What are the chances of lockdown this Christmas?

[43leftfeet]

I've been away this weekend (UK, but I've been distracted and not following the news).

I see there's been talk of Johnson announcing a "ban on Christmas" possibly, around the 17th - or not, depending on what happens with Omicron - is that about right?

I know we can't know yet what's going to happen, but what are people's feelings?

What do you think the restrictions, if any, are likely to be in England & Wales & in Scotland?

No. No lockdowns. Probably a wfh order. Even if they impose restrictions, I won’t be complying.

I see there's been talk of Johnson announcing a "ban on Christmas" possibly, around the 17th - or not, depending on what happens with Omicron - is that about right?

It's right that there is talk about a December lockdown. Just as there has been talk about a August lockdown, a September lockdown, October lockdown, November lockdown.

People talk shit about all sorts of things, all of the time, as do the newspapers. I will be very, very surprised if it happens.

Lockdown was only ever to stop NHS being overloaded. As long as people get their boosters, the risk of hospitalisation is not high, so it'll probably be ok on that front. The unvaccinated will be at risk and should choose to be cautious. We all know the drill now.

@GiveMeNovocain I completely agree. But continually throwing education staff under the bus by not prioritising them for vaccinations, issuing guidance at 5 minutes to midnight for implementation the next day, ludicrously under funding recovery programmes and completely ignoring the super high rates of infection doesn’t reduce levels of ‘suffering’ amongst pupils and staff.

I believe the government will do their very best to avoid a lockdown again. Having said that three weeks is a long time in terms of covid and around xmas we'll probably know more about Omicron. If there's need for concern, then I think it'll be Plan B, they might get pushed to introduce vaccine passports and (can't remember the source) was mentioned of meeting in small groups.

I would wager zero.

How funny that people think Boris saying No Lockdown over Christmas now categorically means there won't be one. Don't they remember him doing exactly the same last year then locking down?

I'm praying there won't be as we have 12 here for Christmas and I'm not cancelling that unless our relatives can't get into Scotland from England.
I'm more worried about the NY. DS is doing prelims last two weeks in Jan and they've had such disrupted schooling over the past two years, he's doing well but I can see that being easily scuppered by school closures.

Very low.

They are only going to increase restrictions et if this variant starts to overwhelm the NHS ,what ever you think about the government ,they really don't want to do anything that affects the economy ,why would they ?

Cannot imagine the government locking down again unless omicron turns out to be really bad (ie resistant to current vaccines as well as mega-transmissible) and in that case they'll probably do it too late anyway.

Not sure about the "people won't comply" aspect though. Already in the past week I'm sensing people, of their own volition, act with more caution. People who want to see their families at Xmas are restricting their activities in the run-up. Some bigger parties have been cancelled. Work Xmas parties are falling like dominoes.

Two weeks ago mask-wearing in shops and on public transport in London was low and half-arsed (even though it was still a rule on TFL and in supermarkets). I'd say about a quarter were masked. In the past week, it's back up to nearly 100%.

As with every stage of this - people aren't scared and are getting on with their lives, but the population is quicker to be cautious than the government.

I really can't see there being another lockdown now that furlough has ended, even telling people to work from home will be problematic as the hospitality industry is still getting back on its feet. I think it's too late to do anything now Omicron is here, but from recent reports it seems to be a much milder version of the virus.

They will only lockdown if deaths are out of control. They don’t know enough about new variant yet to impose new restrictions. There is no where near as much good will from the public for locking down again. Also it’s not because they are concerned of you getting it, it’s because the nhs can’t cope if there’s too much demand.

@RosieLemonade

They are slowly turning up the fear so companies feel they have to cancel events but without the government actually saying so therefore nobody can claim anything.

Bingo.

Actual lockdown doesn't do anything (I don't use the term work because that's highly debatable) without money. No more of that will be forthcoming, thus we won't be having a lockdown. It'll be the back door approach.

I don’t think there’s time for omicron to cause significant problems before Christmas, even if cases double every two days.

OP what do you mean 'there has been talk'?

OP what do you mean 'there has been talk'?

Yes. I’m guessing what this actually means is “there have been threads on MN” or “someone on Twitter”

I wonder if it might be people speculating over the 3 week review due about then?

I don't think Boris Johnson would contemplate it pre-christmas. Even if that meant a lot of unnecessary deaths.

That is not to say there will be lots of deaths of course. He is just a massive populist and he'll do what he thinks with keep people happy regardless of the potential consequences.

He does what will keep the right wing of his party/CRG happy so that he stays in power, regardless of consequences.

The latest polling is that most people want tighter restrictions currently

Christmas will not be cancelled.
They will never, ever close schools again following the atrocious Arthur Labinjo-Hughs case.
Most I can imagine is masks and some wfh if you can in new year. But probably we'll crawl though the Omicron wave and spring will hopefully see reduced testing in hospitals only. Here's hoping...

Completely agree with you @Scottishgirl85.

I agree too Scottish

We’ll see some behaviour change eg companies cancelling parties or going to wfh for week before Christmas

But we’ve seen the fall out, we can’t go back to that.

Does it not get to a point where we just have to push on regardless? It's been nearly two years, two years of anxiety, loss, stress and yes I'll health and even death for some people, but locking down every few months is not sustainable at all. Covid is here for good, there is absolutely no doubt about it, it's not going anywhere. Vaccines don't seem to be working so unfortunately, we just have to learn to live with it. I imagine I'll get flamed for this, but what's the alternative? Locking down every couple of months for the rest of the planets life? Who is going to pay for that? How can we subsidise wages indefinitely? What about the industries that are already on their knees even two years in?

Lockdown aren't working, restrictions aren't working, vaccines apparently aren't working against new strains, so we just have to get on with life. Maybe have masks a permanent feature but other than that, what will be will be.

Yes @Scottishgirl85 - his horrific abuse & death highlights exactly why schools should never close again. He would probably still be alive. They’d have not got away with starving him or beating him, school would have noticed. He wouldn’t have had to stand for 14 hours a day because he’d have been at school. How many other children suffered abuse like this as well but not quite to the point of death.

People bleat on about school is education, not childcare. Well, to some kids it isn’t just education. It’s safety, warmth, food & a childhood.

I don’t think there will be a lockdown. Maybe increased restrictions in the new year but still not a lockdown. And frankly, unless this variant is super deadly, I can’t see anyone listening & not seeing vaccinated & boosted family..