What are the chances of lockdown this Christmas?

[43leftfeet]

I've been away this weekend (UK, but I've been distracted and not following the news).

I see there's been talk of Johnson announcing a "ban on Christmas" possibly, around the 17th - or not, depending on what happens with Omicron - is that about right?

I know we can't know yet what's going to happen, but what are people's feelings?

What do you think the restrictions, if any, are likely to be in England & Wales & in Scotland?

@newnameanon19 what do you propose then? Lockdown ever few months, subsidise wages for the country 5 or so months of the year every year? Please tell me where this magic money pot is as I am sure we would all love to know.

As for the people who won't get hospital treatment if their appendix burst if we have no lockdown to protect the NHS, it works both ways. How many cancers have been missed through GPs not seeing anyone during lockdown?

@SirensofTitan I don't remember saying I work with vaccines and if that's what you took from my post I suggest some activities to develop your reading skills are needed as a matter of urgency. I was merely pointing to the numerous reports that vaccines are unlikely to be effective or at least, as effective against against Omicron, or any other future variant for that matter. Vaccines have worked to an extent, absolutely, but do they work to the point we no longer need restrictions and lockdowns obviously not, so their purpose does not work enough, does it?

I can only assume people who still are in favour of lockdowns of any kind are those blinkered wealthy people who are absolutely aghast that money doesn't fall out of the sky. We are already facing higher NI and taxes because of the last lockdown, please tell me, if we don't just like covid get on with things, how do we feed those who will lose their jobs and home? It's not as simple as 'protect the NHS at all costs'. I feel the country would be in a much better position if everyone possessed the critical thinking skills to realise that.

@QueenofKattegat

The latest polling is that most people want tighter restrictions currently

Who are these people? The ones that enjoyed sitting at home "staying safe" and making banana bread and haven't had to go out to work every day since this whole shitstorm began?

I'm signed up to the YouGov surveys but I only bother responding to ones I feel strongly about. If others do the same then the results will always be skewed. So I guess maybe it is people with a lot of time on their hands/enjoying being at home who are answering those particular surveys..

It’s also possible to both worry about CEV relatives (I am) and worried about the impact of lockdown itself (also me). I see the impact of covid itself and of lockdowns and restrictions on many different situations in both my personal and professional life. I don’t have the answers but I don’t take any notice of anyone who thinks that there are “easy, harmless” restrictions/mitigations etc that should be implemented immediately. They just mean they don’t have much of an impact on them personally and they don’t have the imagination to think about why they are hard for other people. More time for people saying “I know this makes things difficult for many people but I think it’s worth it on balance”.

Well that's usually the same cohort that's more likely to be responding to pollsters during the day, so yeah, quite likely. Then obviously there is the telling researchers what you think you ought to say phenomenon.

Yes definitely.

Saying you want restrictions so that everyone can be 'safe' is very much the 'right' thing to say, but whether people actually practice what they preach is a different issue.

Plus, by 'restrictions' people often mean stuff which doesn't affect them personally, as we've seen on MN so many times. But those who want restrictions are of course free to restrict themselves.

Lots of people like me will complete every survey sent as part of the politics stuff.
MN is not a good sign of what most people think. If it was Brexit would have lost by a big majority and supporting transgender politics would be an extreme minority position.
Its like I see on twitter people posting about muzzles and conspiracy theories. But that is not what the majority think.
Dont use social media as a guide to how most people think. For a start most people just use social media to post photos of their kids or their social life, not to discuss politics.

YouGov polls equally are not a good guide

If they were you’d see 80% wearing masks as polled when optional,

You’d also be less likely to see swings away from Cons support when lockdowns occur

Personally I’m more likely to write to MP than do a poll.

I did join YouGov to see what it was about but I’m not motivated enough to do any. If I wanted restrictions I might be.

MPs will be getting a lot of pressure re releasing though from people affected, and more when they get stronger.

@IcedPurple

Well that's usually the same cohort that's more likely to be responding to pollsters during the day, so yeah, quite likely. Then obviously there is the telling researchers what you think you ought to say phenomenon.

Yes definitely.

Saying you want restrictions so that everyone can be 'safe' is very much the 'right' thing to say, but whether people actually practice what they preach is a different issue.

Plus, by 'restrictions' people often mean stuff which doesn't affect them personally, as we've seen on MN so many times. But those who want restrictions are of course free to restrict themselves.

Oh absolutely, I remember a thread not long ago when a poster was going to a fairly big wedding, so all the talking, hugging, drinking etc, and she thought there shouldn't be any hymn singing in the church as she couldn't see the point in it. Basically, too many people interpret questions on restrictions and lockdowns as how many things that don't affect me that much anyway do I think other people should have to give up.

Julieca of course MN isn't a good guide to what most people think (especially the covid board which I suspect most of MN hates!) Because it isn't at all representative of the general population. The Brexit thing often gets brought up, but actually MN was pretty representative of the way the demographic using these boards votes. Personally, as someone who isn't that arsed about masks, I don't see anywhere near as many genuine antis here as I do elsewhere. And that too fits with the demographic.

@MarshaBradyo some people will lie. But yougov will include people like my mum who rarely goes anywhere except the neighbours and families houses. She would wear a mask in a shop, but you will rarely see her going into one.
Research shows that young people have a far greater number of contacts and visits to venues than most older people. For a start, if my mum is meeting someone she will meet in their house for a tea, rather than meet at a coffee shop like my teenagers.
Also, mask compliance seems to vary widely depending on where you live and what shops you go into. A friend who lives in a very posh little town swears that virtually everyone has been wearing masks in shops throughout all of this. Whereas where I live compliance has always been poor.
Its why anecdote is rarely accurate.

They won’t touch Christmas this year and seeing as everything is fully open etc with nightclubs, hospitality etc, they’re not going to go from that to banning people from mixing in private houses. There are many steps first. Also schools should stay open and since that is where most of the spread is then stopping people mixing at home is pointless

So we're coming up to the end of 10 days iso. All kids have now had it, we're both boosted. We will be doing EVERYTHING and seeing EVERYONE to make up for the shit show of a term we have just been through. Vanishingly small risk to anyone else or ourselves.

Given the level of infections and the mind numbing boredom of home schooling and isolating I would imagine we are in reasonably large company.

Boris can lockdown all he wants. Party round mine everyone?!

[quote julieca]@MarshaBradyo some people will lie. But yougov will include people like my mum who rarely goes anywhere except the neighbours and families houses. She would wear a mask in a shop, but you will rarely see her going into one.
Research shows that young people have a far greater number of contacts and visits to venues than most older people. For a start, if my mum is meeting someone she will meet in their house for a tea, rather than meet at a coffee shop like my teenagers.
Also, mask compliance seems to vary widely depending on where you live and what shops you go into. A friend who lives in a very posh little town swears that virtually everyone has been wearing masks in shops throughout all of this. Whereas where I live compliance has always been poor.
Its why anecdote is rarely accurate.[/quote]
This doesn’t make me think YouGov is any more reliable than before

Esp the people lying part. Well that’s true for any of their surveys.

Rock and a hard place, damned if we do damned if we don't. My money's on a mid-January "circuit breaker" but hospitals are creaking already. So more likely to be WFH, mask mandates, mass gathering bans, vax to the max and household mixing mandates and hope the Omicron storm will have burnt out by mid-February.

No chance

Everyone would ignore it anyway

@Underparmummy Shall I bring canapes or just a fuck ton of wine :)

Does the phrase 'circuit breaker' give anybody else the rage?

Just ALL the wine! And some gin…

Yes, because they fuck everything up and do not work

Ok first of all theres no furlough so there can't be a lockdown. Secondly those who didn't pay attention to the rules the first time aren't going to this time. This time now we have lft that will be my basis. Negative lft we can socialise and I won't be restricting where I go and what I do. I did everything right first time.

Boris should call a referendum. Turns out those parties last year weren't parties and as No 10 said that's a "statement of fact".

www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2021-12-04/queue-of-22-ambulances-backed-up-outside-torbay-hospital-a-and-e

@MarshaBradyo not totally accurate no, but more accurate than MN.
The lying part - I suspect it snot so much outright lying. More that if someone mostly wears a mask, but if they forgot their mask will still go into a shop, will answer in a survey - yes I wear a mask. Because that is their intention.

[quote julieca]@MarshaBradyo not totally accurate no, but more accurate than MN.
The lying part - I suspect it snot so much outright lying. More that if someone mostly wears a mask, but if they forgot their mask will still go into a shop, will answer in a survey - yes I wear a mask. Because that is their intention.[/quote]
I wouldn’t go to YouGov for a good picture as so many other elements

You’d need to look at pressure on to MPs to see what messaging they are getting directly from constituents and businesses

I find Mn quite different to rl as it seems more pro restrictions than general feeling from other parents - so no need from me to take it as much either

Pretty high for just after Xmas I'd say.
If it's as infectious as they're saying the hospital's will be in absolute chaos. Plus It will be too late by Xmas anyway.

The compliance with restrictions has always been higher than the government predicted, or MN commenters predicted. But pretty ,such in line with YouGov polls.