Omicron New Variant Thread 2 *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Continuation of the last thread

Surely it is too early to say anything very definite about Omicron?

Therefore no need to panic or feel scared at the moment.

AFAIK the figures about vaccine protection in the press are based on neutralising antibodies. They do not take into account B and T cell protection. The immune system is complex and works on many levels.

And remember that if you are vaccinated you don't only have vaccine protection. You also have the protection that your body's own system provides too. Which should be stronger if you have previous infection but isn't negligible if not.

And there are other things to do. Take vitamins, use social distancing, wear masks, etc.

And the limited information that we have does not suggest that 2 covid vaccines will no longer protect from serious illness.

So,if 2xAZ + Pfizer shot = 70% protection against symptomatic infection
3xPfizer = 75% protection against symptomatic infection

what % protection does 2 x AZ offer ?

And should I be saying severe symptomatic above ?

As Beachcomber says -surely it's too early to be able to give the %s I've quoted ,or to give an answer to the question I've asked .

But I suppose doing so sells papers .

@peridito no, you're right to just say symptomatic, there's no numbers through on severe illness yet

The first line of defence is what the 0/70/75% figures are talking about (for 2xAZ/2xAZ+Pf/3xPf, can't remember what 2xPf is off the top of my head - something like 30/40% I think).
Our immune systems have multiple lines of defence. So the AZ news isn't great, but it's not the whole story.

SA does use pfizer, yes, but the uptake is very low so it's not just that responsible for less severe infection. That being said, they do have far higher prior infection rates than the UK.

Prof Eleanor Riley, professor of immunology and infectious disease at the University of Edinburgh, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme Omicron appeared to be so infectious that "you have to work on the basis that anyone you come into contact with has it".

She said if someone had a taken a lateral flow test and been negative for the virus "within the last few hours" then they could be a little more confident.

"I think Omicron is spreading so quickly that I think unless you are living like a hermit you are very likely to come across it in the next few weeks, I don't think anyone should be going around thinking they are not going to catch it, I think that situation has changed," she said.

So you have a whole bunch of people who in France or Germany who wouldn't get Omicron, but will here because of the vaccine scheme we have used. Working age people. People with kids. Its going to get difficult and messy even if its really bloody mild. The numbers game alone isn't good.

Source www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59619224

Schools are going to be utterly screwed.

And there must be loads of factors such as how recent your vaccination is and how your personal immune system interacted with it.

I don't believe vaccines be they Pfizer, Moderna or AZ won't provide significant protection against illness severity. Current concerns are about infection and transmission. I don't believe the government would have vaccinated so many people if they thought that a new variant would scupper things badly. These things must have been simulated and observed in the development phase of the vaccines. (I don't have any info on this it is speculative but I don't see how vaccines would have been approved otherwise.)

And I say that as a person who has been called antivax on this board!

This from Meaghan Kall:
VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS (symptomatic infection)
caveat: early estimates

Real-world surveillance data shows a significant reduction in VE for Omicron vs Delta

• 2x AZ, VE is ZERO
• 2x Pfizer, VE is ~30%

BUT! Boosters increase VE to 70-75% (Pfizer, in the 1st month)

Interpret VE data with caution due to low numbers & some residual uncontrolled biases.

It is too early to measure protection against severe disease, but with earlier variants protection against hospitalisation & death has been largely preserved. All hoping this holds true.
mobile.twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351833416122369

Does anyone know if being exposed to covid after two vaccinations but not developing it will boost your immunity (as with being exposed to chickenpox if you’ve had the vaccine?). I’ve had two AZ doses and a young DC recently had covid but I didn’t catch it. I’m hoping being exposed will have given me a boost as i am in my 40s and can’t book a booster yet despite it being 5.5 months since my last dose.

I can’t find any data to say if delta infection protects you at all from omicron. Does anyone know? Nicola sturgeon say the cases are doubling every 2 days. I just did a quick calc and that means we would go from 100 cases to 1.6 million in a month. And then after that basically the whole rest of the population gets it if we are still doubling.

"The blunt reality is that if cases in RSA [South Africa] are actually peaking already, there may be an omicron wave in the UK that's noticeable to the statistics nerds, but other than that the whole thing's going to be a damp squib, even if omicron isn't a milder disease."

twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1469625256612610050

@festivefuschias

Does anyone know if being exposed to covid after two vaccinations but not developing it will boost your immunity (as with being exposed to chickenpox if you’ve had the vaccine?). I’ve had two AZ doses and a young DC recently had covid but I didn’t catch it. I’m hoping being exposed will have given me a boost as i am in my 40s and can’t book a booster yet despite it being 5.5 months since my last dose.

I'm not sure there's much data on it, but I did read that scientists definitely expect that to be the case - if you're exposed to the virus this may trigger an antibody response which strengthens your immune system further, even if you don't get ill

@lonelyplanet - it's also worth remembering that those estimates of vaccine effectiveness are completed with unvaccinated people - a large proportion of whom have now had covid (either alpha or Delta) So 2xAZ may still be offering a bit of protection against infection, it's just that it's not any more than the unvaccinated people have on average from past infection.

Though it is quite clear that neither past infection or 2 vaccines protect anywhere near as well for catching Omicron as they did for delta

That should have said compared not completed

Thanks firefliess.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-could-cause-between-25000-and-75000-deaths-in-england-without-tougher-restrictions-experts-12492584

I don't understand the above panic re vaccines. We've known for months that we can still get infected after 2 doses - the important thing is that the symptoms are mild. If they really believed that AZ gave NO protection at all, millions would need to start over again and have 3 doses of Pfizer. The booster is just that: a 'boost' to the protection you already have.

@containsnuts

I don't understand the above panic re vaccines. We've known for months that we can still get infected after 2 doses - the important thing is that the symptoms are mild. If they really believed that AZ gave NO protection at all, millions would need to start over again and have 3 doses of Pfizer. The booster is just that: a 'boost' to the protection you already have.

I don’t the panic about AZ either.

With two AZ and Pfizer booster we’re in a better position.

@Dogatetheleftovers

The UK Health Security Agency are reporting that the new variant will exceed one million cases per day by Christmas if current infection rates continue. That’s so frightening.

I don't think it's per day.

I what they meant when they said it on the news. The newsreader just said "exceed one million cases" so I took that to mean 1 million cases circulating in the population at one time or one million people that have tested positive in total.

*wondered what they meant

@GreenLunchBox

I what they meant when they said it on the news. The newsreader just said "exceed one million cases" so I took that to mean 1 million cases circulating in the population at one time or one million people that have tested positive in total.

Don't we currently have around 1 million cases 'circulating'?

[quote lalahotpants]news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-could-cause-between-25000-and-75000-deaths-in-england-without-tougher-restrictions-experts-12492584[/quote]
That's between 150 and 500 deaths each day... The low case is what we have had since September... The 500 is less than half what we has for the 2nd and 3rd peaks.... so this isn't that bad in my opinion.

how ghoulish

[quote Warhertisuff]@GreenLunchBox

I what they meant when they said it on the news. The newsreader just said "exceed one million cases" so I took that to mean 1 million cases circulating in the population at one time or one million people that have tested positive in total.

Don't we currently have around 1 million cases 'circulating'?[/quote]
They are talking of a possible figure of a million cases a day

Well those types of predictions have never been wrong before so I guess we should all panic.