Omicron New Variant Thread 2 *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Continuation of the last thread

Not necessarily she tends to remain a step or two ahead!

@Thewiseoneincognito

I agree RTB, all eyes on Sturgeon. She’s usually a step or two ahead and is a good indication of where we’ll be heading.

Do we have any idea yet what ‘very challenging new information’ Gove was alluding to?

The numbers alone might be enough.

Got a million people getting mild flu in a week? How do you keep schools open? How do you keep hospitals going? How do you keep nuclear reactors going? How do you keep supermarkets open? How do you keep food factories open? How do you keep deliveries going? Etc etc?

You don't need it to be more severe than that, if your numbers are really that huge.

Lockdown effectively becomes spontaneous in a way.

Its a scenario that has come up as a posibility before covid ever came along.

Most people talking about omicron assume that the crisis we might face in the new year is one about people dying or hospitals. It need not be.

Agree that some people are slightly curtailing their behaviour already (and some people never will.) I think that we might end up with more 'not too restrictive restrictions' - masks in more places, table service in hospitality etc, but I don't think Johnson could bear to cancel another Christmas, especially as his popularity has taken a massive hit too. So we'll potentially plough on as the numbers go up and up and up, everybody is 'permitted to have Christmas' by which time we'll be fcked and January will be a lockdown, school closure, horror show.

Or it actually will be really mild, the hospitals will not be overwhelmed and by some miracle we'll be ok.

I couldn't say say which is going to come to pass. Agree Sturgeon is where early indications will come from.

It's all being done by stealth isn't it?
Many firms have cancelled their Christmas dos
Wfh is back , masks etc etc
They just need the schools to break up : a week to go ! Next week will be interesting.
Then maybe a bit of breathing space over Christmas if it's not killing people ? ..
Not for the NHs, but people are indoors more at Christmas.
Jan might be a different story : just have to hope that it is ' only a cold ' ..
And the boosters work too

I think it's worth parents remembering just how last minute the closure of schools was last January and how contrary it was to the government messaging and actions taken just days before (eg. threatening court action against a school that wanted to close early for Christmas).

Hopefully it won't happen but best to be prepared. As a teacher I'll definitely be digging out all of last years recorded lessons and remote learning resources I created, to see what's usable just in case, for after Christmas though I tend to think we won't lockdown. That's based on nothing really though, just a gut feeling that that they won't want to be seen to close schools and schools don't actually want it either regardless of what some seem to believe.

Schools would really like normal exams to go ahead this year and not go through tags again or have another year without national data and results to go on and that means avoiding lockdowns. My school is wearing masks in the classroom next week - not because we are dementors or the like but because we know that most people don't want to risk trashing Christmas by bringing covid into the home next week. When we're this close to the end a few days of mask wearing is worth it to have the best chance at a normal family Christmas to the vast majority of staff and parents and hopefully won't send the 'you're muzzling my child' fanatics into too much of a frenzy.

The not isolating as a contact of an Omicron case is disastrous spread wise but realistically how could essential services keep running otherwise if we're looking at the kind of numbers being predicted? Our best hope is that it's a very, very small percentage of cases that needs any medical intervention and that the triple vaccinated older and vulnerable people who would be more likely to be part of that percentage are as well protected as they're hoping.

I can't see plan B achieving much. It does feel more like a grooming and heating the frog's water preparation move rather than an end in itself.

I worry more about doctors and hospitals. I've not seen a doctor for nearly 2 years despite some abnormalities on a blood test and a few potentially serious yet could be nothing health issues and some long term issues that are supposed to be properly monitored. I find that stressful enough. I can only imagine how awful it would be if this had coincided with my dad's dx with cancer over 3 years ago when he was fortunately able to rapidly have a further pet scan, appointments with consultant and get underway with chemotherapy,

If I was the tory leader I'd be announcing the reinstatement of nhs bursaries immediately to be sure we had plenty of in country applicants for nursing and doctor training courses come autumn. I'd also be publicly investing more into icu provision and ways of ensuring non covid care could go ahead for the seriously ill. We seem to hear a lot about how the nhs will be overwhelmed and 'we' must protect but little about how our government will help it get through and recover from this.

[quote peridito]@Beachcomber The Moderna booster is half a dose. Pfizer is the same

What is Pfizer the same as ? The same as Moderna and a half dose ?.[/quote]
All Pfizer injections have 30 micrograms of RNA - whether they are primary doses or boosters.

Moderna contains 100 micrograms of RNA in primary shots and the booster is half that at 50 micrograms.

Moderna booster floored me. I thought AZ was bad enough but Moderna was a whole new level. I'd love to understand why these jabs have such varying effects on people, or indeed why covid itself is so varied in presentation.

@RedToothBrush

IMPORTANT NOTE AT THIS POINT: Contigency planning 'for just a cold' does exist .When we have had concerns about Swine Flu in the past there was contigency planning because of the worry so many workers would be off, critical services and infrastructure wouldn't be able to operate properly due to staff shortages. Even in a best case 'omicron is very mild' scenario, that could well be what we are running headlong into.

If (and it's a big if) Omicron is very mild, then the 10 day isolation becomes far more of a problem than the actual illness. It becomes better for all involved just to solider through and for people to take her sick days they need (like we did pre-Covid.

[quote Warhertisuff]@RedToothBrush

IMPORTANT NOTE AT THIS POINT: Contigency planning 'for just a cold' does exist .When we have had concerns about Swine Flu in the past there was contigency planning because of the worry so many workers would be off, critical services and infrastructure wouldn't be able to operate properly due to staff shortages. Even in a best case 'omicron is very mild' scenario, that could well be what we are running headlong into.

If (and it's a big if) Omicron is very mild, then the 10 day isolation becomes far more of a problem than the actual illness. It becomes better for all involved just to solider through and for people to take her sick days they need (like we did pre-Covid.[/quote]
Potentially. Yes.

But the flip to that is if its not so mild...

Why are all tomorrow's headlines about how 3 doses of pfizer are 75% effective. But not about how two doses of AZ are zero effective?

Lots of over 40s cant get bookings for a booster even though they are eligible. Dh had AZ even though hes 39. Hes not even eligible.

SA used pfizer not AZ.

That number is a BIG worry and should set off alarm bells because of how the UK vaccinated.

RTB I’ve given up on trying to fathom the efficacy rates for the vaccines against Omicron because no one seems to have a straight answer. Which I understand because it’s a new variant but when claims are being made and then rubbished within hours it doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence.

So for those of us under 40 who are double jabbed (Pf/AZ) and Covid recovered do we actually have any Omicron immunity or are we starting from scratch again?

@RedToothBrush

Why are all tomorrow's headlines about how 3 doses of pfizer are 75% effective. But not about how two doses of AZ are zero effective?

Lots of over 40s cant get bookings for a booster even though they are eligible. Dh had AZ even though hes 39. Hes not even eligible.

SA used pfizer not AZ.

That number is a BIG worry and should set off alarm bells because of how the UK vaccinated.

I’m really confused re this 75% effective thing, effective against catching it or effective against serious illness? And what was the percentage (of 2 doses) against Delta? Is 75% good?

I also don’t understand AZ being 0%, two doses are 0% effective? Isn’t that a terrible thing??

The drop in protection is for mild and moderate symptoms. They say that protection from death and sever illness should hold up - due to be reported next week.

Quoting "However, when boosted with a dose of Pfizer vaccine, there was around 70% protection against symptomatic infection for people who initially received AstraZeneca, and around 75% protection for those who received Pfizer."

@RedToothBrush

Why are all tomorrow's headlines about how 3 doses of pfizer are 75% effective. But not about how two doses of AZ are zero effective?

Lots of over 40s cant get bookings for a booster even though they are eligible. Dh had AZ even though hes 39. Hes not even eligible.

SA used pfizer not AZ.

That number is a BIG worry and should set off alarm bells because of how the UK vaccinated.

I was just giving the bbc news coverage a hard stare because of that.

If two doses of Astra Zeneca have zero vaccine effectiveness against Omicron then people need to know that all vaccines are not equal.

There are a lot of people in no hurry to get their booster jab because they were told how amazingly effective two doses were.

And of course certain types are pushing the idea now that omicron is so mild it's practically medicine which also discourages booster take up.

If AZ has zero vaccine effectiveness against omicron then that tahrs any calculation of the UK's % vaccine coverage down a big chunk.

I could book my jab a few weeks ago abs did so, then had to manage it twice. At that point it was still 6 months though, so a few days before Xmas. Before something went wrong and I got a call your Gp message, I noticed they'd put the option of vaccines on Xmas day! Vaccine bus is ambling around again too; a 40+ pregnant friend got a walk in vax. I was given a local number to ring and ended up getting my jab yesterday, booked before they'd officially announced the 3 months

I think they're maximising as many jabs as possible over the next 4 weeks. She said as long as it was over 12 weeks since the last, and that was last week.

I think the age will reduce v soon.

@RedToothBrush

Why are all tomorrow's headlines about how 3 doses of pfizer are 75% effective. But not about how two doses of AZ are zero effective?

Lots of over 40s cant get bookings for a booster even though they are eligible. Dh had AZ even though hes 39. Hes not even eligible.

SA used pfizer not AZ.

That number is a BIG worry and should set off alarm bells because of how the UK vaccinated.

This is what will close schools. Huge numbers of teaching staff under 40 with minimal or no protection after AV. All those threatening to march on the school closure thread may as well shout at the moon. I have a child in Y11 so I really want him in school, I just don’t see how it’s going to play out any other way.

What about the CEV, will they be told shield again or will they take the risk that the boosted vaccines will hold up?

Why are all tomorrow's headlines about how 3 doses of pfizer are 75% effective. But not about how two doses of AZ are zero effective?

To be fair, The Guardian reported it differently. although some on MN think that means it is practically fake news

@Piggyinblankets

Why are all tomorrow's headlines about how 3 doses of pfizer are 75% effective. But not about how two doses of AZ are zero effective?

To be fair, The Guardian reported it differently. although some on MN think that means it is practically fake news

The daily fail are reporting it now that tow az offer no protection. Great can't get booster until the 4th.

Those saying that two dowse of AZ have zero effect against Omicron are being both factually incorrect and overly pessimistic.

Two doses of AZ may have zero effect in preventing symptomatic infection. However, they still have a massive effect on what infection looks like.

Most double vaccinated people will experience a very mild infection, from a slight headache to a few days in bed. And the odds of winding up in hospital are tiny, with the odds of ICU another factor less.

For a double vaccinated person, it will be ‘a cold’ or, at worst, mild ‘flu’. For an unvaccinated person, it is rolling the dice, from asymptomatic to severe ill.

@RedToothBrush

Why are all tomorrow's headlines about how 3 doses of pfizer are 75% effective. But not about how two doses of AZ are zero effective?

Lots of over 40s cant get bookings for a booster even though they are eligible. Dh had AZ even though hes 39. Hes not even eligible.

SA used pfizer not AZ.

That number is a BIG worry and should set off alarm bells because of how the UK vaccinated.

Possibly to avoid panic?

I’m early 40’s double AZ. So I have zero protection.

At present I can’t get a vaccination until 10 Jan, unless I want it on Christmas Eve (loads of appointments left for then).

I feel a bit panicked tbh.

@RedToothBrush

Why are all tomorrow's headlines about how 3 doses of pfizer are 75% effective. But not about how two doses of AZ are zero effective?

Lots of over 40s cant get bookings for a booster even though they are eligible. Dh had AZ even though hes 39. Hes not even eligible.

SA used pfizer not AZ.

That number is a BIG worry and should set off alarm bells because of how the UK vaccinated.

Yes - I am over 40, have had two doses of AZ - last dose 5.5 months ago - and I can’t book a booster.

I’m early 40’s double AZ. So I have zero protection.

Against symptomatic infection. As a pp said, you probably still have some protection against serious illness. I’m getting really angry at our politicians/media whipping up fear like this when the data so far from SA looks positive. It was reported yesterday that cases appear to be slowing in some regions too.

@RedToothBrush

Why are all tomorrow's headlines about how 3 doses of pfizer are 75% effective. But not about how two doses of AZ are zero effective?

Lots of over 40s cant get bookings for a booster even though they are eligible. Dh had AZ even though hes 39. Hes not even eligible.

SA used pfizer not AZ.

That number is a BIG worry and should set off alarm bells because of how the UK vaccinated.

You are scaremongering in a very irresponsible way.

It's my understanding that the AZ vaccine will continue to offer significant protection against serious illness, which Omicron appears to cause less of anyway. That's the most important thing. Your post implies the opposite.

2 doses of AZ may provide little protection against some kind of symptomatic infection, and someone recently given a booster shot of Pfizer may be 75% protected against symptoms, but we've been working on the assumption for months that being double-jabbed is only going to reduce your chances of infection somewhat. When my dd got Covid back in October I remember being really surprised no one else in the house got it despite two of us being double-jabbed, precisely because it was common for double-jabbed people to continue to get infected.

To provide some balance to @RedToothBrush 's frankly irresponsible and scaremongering post, I've quoted the following a couple of paragraphs from the said Guardian article:

"While the effectiveness of the jabs against severe disease is still unknown, the team says it is expected to be higher, drawing parallels to the drop in vaccine effectiveness for Delta when compared with earlier variants.
“We did see this reduction in protection against milder disease with Delta way back in June. And what we didn’t see was any reduction in protection against hospitalisation,” said Ramsay."