Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@julieca pretty sure the hospital would test them? Or are you suggesting there's hundreds of toddlers in hospital with Covid that aren't being reported...

@weddingpanicomicron

To me, the total number in hospital looks like it's decreased recently? A long way to go until we're back at Oct / Early Nov levels again

Me too. Are people reacting to young child cases below?

I personally think it's too late for plan B. Happy to be shot down, but I don't think they have a plan C...or D...
It seems to be "have a booster" and "that's all folks"
🙄

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets I think given they've had the chance to go plan B and refused, they'd have a very hard time to skip it complete and sell harsher restrictions without even trying it

I agree with Wedding

But what are people looking at that is causing panic?

[quote weddingpanicomicron]@julieca pretty sure the hospital would test them? Or are you suggesting there's hundreds of toddlers in hospital with Covid that aren't being reported...[/quote]
No I am suggesting that they get admitted with something like a high temperature, then get covid confirmed once in hospital.

@julieca they'd be included in the figures

@weddingpanicomicron it doesn't matter. it's too late now. the stable door is wide open. They should have gone to plan B at the first sniff of Omicron, but business won't let them.
The thing is, people will make up their own rules/boundaries. Business will feel the impact of that.

@weddingpanicomicron I know. I am talking about those saying most were not admitted to hospital with covid.

[quote PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets]@weddingpanicomicron it doesn't matter. it's too late now. the stable door is wide open. They should have gone to plan B at the first sniff of Omicron, but business won't let them.
The thing is, people will make up their own rules/boundaries. Business will feel the impact of that.[/quote]
What are you looking at that is worrying you?

Which data / numbers

They should have gone to plan B at the first sniff of Omicron

It's very unlikely that plan B would've done anything at all against Omicron, indeed it's more likely that the measures would be wrong - vaccine breakthrough being the prime concern, using covid passes for entry would not help in the slightest with that, as the vaccinated are still at risk.

(Plan B, being exactly what Scotland has, also suggests it would have no appreciable impact on Delta either)

I haven't looked closely enough at the child figures but we do know that a disproportionate number of hospitalisations are pregnant women. I did wonder whether some of the children are the babies of recently delivered women who are in hospital themselves because of complications in pregnancy ? Stands to reason they'd admit babies under those circumstances for extra care and attention?

This may, of course, be complete bollocks. I thought I did read that a large number of the SA admissions were obstetric.

This from earlier says we have a current "worst case scenario of ~2500 cases so far and an R-value of 3.47 (CI 2.75 - 4.40)":

twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1468151959957950466

Taken from a thread wondering about Plan B - an Emergency Planner’s view

twitter.com/vincebee7/status/1468189717313249281?s=21

@JanglyBeads where do posters find all these Twitter people?

Genuinely interested

From the BBC

	Early indications suggest the Omicron variant of coronavirus is "more transmissible" than Delta, Downing Street says
	But much remains unknown and the government is not looking at introducing its Plan B level of restrictions, a spokesman tells reporters

Sick to death of this now. We can’t throw a wobbler every time this virus mutates. And we need to stop saying the NHS is under threat because of covid. The NHS is under threat because of years and years of systematic Tory underfunding, covid was the final nail in the coffin. Once this is over the NHS will be privatised and they will use the pandemic to justify it.

45691 and 180 deaths today.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-find-stealth-version-of-omicron-not-identifiable-with-pcr-test-covid-variant

You can opt to follow relevant hashtags or, as I’ve done, follow a couple of the major scientists who retweet other people or who get replies from others. Obviously there will
Inevitably be bias in that.

But I’ve only been on there a couple of months and am very much on a learning curve!

@sirfredfredgeorge

They should have gone to plan B at the first sniff of Omicron

It's very unlikely that plan B would've done anything at all against Omicron, indeed it's more likely that the measures would be wrong - vaccine breakthrough being the prime concern, using covid passes for entry would not help in the slightest with that, as the vaccinated are still at risk.

I agree - vaccine passports would take a bit of time to set up and very little use if vaccinated people are getting infected (potentially even counter productive if they give the vaccinated a false sense of safety). A wfh rule might have slowed things down a little, but there's no way it could have stopped it. It might have bought you a week or two, but to do what? You boost a few more younger people but meanwhile the very oldest are now a couple of months from their boosters and better protected now than they will be by February. I think there's absolutely nothing that the government could have done, or could yet do to stop Omicron. What I really, really hope they're doing (possibly with less fanfare) is ramping up stocks of oxygen and increasing NHS capacity. If people die for lack of hospital beds or oxygen (as they did in India due to their government's complacency) that would be a crime - we are two whole years into this pandemic now. A immunity evading variant should not have been a surprise.

I think there's absolutely nothing that the government could have done, or could yet do to stop Omicron

Closing indoor mixing (ie lockdown with essential shops capacity limited) will still reduce cases I'm sure, there's no suggestion the reproduction rate is high enough anywhere to change that conclusion.

Of course, like previous lockdowns, that's just postponing - however 3 months for a new vaccine and the time spent building a more efficient distribution network might "Save May Bank Holiday Weekend".

On the concerns earlier over Ventilation Beds - in England they have been essentially static for 3 weeks, fluctuating between a low of 764 and a high of 806, today the number is 779, this is still just a reflection in the Over 60's case rate over the last couple of months, nothing's yet changed there that I can see.

[quote JanglyBeads]www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-find-stealth-version-of-omicron-not-identifiable-with-pcr-test-covid-variant[/quote]
Oh no. There was a certain (cold) comfort knowing existing tests would work.

@Lelivre they still tell people they have Covid