Will the new close contact rules have opposite effect to intended?

[Greentrees2021]

Apologies if this has already been discussed somewhere.

I was just thinking if I got mild Covid symptoms now (other than the main 3) I would take a LFT and, if positive, I would now think twice about doing a comfirmatory PCR where I wouldn't have before. I would of course isolate off the back of the positive LFT, but if I went for the PCR there's a chance it called be Omicron which could then force my children and a whole bunch of my double/triple vaccinated family and friends into 10 days unnecessary isolation before Christmas.

If other people thought this same way actually, actually this strict new rule of the Government's could backfire in making people less likely to do PCR test and making it harder to track and analyse Omicron.

Am I missing something? What do you think? Is this a risk?

Yep, absolutely!

Yep. In the last few weeks (before Omicron was a known thing) we all got COVID one after the other. DH got it last (lateral flowed every day whilst the other family members were isolating and did PCRs). When his LFT turned positive we didn't bother with a PCR because he was already isolating, we didn't need proof for work/travel and to be honest we could do without being hounded by Test and Trace for a 5th time. With the rule changes and in the same circumstances think we still wouldn't bother with the PCR

Yes, I already won't take a test because of how much T&T pester you when you are ill, fortunately I'm retired so can easily isolate and don't need to worry about work and school, There is no way I would have one now.

How would you feel if you got COVID over Christmas because a close contact hadn’t bothered isolating?

I thought the rule had changed for vaccinated close contacts but couldn't find anything. Glad I am not the only one who heard this. Can someone point me in the right direction where it lists the rules please?

Completely agree.
A colleague tested positive a few weeks ago snd I and informed T&T of everyone she has had contact with who then got hounded relentlessly.
If I got a positive LFT would discreetly isolate and tell people I thought so had contact with who could do their own LFTs and so on would NOT do a PCR.

Until they are sure what disease pattern omicron produces, then yes it's a risk.

And of course if it does transmit as readioynas they fear, and it produces disease that requires similar levels of hospitalisation as the earlier Ines, that does not mean that for everyone mild = asymptomatic or barely symptomatic. It can mean a week in bed feeling as rough as a badgers arse

If enough people get it in a short amount of time, schools and business will have partial closures because of levels of staff sickness.

Some people might become very ill indeed when rates rocket - these are real people - maybe those newly diagnosed with cancer (people seem to think excess cancer deaths are bad, even though the same person with cancer dying because hospitals become unsafe or because the treatment makes them more vulnerable seems to be OK - I don't think it's ok, but the 'government no to die soon anyway' line of thought seems pretty popular).

And of course there will be nomway to track the variant and spotnwhat it is dog no. That weakens the public health response enormously, and probably skews to to remaining strict.

Yes, because people can't afford to isolate. If you can afford to isolate but wouldn't, you're a twat.

I agree, OP - was just thinking about this last night.

I can’t see how this won’t have an impact in how people choose to test

Are they sequencing every pcr to see of it is omicron?

I think the lack of close contacts isolating is one of the reasons we have such high case numbers here anyway and shouldn't have been changed in the first place. Proper support should have been put in place for those who need to isolate instead given that we know a lot of spread happens before people are symptomatic, regardless of variant

@ChemistryBoggle

Are they sequencing every pcr to see of it is omicron?

There is apparently a difference that can be seen without full sequencing in most labs. Something to do with 'S cell dropout'.

@User5489205347

Yes, I already won't take a test because of how much T&T pester you when you are ill, fortunately I'm retired so can easily isolate and don't need to worry about work and school, There is no way I would have one now.

If you fill in the form that T&T send you within 3 hours of receiving the email they don’t even call you at all (providing you have an NHS number and are not a child). So that is a rubbish excuse for not following the rules. I have Covid at the moment so I know this is the current situation.

I know many people who have had a positive LFT and isolated off the back of that rather and not bother going for a PCR.

Their reasoning is that the PCR is just going to tell them something they already know and so figure there’s no point to it.

I imagine this happens a lot which in turn makes it harder to track the viruses or have an accurate picture of the true numbers of new cases.

@ChemistryBoggle

Are they sequencing every pcr to see of it is omicron?

I think they test a proportion of all tests to keep on track of how prevalent omicron is becoming, and to gather the data on disease patterns in affected clumps (or if widespread) postcode areas.

Without that info, then we have to stay on the precautionary measures for longer. And because we do need to establish what proportion of cases require hospitalisation before easing them again.

Vaccination took us from about 9% down to 2%. If this variant, because of its potential to escape vaccines, makes that figure rise, then that's worth knowing. If hospitals ger stuffed, were all stuffed

Just to confirm, my husband had Covid last week and that is exactly our experience. We just filled out the form when we received the email and never heard from them again.

I imagine this happens a lot which in turn makes it harder to track the viruses or have an accurate picture of the true numbers of new cases

Correct, gaps make data unreliable. It will skew findings towards only the rougher mild, the moderate and severe cases being found and recorded. So the variant could be thought more harmful, so it's more restrictions and for longer.

I would of course isolate off the back of the positive LFT, but if I went for the PCR there's a chance it called be Omicron which could then force my children and a whole bunch of my double/triple vaccinated family and friends into 10 days unnecessary isolation before Christmas.

Why are you thinking it’s unnecessary for them to isolate?

There is apparently a difference that can be seen without full sequencing in most labs. Something to do with 'S cell dropout'.

Nearly right - it's the 'S-gene dropout'. There are 2 amino acids missing in the S gene of the Omicron variant. That's how it can be identified via sequencing.

I agree and think the same thing. Especially as I believe it's every 'suspected' case of Omicron, not just confirm case. So who is it that decides it's a 'suspected' case, and on what basis?

I think the advantage of going for a PCR is that you can prove you've had Covid. For example, if you want to travel to France at the moment I believe you have to be double vaccinated or under 12 or had Covid within the last 6 months or take daily PCR tests while you're there. So it would be a bit irritating if you fall into the third category but have no proof.

@TriciaMcMillan

Just to confirm, my husband had Covid last week and that is exactly our experience. We just filled out the form when we received the email and never heard from them again.

Sorry, app being weird, that was in response to *SheComesUndone

@CrunchyCarrot

There is apparently a difference that can be seen without full sequencing in most labs. Something to do with 'S cell dropout'.

Nearly right - it's the 'S-gene dropout'. There are 2 amino acids missing in the S gene of the Omicron variant. That's how it can be identified via sequencing.

Thanks, nearly right is quite good for me at 7am! I thought I had read this means they can identify this particular strain more easily than some of the others, most of the labs have the capability to do it there rather than sending for full sequencing?

Then there was a long discussion about the different labs and why the SW doesn't have this capability which didn't sound ideal...

@Thunderpunt

I agree and think the same thing. Especially as I believe it's every 'suspected' case of Omicron, not just confirm case. So who is it that decides it's a 'suspected' case, and on what basis?

I think this is what I am talking about (probably inaccurately because I CBA to go and re-find the stuff I read/heard at the weekend) which is the labs can see this S gene dropout without doing full sequencing?

It sounds like @CrunchyCarrot might put me right if I have misunderstood what was meant by most labs being able to see if it is potentially Omicron. I got the impression there will be an initial look a) could be Omicron b) nah, not Omicron in the lab and then sent for full sequencing if a, rather than just a random assortment being sent for sequencing?

@GodIsAVegan

I would of course isolate off the back of the positive LFT, but if I went for the PCR there's a chance it called be Omicron which could then force my children and a whole bunch of my double/triple vaccinated family and friends into 10 days unnecessary isolation before Christmas.

Why are you thinking it’s unnecessary for them to isolate?

Only basing it on my experience to date. My kids have had multiple 10 day isolations due to cases in their bubbles (before the rules changed) and never caught Covid any of those times so with hindsight those isolations were unnecessary.