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Original poster

Good news re Omicron

337 replies

Tryingtryingandtrying · 09/12/2021 17:24

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1468985784338366468?t=0RA5_V7CWbGjhgxfNIDbAQ&s=19

All looking pretty positive.

OP posts:
user1745 · 10/12/2021 01:22

@Kokeshi123

The average age in South Africa is only a bit younger than Brazil or India (South Africa is not Niger--it's a middle income country). When Delta took hold in Brazil and India, we started seeing bad outcomes and car crashed hospitals pretty much straight away. It "feels" very different this time. I think that if Omicron was going to cause massive issues, we'd be seeing signs of it by now.
That's true, and I think it's also important to remember than when South African doctors and experts say this wave is so far milder, they are talking in comparison to previous waves in South Africa. The South African population hasn't got younger in the past couple of months. Yes, more people will be vaccinated and/or have natural immunity since the last wave, but us and many other countries also have high levels of natural or vaccine immunity in the population too.

So while our situation will not be exactly the same as South Africa's, if their latest wave is milder than their last, hopefully a new wave here should also be milder than our last.

People are also saying that people can take weeks to die from Covid. That's true, but that's because people can linger for a long time in ICU or on ventilators before succumbing. They don't suddenly get really ill 4 weeks after testing positive. Most people become seriously ill and have to go to hospital during their second week of infection. It's just about been long enough that if lots of people were becoming seriously ill with Covid, we'd probably be hearing about it about now, and so far, we aren't. So far, so good.

The high transmissibility is a concern of course. Even a less dangerous, but more transmissible virus could still overwhelm health systems. So far, South Africa's hospitals don't seem to be overwhelmed, which is reassuring. But it's probably a bit early yet to fully relax and "let it rip".

megustalacerveza · 10/12/2021 01:30

@user1745 the numbers are still very low though, aren't they? We weren't hearing about Delta deaths in the UK either with numbers as low as they are with Omicron.

ChilliGoat · 10/12/2021 01:56

[quote bumbleymummy]@ChilliGoat more virulent means more severe, not more transmissible.

I’m perfectly able to do the math, thanks. I’m pointing out that if it’s very very mild and only results in a fraction of a percent of serious cases then having a high number of cases would not be an issue.[/quote]
With the greatest of respect, you clearly haven’t grasped the maths of more infected equals more severe. A small percentage of a bigger number is still a bigger number!

ChilliGoat · 10/12/2021 01:57

(More severe cases)

ChilliGoat · 10/12/2021 01:57

No one has said it is very very mild.

At all

Look at the SA hospitalisations

Nosquit · 10/12/2021 02:05

I’m hoping this is true. My best friend (who I haven’t seen in a while) has just been told they have got the omnicron variant and I’m so so worried as they have some other health conditions (though vaxed.)
They are saying they still feel like they have bad flu though so I’m just so so thankful they were vaxed and hoping it doesn’t get worse for them.

UnmentionedElephantDildo · 10/12/2021 07:37

@ChilliGoat

No one has said it is very very mild.

At all

Look at the SA hospitalisations

We just don't know enough yet.

People are I think clinging to the idea of possibility of milder disease because it sounds less threatening.

And of course in terms of the individual it is likely to be less horrible.

But the volume of cases, even with a lower admission rate, could be very bad news for NHS and every person caught in the backlog.

And the economic consequences following disruption if lots of staff are off for 10 days are also undesirable.

Learning to live with covid doesn't mean 'ignore it and crack on', it means mitigating risks to try to prevent further harm to NHS and stop widespread sick leave causing disruption. It will always be about spreading peaks

UnmentionedElephantDildo · 10/12/2021 07:45

They are saying they still feel like they have bad flu though so I’m just so so thankful they were vaxed and hoping it doesn’t get worse for them

'Mild' in government-speak = did not require hospital treatment. Even if you are feeling more ill, worse than you have done in years, it's still officially mild

(A few years ago I had flu that knocked me off my feet for 3 weeks, and I barely remember the first week. But I didn't need admitting, so that was a 'mild' case)

bumbleymummy · 10/12/2021 08:15

@ChilliGoat with all due respect, you don’t seem to have grasped that if this turns out to be like a cold for the vast majority then the very small fraction of the large number that become ill will not anywhere near overwhelm hospitals. Which hospital figures from SA are you worried about? Last time I looked their hospital figures were a fraction of what they were seeing at the same point of the delta wave, and far fewer people are requiring oxygen/critical care.

ChilliGoat · 10/12/2021 08:20

[quote bumbleymummy]@ChilliGoat with all due respect, you don’t seem to have grasped that if this turns out to be like a cold for the vast majority then the very small fraction of the large number that become ill will not anywhere near overwhelm hospitals. Which hospital figures from SA are you worried about? Last time I looked their hospital figures were a fraction of what they were seeing at the same point of the delta wave, and far fewer people are requiring oxygen/critical care.[/quote]
I give up on you. You don’t get the point being made at all that actual exists concurrently with this point.

bumbleymummy · 10/12/2021 08:27

You shouldn’t assume that someone doesn’t ‘get’ your argument simply because they disagree with you.

ChilliGoat · 10/12/2021 08:28

And the hospitalisation figures actually shit up incredibly quickly. Fingers crossed they come down quickly too. The point is if it spreads quickly can cancel out the “mild” thing if it is true but it’s still too early to know for sure. I had it mild apparently as I never went to hospital but that meant struggled to breathe for 3 weeks, struggled to walk more than 10 metres for 6 weeks, still struggling to do much at all 12 weeks later. Mild. Nothing to worry about.

AchillesLastStand · 10/12/2021 08:28

@ChilliGoat you’re right. Mathematically more transmissible but less deadly isn’t always a good outcome,

theconversation.com/coronavirus-variants-why-being-more-transmissible-rather-than-more-deadly-isnt-good-news-152863

ChilliGoat · 10/12/2021 08:36

@bumbleymummy

You shouldn’t assume that someone doesn’t ‘get’ your argument simply because they disagree with you.
I don’t. I simultaneously agree with a bit of it but point out the picture is unclear. You say it isn’t and am have argued with two people about it and said the opposite back completely misunderstanding the point. That’s not disagreement.
LaurieFairyCake · 10/12/2021 08:40

Also really hoping it's going to be a milder version and drown out the Delta variant

Fairylights25 · 10/12/2021 08:44

I don't think the emotive language like the South African Mayor describing Omicron as 'a bomb going off' is helpful.

It looks to be milder, but much more infectious, not unlike the normal common cold which can be horrible for a week or so if you catch one.

I wonder if we are beginning to see the weakening of the virus - the burning out they described, where it just fades into the background. I know this is wildly optimistic but it could be the case....we need to wait one more week and we will know, not for sure but there will be better indicators. It is ripping through the UK now at a speed of knots, so it won't be long before we can see more clearly the impact of our vaccines, prior infection.

megustalacerveza · 10/12/2021 08:45

I see it as 'milder but much more transmissible' being a stepping stone on the way to it becoming endemic. The bad part of that is that it's going to get much worse before it gets better.

Fairylights25 · 10/12/2021 08:46

Infection and death rates in UK look entirely steady and stable for now.

megustalacerveza · 10/12/2021 08:50

@Fairylights25

Infection and death rates in UK look entirely steady and stable for now.
Omicron hasn't spread widely enough to make much of a difference yet either way.
Fairylights25 · 10/12/2021 08:52

It is in every region of the UK and is eclipsing the Delta variant, I think we would start to see the hospitalisation rates going up now and so far it is not evident.

Fairylights25 · 10/12/2021 08:53

Our covid ward is FULL of the unvaccinated. People need to vaccinate and fast if they want to stay out of lockdowns.

megustalacerveza · 10/12/2021 08:53

@Fairylights25

It is in every region of the UK and is eclipsing the Delta variant, I think we would start to see the hospitalisation rates going up now and so far it is not evident.
It isn't eclipsing the Delta variant at all. It's still a minority of cases. Please stop posting incorrect information.
SGChome20 · 10/12/2021 08:53

This genuinely makes my heart happy assuming it all comes true