Independent sage: circuit breaker lockdown needed now

[XmasGoose]

I see Independent Sage have said that an immediate circuit breaker lockdown is needed to protect the NHS.

This would involve a total ban on household mixing, all bars, restaurants and indoor venues closing and schools shutting early for Christmas.

Is this needed now to protect the NHS and save lives? Personally I wouldn’t comply with another lockdown.

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1471160024005324804?s=21

"It would be triaged at this point. There’s no way young fit healthy people/children would be left to die on the roads, whilst the staff are only looking after covid patients.@

By whom??

Read what the ouster wrote. You still can't imagine what a collapsed healthcare system would feel like.

Let's hope we never have to find out.

There are some factors that might make it a shorter lockdown though.

We are almost all double vaccinated and half of us have had boosters.

Also, I would wonder whether the short incubation period and high transmissibility might shorten the overall time to reach peak and decline. (albeit with a lot of disruption & hospitalisations meantime)

It seems a bit late in the game for a "circuitbreaker" even if it would be a shorter lockdown.

The major incident is bring caused by people isolating.

It's not even said whether these isolating people are actually ill or not.

This ten day thing really needs to be looked at.

It would be triaged at this point. There’s no way young fit healthy people/children would be left to die on the roads, whilst the staff are only looking after covid patients.

@Starcup

Triaged by who? How does this look in practise - you start turning out COVID+ ICU patients to die at home?

@ChequerBoard

"It would be triaged at this point. There’s no way young fit healthy people/children would be left to die on the roads, whilst the staff are only looking after covid patients.@

By whom??

Read what the ouster wrote. You still can't imagine what a collapsed healthcare system would feel like.

Let's hope we never have to find out.

By whom? By the government/nhs/doctors that would have to implement and ration care.

That was always on the cards with ventilators at the start of it. Can’t you remember when there was talk about doctors having to make decisions as to who would get priority?

I don’t think it ever came to that but if this ends up in a similar situation, do you honestly think they would turn away healthy people after accidents etc because they’re too busy with covid patients??

As I say, if it comes to the crunch tough decisions will be made….

do you honestly think they would turn away healthy people after accidents etc because they’re too busy with covid patients??

As I said @Starcup - genuinely how to you expect this to work in practise? Turf out COVID+ ICU patients out onto the street?

Rationing ventilators made sense because it could be done and adjusted to the situation as appropriate with hospital patients.

But you can't suddenly decide to withdraw care from someone because a healthier person has been in a car crash.

@ollyollyoxenfree

It would be triaged at this point. There’s no way young fit healthy people/children would be left to die on the roads, whilst the staff are only looking after covid patients.

@Starcup

Triaged by who? How does this look in practise - you start turning out COVID+ ICU patients to die at home?

I would imagine it would have to come to something like that, worse case scenario.

The alternative being leaning people dying in the streets after a car crash?…

I wouldn’t want to make the decisions and I feel sorry for anyone that has to and of course that’s why they are trying to stop this happening but if it continues then they will have to triage of course

But you can't suddenly decide to withdraw care from someone because a healthier person has been in a car crash.

I don't see why not. You can withdraw care if it clear the patient isn't going to benefit from it particularly, so I can't see why you wouldn't.

The bottom line is we don't have the resource for the healthcare we think we're entitled to and ultimately difficult decisions will have to be made. The position of the unvaxxed is certainly one to think about.

@ollyollyoxenfree

do you honestly think they would turn away healthy people after accidents etc because they’re too busy with covid patients??

As I said @Starcup - genuinely how to you expect this to work in practise? Turf out COVID+ ICU patients out onto the street?

Rationing ventilators made sense because it could be done and adjusted to the situation as appropriate with hospital patients.

But you can't suddenly decide to withdraw care from someone because a healthier person has been in a car crash.

As I said, no idea how they’ll do it, but if means that thousands of people will die of other things, they’ll have to implement strategies to stop that happening.

They might have a certain number of spaces for covid patients and once it’s full they can’t admit anyone else.

In the same way someone suggested they couldn’t remove someone getting treatment, equally they can’t deny people after accidents either surely?

Hopefully it won’t come to this at all but it’s terrifying to think what could happen

But you can't suddenly decide to withdraw care from someone because a healthier person has been in a car crash.

This sounds like exactly the thing we should be doing to be honest.

It should be criminal to do otherwise. Who would let a 4 year old who needs treatment die outside the hospital to save a 70 year old heart attack?

@TheKeatingFive

But you can't suddenly decide to withdraw care from someone because a healthier person has been in a car crash.

I don't see why not. You can withdraw care if it clear the patient isn't going to benefit from it particularly, so I can't see why you wouldn't.

The bottom line is we don't have the resource for the healthcare we think we're entitled to and ultimately difficult decisions will have to be made. The position of the unvaxxed is certainly one to think about.

This will bells on.

@certaynly

But you can't suddenly decide to withdraw care from someone because a healthier person has been in a car crash.

This sounds like exactly the thing we should be doing to be honest.

It should be criminal to do otherwise. Who would let a 4 year old who needs treatment die outside the hospital to save a 70 year old heart attack?

I completely agree

@Starcup You're still imagining that there are enough staff to man the ambulances to bring the patients to hospital.

And that the A&E is still open for business to do advanced triage.

And that there are any beds, trolleys or corridor spaces left.

What's staggering is that people don't realise that triaging happens everyday in every care setting.

An overwhelmed NHS means that we don't have any more capacity. It's not about triage at that stage.

Interesting news from London that two thirds of ‘covid admissions’ are not actually in hospital because of covid at all.

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1472248618690170883?s=21

Who would let a 4 year old who needs treatment die outside the hospital to save a 70 year old heart attack?

What keeps being missed is that HCPs have to make decisions like this all the time, and have done for years

If the elderly heart attack victim has a really good prospect of recovery the situation obviously changes, but do people really think the very elderly and chronically sick are prioritised for care all the time?

Wish they'd stop dicking about and just announce it. I don't get anxious, but I'm just covid fed up today.

My mum phoned and cancelled Boxing Day lunch at ours, last night.

Right now Dh and I should be at close friends of ours, having dinner and laughing, making cocktails. She had cancer so I understood when she cancelled.

So fed up, of it all.

If it comes on so suddenly, is so transmissible, and has a rather atypical clinical picture, that's not all that surprising.

Is Bojo doing a briefing today still?

[quote ChequerBoard]@Starcup You're still imagining that there are enough staff to man the ambulances to bring the patients to hospital.

And that the A&E is still open for business to do advanced triage.

And that there are any beds, trolleys or corridor spaces left.

What's staggering is that people don't realise that triaging happens everyday in every care setting.

An overwhelmed NHS means that we don't have any more capacity. It's not about triage at that stage.[/quote]
That’s the point, tough decisions would need to be made when it comes to hospital admissions.

[quote XmasGoose]Interesting news from London that two thirds of ‘covid admissions’ are not actually in hospital because of covid at all.

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1472248618690170883?s=21[/quote]

Interesting because it is so wrong!

See the actual graph of London Covid admissions below.

80% with Covid as primary diagnosis....

So to be clear the argument here is that epidemiologists are wrong (not iSAGE specifically who I tend to disagree with - there are many less pessimistic epi people who are also making this point) and that instead of attempting to slow the omicron wave, it's all good because the argument about COVID saturating healthcare can be resolved by denying treatment to COVID patients?

Right.

@Starcup

Jesus Christ, difficult decisions are made everyday about hospital admissions. It's not that easy to get a hospital bed these days you know.

When Chris Whitty talks about the NHS being overwhelmed he means it's not able to cope, it's flooded - no more beds, no more staff, no more treatment.

It's a much bleaker picture that you seem to be able to comprehend.

[quote ChequerBoard]@Starcup

Jesus Christ, difficult decisions are made everyday about hospital admissions. It's not that easy to get a hospital bed these days you know.

When Chris Whitty talks about the NHS being overwhelmed he means it's not able to cope, it's flooded - no more beds, no more staff, no more treatment.

It's a much bleaker picture that you seem to be able to comprehend.[/quote]
Chill yourself out.

@ollyollyoxenfree

So to be clear the argument here is that epidemiologists are wrong (not iSAGE specifically who I tend to disagree with - there are many less pessimistic epi people who are also making this point) and that instead of attempting to slow the omicron wave, it's all good because the argument about COVID saturating healthcare can be resolved by denying treatment to COVID patients?

Right.

And you even 2 weeks will stop the overwhelming? Aye right….

recon