it’s mild.

I can see the poorly veiled stances here.

ICL have so far found no difference in mildness between delta and om.

apple.news/AjIHn0XtQSLifd0mt1OFvpA

My area is currently going through a strong Omicron wave. The population is largely double-vaccinated, but right at the end of the vaccines' effectiveness and the majority have not yet had their booster. Very few have had a Covid infection in the past. It is summertime, but that doesn't seem to be impeding the spread of Omicron. It really is incredibly infectious; at some recent local events (nightclubs) up to 50% of attendees have been infected from 1 (possibly 2) infected people present.

We are a relatively small region and Omicron case numbers are more than doubling every day. Christmas shopping is in full swing but 2/4 of people don't wear masks in shopping centres. Many of the shops are closed, though, as well as the pubs, restaurants, and other businesses, and they need Covid cleaning or they simply cannot staff them.

@Cascascascas,

We do need more data and research is conflicting.

If you look at my OP, though, I provide two pieces of research. The first is large scale research in SA, a far less vaccinated population, the second a mechanistic reason to support why Omicron may be less virulent.

I am somewhat distrustful of the ICL research for the following reasons:

They seem very enthused to get out there first, rather than being careful and thorough. They have also consistently overestimated the threat and garnered headlines thereby.

I do wonder what their sample looked like, given that the average hospitalisation time post infection is about 9 days, if it is due to Covid, rather than ‘with’ Covid (being in hospital for another reason). Given that our population is 80% double vaxed, I suspect the actual sample must have been minuscule.

The Zoe symptom study, albeit it poor in quality, due to self-reporting, is a far larger sample, and they are reporting milder illness.

Given how many have Omicron now, in about 10 days, we should know definitively one way or the other.

@Dishhh

My area is currently going through a strong Omicron wave. The population is largely double-vaccinated, but right at the end of the vaccines' effectiveness and the majority have not yet had their booster. Very few have had a Covid infection in the past. It is summertime, but that doesn't seem to be impeding the spread of Omicron. It really is incredibly infectious; at some recent local events (nightclubs) up to 50% of attendees have been infected from 1 (possibly 2) infected people present.

We are a relatively small region and Omicron case numbers are more than doubling every day. Christmas shopping is in full swing but 2/4 of people don't wear masks in shopping centres. Many of the shops are closed, though, as well as the pubs, restaurants, and other businesses, and they need Covid cleaning or they simply cannot staff them.

Have you seen an impact on healthcare? Eg numbers in hospital

Hurrah for a cautiously optimistic thread. It's giving my spirits a boost.

In Scotland where omicron cases are thought to be more than 50% of covid cases now the number of people in hospital who have covid is the lowest it's been for ages.

@mibbelucieachwell

Hurrah for a cautiously optimistic thread. It's giving my spirits a boost.

In Scotland where omicron cases are thought to be more than 50% of covid cases now the number of people in hospital who have covid is the lowest it's been for ages.

Really wow

Wouldn’t we see change on this by now if worse

And yes re lag but it’s only about 7 days iirc for hospitalisation

Thank God for this thread. Thanks op.

Really needed the glimmer of hope around all the doom and gloom.

@MarshaBradyo

Have you seen an impact on healthcare? Eg numbers in hospital

The numbers aren't too bad yet for both ICU and normal hospitalisation. This wave is really in its infancy though; that is the sobering part. I do hope it stays this way.

Only my opinion, but the scientists and politicians are obviously looking at the data every day and next week will show them how many are in hospital. It's good that it is dropping off in Scotland and if people can stay out of ICU this is very good news too.
The alarm bells will ring when ( or if ) more people end up in there.
The circuit breaker may never happen and it might all ok , but then again it might not.
It's still a waiting game for now.
The media do not help because they make it sound as if it will happen. The boosters are being administered around the clock too
It's the unvaccinated that may cause a problem.
I think that by the end of next week we all may know what might happen , but it is the uncertainty again that is hard to live with of course.

It's the unvaccinated that may cause a problem.

Stop. The majority of unvaccinated people are young and at low risk of hospitalisation. The data from SA is indicating a much lower rate of hospitalisation and

A high* percentage of our most vulnerable…

I'm not ' flaming' the unvaccinated, the ones I know who are refusing the vaccine are in their 50s and 60s. Most young people I know are having the jabs.
I think that they may end up in hospital.
That was what I meant.

Apparently people in their 50s/60s are struggling to get booster appointments because they’ve been booked up by younger people.

Let's not forget that it is summer in South Africa at the moment. Omicron looks likely to be mild for most but is transmissible in much greater numbers so even if a much smaller proportion need hospital treatment than with other variants that could still be in numbers that create untenable pressure on health services in the busiest winter period.

But a much lower percentage needed hospital treatment and for a much shorter time, despite their high case numbers.

Financial Times reporting a high level of incidental infection in London hospitals:

“Of the 169 additional coronavirus-positive patients in hospital, 111 were not being treated primarily for Covid and only incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions, suggesting the figures could overstate the level of additional pressure on the NHS. A similar trend was observed in a hospital in the South African city of Tshwane, the centre of the Omicron outbreak there.”

www.ft.com/content/c14173c9-1ab7-4386-aeae-70cdac666503

It might be summer in South Africa and they might be younger but I don’t understand why this didn’t protect them in their beta wave where there was a lot higher hospitalisation and death, abs where they had a lockdown (not this time) if South Africa is inherently not prone to a problem with covid due to its climate abs population it’s baffling to me they have a higher rate of excess death than we do!! I do think a lot of posters on here seem to think South Africa hasn’t had a problem with covid generally whereas up until now they have abs this wave is different it’s that difference which is interesting for those of us who know that covid is abs always has been a global problem

I know people my age ( 50s) who haven't had anything at all and nothing can persuade them to even have one jab!

@bizboz

Let's not forget that it is summer in South Africa at the moment. Omicron looks likely to be mild for most but is transmissible in much greater numbers so even if a much smaller proportion need hospital treatment than with other variants that could still be in numbers that create untenable pressure on health services in the busiest winter period.

Again, see my post above where I talk about the situation where I live: a Omicron wave in summer in a Covid-naive population. It isn't necessarily turning out to be "mild", either. It is definitely extremely contagious - much more than Delta. Many of our services are closed because they can't be staffed and health services are beginning to feel the stress.

Aus healthcare situation will show something about omicron as the situation is different to here - low immunity from previous waves

I hope that it stays low personally as family there and borders just opened

An update on the drugs talked about earlier in the thread - one already in use, the other starting from today

Covid: Vulnerable NHS patients to be offered new drug www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59721240

Good news @AlexandraEiffel thanks for sharing.

This is the future of living with Covid. Not endless lockdowns

Latest report from Denmark:

files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-19122021-hp16

Some promising news irt % cases bring hospitalised compared to previous variants. (Table 6)