What are the chances of lockdown this Christmas?

[43leftfeet]

I've been away this weekend (UK, but I've been distracted and not following the news).

I see there's been talk of Johnson announcing a "ban on Christmas" possibly, around the 17th - or not, depending on what happens with Omicron - is that about right?

I know we can't know yet what's going to happen, but what are people's feelings?

What do you think the restrictions, if any, are likely to be in England & Wales & in Scotland?

@churchofthepoisonmind

Does the phrase 'circuit breaker' give anybody else the rage?

Ha yes

As if saying short, sharp lockdown will make the virus scuttle faster

Such an oversell

Lockdowns take ages and that’s with first variants

We are good at complying despite cries of ‘selfish’ bandied about, esp about the U.K. apparently.

It doesn’t mean there won’t be resistance to further measures.

his horrific abuse & death highlights exactly why schools should never close again. He would probably still be alive. They’d have not got away with starving him or beating him, school would have noticed.

How naive. This happens to kids whether schools are open or not.

@vera99

Rock and a hard place, damned if we do damned if we don't. My money's on a mid-January "circuit breaker" but hospitals are creaking already. So more likely to be WFH, mask mandates, mass gathering bans, vax to the max and household mixing mandates and hope the Omicron storm will have burnt out by mid-February.

Many people are absolutely done with being told which households they are allowed to "mix" with.

[quote julieca]@MarshaBradyo not totally accurate no, but more accurate than MN.
The lying part - I suspect it snot so much outright lying. More that if someone mostly wears a mask, but if they forgot their mask will still go into a shop, will answer in a survey - yes I wear a mask. Because that is their intention.[/quote]
Out of interest, what do you mean by more accurate than MN? Better at giving a representative sample of the population? Because that's probably true, but because MN isn't and doesn't claim to be, that still leaves a lot of room for YouGov figures to be quite significantly flawed.

@BoredZelda

his horrific abuse & death highlights exactly why schools should never close again. He would probably still be alive. They’d have not got away with starving him or beating him, school would have noticed.

How naive. This happens to kids whether schools are open or not.

It's not naive to acknowledge that society and education being shut down is akin to an abuser's charter.

How naive to think otherwise

They'll bring back 'work at home if you can' at a push.

@julieca

The compliance with restrictions has always been higher than the government predicted, or MN commenters predicted. But pretty ,such in line with YouGov polls.

You mean documented compliance. Given how easy it is to socialise in private homes without detection even when illegal, this is guesswork.

@churchofthepoisonmind

Does the phrase 'circuit breaker' give anybody else the rage?

See also "on its/their knees" and "ripping through".

There's no furlough so there can't be a lockdown.

We stuck to the rules the whole way though but now we have lft they can attempt to restrict numbers all they want but as far as my circle is concerned if we're sensible and all take lft then we'll have as many as they want to.

WFH - nope not doing that either - too cold and my house is my home, not my workplace. Also happy to lft every day.

Face coverings have not been removed in Scotland so all good with that.

Can posters please stop saying "everybody would ignore it anyway".
No, they wouldn't. Obviously people could still choose to socialise in houses if there was a lockdown but I think actually if things were that serious most would comply.

Well I can only speak for myself, my friends, my family and all the colleagues and clients I talk to daily when I say that yes, they're all quite happy to say they will ignore any further attempts by the government to restrict who we can and cannot see in our own homes.

Quite obviously people have no choice if things are closed but there was a thriving "black market" last time and there would be again.

Clearly everybody wouldn't ignore it, but it is evident in these discussions that some people haven't really encountered significant noncompliance and as such aren't really alert to the possibility.

I'm less pissed off about this alleged party at Downing Street than I am about Boris and Carrie having her best friend to stay for Christmas and trying to pass her off as childcare.
It is THAT sort of shit that makes me less inclined to comply with any restrictions on friends and family this year.

Accuracy of polling varies hugely depending on how it's done. People choosing to sign up for polls online and then choosing to answer a poll they are invited to complete are obviously self-selecting, and the sample will not be representative of the population as a whole.

Similarly, phoning people up and asking them questions might be more representative but you are still relying on people to tell the truth not only about the issue you are questioning on, but also the demographic age/sex/income factors. I have only ever been phoned up once for a genuine political poll and that was in the run-up to the Scottish Independence referendum in 2014.

Stopping people in the street is also going to give you a biased sample as it's excluding people who are at work, or housebound.

There is no perfect way of doing polls. But the self-selecting "we'll pay you 20p to answer this" is the least perfect of them all.

And that's before you even get into the whole issue of how questions are designed. The Electoral Commission for example would not allow the SNP to use "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country" as it's proven that if undecided, people are more likely to agree than disagree. So ruled the question should be "Should Scotland be an independent country". Same applies for Covid related questions - people are obviously going to be less likely to say no to a question worded "Do you agree that more restrictions/lockdown are needed to protect the NHS and save lives?"

@Kshhuxnxk

There's no furlough so there can't be a lockdown.

We stuck to the rules the whole way though but now we have lft they can attempt to restrict numbers all they want but as far as my circle is concerned if we're sensible and all take lft then we'll have as many as they want to.

WFH - nope not doing that either - too cold and my house is my home, not my workplace. Also happy to lft every day.

Face coverings have not been removed in Scotland so all good with that.

No lockdown...but maybe curfews for hospitality

"circuit breaker", "on its knees" , "ripping through", "bubbles bursting" all intensely irritating drama fuelled phrases. Often used to justify harmful and unnecessary school closures.

I don't know anyone who fully complied to the letter to all the restrictions last time. Everyone was careful and didn't take the piss though.

No, @Turkishangora we didn't comply to the letter either. I hugged my mum when I saw her at Christmas even though Nicola Sturgeon said we should keep our distance and meet outside. (In Scotland, in December. )

After my teenage daughter had an epic toddler-style tantrum/meltdown in around February, we started encouraging her to invite friends into the house every now and again for pizza and Netflix. I never stuck to the Scottish government's ridiculous idea that we should not leave our local Authority area unless essential as I wouldn't have been able to go anywhere, or do anything. My cleaner didn't come at all in the March-July 2020 lockdown in Scotland but in January 2021 she said she was happy to continue, so I let her. Met friends indoors for illegal coffees.

I've had two vaccines and am having my booster on Wednesday. I'm not stopping seeing people in their houses or in mine again.

@MLMshouldbeillegal

Accuracy of polling varies hugely depending on how it's done. People choosing to sign up for polls online and then choosing to answer a poll they are invited to complete are obviously self-selecting, and the sample will not be representative of the population as a whole.

Similarly, phoning people up and asking them questions might be more representative but you are still relying on people to tell the truth not only about the issue you are questioning on, but also the demographic age/sex/income factors. I have only ever been phoned up once for a genuine political poll and that was in the run-up to the Scottish Independence referendum in 2014.

Stopping people in the street is also going to give you a biased sample as it's excluding people who are at work, or housebound.

There is no perfect way of doing polls. But the self-selecting "we'll pay you 20p to answer this" is the least perfect of them all.

And that's before you even get into the whole issue of how questions are designed. The Electoral Commission for example would not allow the SNP to use "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country" as it's proven that if undecided, people are more likely to agree than disagree. So ruled the question should be "Should Scotland be an independent country". Same applies for Covid related questions - people are obviously going to be less likely to say no to a question worded "Do you agree that more restrictions/lockdown are needed to protect the NHS and save lives?"

This is a good post re polls.

And I’ve seen some cracking questions from YouGov which make me wonder if any guidance applies or it’s just SM bait

@MLMshouldbeillegal

Accuracy of polling varies hugely depending on how it's done. People choosing to sign up for polls online and then choosing to answer a poll they are invited to complete are obviously self-selecting, and the sample will not be representative of the population as a whole.

Similarly, phoning people up and asking them questions might be more representative but you are still relying on people to tell the truth not only about the issue you are questioning on, but also the demographic age/sex/income factors. I have only ever been phoned up once for a genuine political poll and that was in the run-up to the Scottish Independence referendum in 2014.

Stopping people in the street is also going to give you a biased sample as it's excluding people who are at work, or housebound.

There is no perfect way of doing polls. But the self-selecting "we'll pay you 20p to answer this" is the least perfect of them all.

And that's before you even get into the whole issue of how questions are designed. The Electoral Commission for example would not allow the SNP to use "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country" as it's proven that if undecided, people are more likely to agree than disagree. So ruled the question should be "Should Scotland be an independent country". Same applies for Covid related questions - people are obviously going to be less likely to say no to a question worded "Do you agree that more restrictions/lockdown are needed to protect the NHS and save lives?"

There's also the point that some groups are just much more difficult to survey than others. Take for example undocumented people, or those living very transient lifestyles. For obvious reasons they're harder to canvass. That matters less in traditional political polling, because the former can't vote and the latter tend not to. So you can completely ignore them and it won't have too much influence on your Brexit polling accuracy. Whereas their views matter more for issues like lockdowns and restrictions, because the test for relevance there is presence in society rather than being on the electoral roll.

I have heard from a good source that the government are making plans for a lockdown in the New Year, Which you could say is right as they should prepare for all eventualities, wether it’s implemented depends on certain data in the next few weeks

@Unphased so many people on MN heard from sources that there was an august lockdown and September lockdown....

@weddingguesttbc that isnt true.

@BoredZelda - I’m not remotely naive. I spend every Saturday morning volunteering at a centre for children living with domestic violence. Of course this went on pre-covid. But there isn’t a single person in the sector who doesn’t think lockdown made it 1000x worse. I’ve witnessed it so many awful times. No-one could leave the house, abusers took full advantage of no-one noticing. Lockdowns also heightened anger & violence in people and who did they take that out on? Lockdowns are a disaster for vulnerable & abused children.

So, you can drop that shitty, know it all comments on that one.

@Unphased

I have heard from a good source that the government are making plans for a lockdown in the New Year, Which you could say is right as they should prepare for all eventualities, wether it’s implemented depends on certain data in the next few weeks

Oh one of these "I have heard from a good source" sources.

I.e. utterly unreliable hearsay.

Doubtless several possible plans are being suggested....just in case. However a lockdown means shutting schools - which they can never do again especially after what became clear in the news this week - and furlough. Where the fuck are the government going to find furlough money, business support etc?