Omicron New Variant Thread 2 *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Continuation of the last thread

@DockOTheBay

Sky news are giving very mixed messages here.

4pm Wednesday "most omicron cases are mild" news.sky.com/story/covid-19-most-omicron-cases-are-mild-and-theres-no-evidence-to-suggest-vaccines-may-be-less-effective-against-the-variant-says-who-12483729

1am Thursday "Omicron a real cause for concern" news.sky.com/story/covid-19-emerging-picture-from-south-africa-suggests-omicron-variant-could-be-real-cause-for-concern-12484064

I'm surprised if the data did a 180 in those 9 hours

The worry is that the first is based on ancedodal reports by a couple of doctors of less than 10 patients each whilst the second is based on data of actual hospitalisations in South Africa so is likely to be more reliable.

Disappointing news from S.Africa.
Placemarking thanks for the new thread

As usual number of cases is not the most important factor. It is whether the strain is causing more deaths/hospitalisations than previous ones.

The media is not helping with the constant scare-mongering.

Well let’s hope it’s really bad.. it would be a shame if the people on this thread were worritting for nothing.

@DockOTheBay

The mail online was leading earlier (its now the second story on the website) with an article about how a triple vaccinated Israeli thinks he contracted Omicron at a conference with 1250 people on 23rd November. In London.

Isn't this a good thing if true? Would suggest omicron has been around for over a week already and yet no increase in cases.

Besides he might "think" he caught it in London but we know that some people have a 10 day incubation period (hence the 10 day isolation) so very difficult to pin down date.

I’m not sure that it can’t be circulating relatively undetected atm - from what I’ve read the main symptoms aren’t necessarily consistent with the only 3 the nhs require testing for.

The news though mixed isnt actually in direct competition though - most cases can be mild (they are tbf for most variants) and still highly transmissible.

It is difficult to read but to me the hospitialisation wave in South Africa doesnt look any steeper (or shallower) than previous waves which would also lend to the mild bit.

To be fair Reastie Delta is similar in the outbreak at DS school it was a lot of headaches, sore throats and stomach aches. It was only due to the outbreak it was tested.

We have had original (antibody test) Alpha and Delta in my family (only once each) and the symptoms have been different each time

Thank you for the new thread

On S gene drop out and how it’s rising in the UK:

twitter.com/_nickdavies/status/1466204363110633476?s=21

@RedToothBrush

Well I'd say that there's probably a pretty big number of cases in the UK now. And that is pretty transmittable even if you are double vaccinated or triple vaxxed.

So I think the important big question now moves to how serious it is.

Indeed. Even if Omicron causes less serious infection, it could nonetheless be more serious if it's significantly more transmissible.

The current R with Delta appears to be hovering around 1, and has done for months based on the broadly flat case numbers. If Omicron had a R of even 1.2, and the aver average time it took to pass infection on was 5 days, cases would double in a fortnight, and quadruple in a month. So even if Omicron was 25% less likely to lead to hospitalisations, (an optimistic scenario), hospitalisations would be three times current levels by New Year.

I’m not sure that it can’t be circulating relatively undetected atm - from what I’ve read the main symptoms aren’t necessarily consistent with the only 3 the nhs require testing for.

But then neither are Delta symptoms in a significant number of cases. The 3 main symptoms have been outdated since the spring!

No.

It took several months for previous new waves to start getting going after initial cases were identified. I wouldn't expected it to start going up.

I have to say the rate of increase in cases is troubling coupled with the anecdotes of double and triple vaxxed. It means the stability of the last few months in the uk is untenable. And that suggests restrictions incoming in the new year.

@DockOTheBay

Sky news are giving very mixed messages here.

4pm Wednesday "most omicron cases are mild" news.sky.com/story/covid-19-most-omicron-cases-are-mild-and-theres-no-evidence-to-suggest-vaccines-may-be-less-effective-against-the-variant-says-who-12483729

1am Thursday "Omicron a real cause for concern" news.sky.com/story/covid-19-emerging-picture-from-south-africa-suggests-omicron-variant-could-be-real-cause-for-concern-12484064

I'm surprised if the data did a 180 in those 9 hours

I think this is where the media is, very mixed, so need more data / information

But then neither are Delta symptoms in a significant number of cases. The 3 main symptoms have been outdated since the spring!

I agree with this. The vast majority of people I know who have tested positive in the last few months didn't have a single one of the 3 main symptoms. They usually had headaches, fatigue, felt achy, and sometimes had diarrhoea / stomach ache

It’s interesting as my friend has just recovered from 2 days of severe headache. She lives in central London.
She said it was really intense and just kept taking paracetamol. She’s fine now but we were wondering if it had been that.
She didn’t seek any medical treatment. Maybe it is going around and people are just putting it down to having a migraine.

I agree with this. The vast majority of people I know who have tested positive in the last few months didn't have a single one of the 3 main symptoms. They usually had headaches, fatigue, felt achy, and sometimes had diarrhoea / stomach ache
Which takes us right back to when did covid really start in the UK as so many had these symptoms at the end of 2019. We'll never know.

There was a report that they think Omicron may have started in Europe- but only picked up in South Africa. (Again speculation) Can't remember where I read that- possibly Twitter.

Covid overall for most people is mild- it is the vulnerable we need to worry about, if it spreads over Christmas then the NHS could be in more trouble in the new year. As if a lot of people have it, it won't take much for the numbers to build up.

It is a wait and see over all.

The three main symptoms ( according to the government) is
High temperature
New and persistent cough
Loss of taste and smell

I didn't get the first two , but the pcr was positive and still recovering now what feels like weeks later. I did have hot and cold chills , achy legs , fatigue , feeling sick , stomach problems , could hardly move around without having to sit down again headaches and brain fog. A few coughing fits, but hardly persistent.
I feel that their list of symptoms need updating!
If omnicron is just cold symptoms , but not that debilitating , then people might not even bother testing for it.
The headaches were awful.

When I had covid in early January pre vaccines, and I assume alpha or delta variant, my symptoms were headache and fatigue, the same and what is being suggested to be the main omicron symptoms. I only knew it was covid W becuase I needed a pcr for travel.

I see no evidence to suggest omicron is milder than previous variants.

I think we are going to see issues with people not testing for two reasons. The first is the ten day isolation issue again. And the second is that if you arent coughing (your symptoms are silent as it were) there isn't a compelling social pressure to get tested in the same way.

That alone could mean we are in for trouble with this one if vaccinated people are getting it in such high numbers.

The only good bit of news is the point that it seems the earliest information suggests vaccines do seem to be improving outcomes for vaccinated.

But yeah I am becoming slightly more apprehensive for a few reasons.

This new outbreak in the uk seems to be hitting London first (again) which is what you would expect with population density (but also remember demographics of London also tend to be younger than the regions).

I have a cursory scan of travellingtabby most days. I've noticed over the last couple of days numbers are creeping up in the southeast with over 9000 cases yesterday. Just hoping Omicron isn't well and truly in circulation there. Could there be any other reason for it?

Morning, I’ve asked for thread title to be changed- sorry it was a rushed thread the last was on 998 posts and forgot to link the first thread which was…

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4410793-New-Covid-variant-title-edited-by-MNHQ-at-OPs-request

Haven’t got much to add except I agree with others who have said the messaging so far is vey mixed. For most of us on here who follow the data and don’t rely on tabloids and social media it’s easy to see beyond the headlines but for the casual reader I imagine a few people are fairly confused.

It doesn’t help that certain influences may be capitalising on this void of certainty to add to their own political or financial gains. Combine this with the general fear of Christmas being ‘cancelled’ and you have a murky picture.

Thanks for the new thread.

Helpful thread here from John Burn-Murdoch of the FT. Apologies if already posted. It shows some up to date data on Gauteng province, including hospitalisations which are rising but at the moment pretty much level with the rise for previous variants. The cases and positivity graphs are worrying though.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466136354308476939?t=b43GMHonZaWE0e-rSMDY0g&s=19

@quiteathome

There was a report that they think Omicron may have started in Europe- but only picked up in South Africa. (Again speculation) Can't remember where I read that- possibly Twitter.

Covid overall for most people is mild- it is the vulnerable we need to worry about, if it spreads over Christmas then the NHS could be in more trouble in the new year. As if a lot of people have it, it won't take much for the numbers to build up.

It is a wait and see over all.

I've read that the Omicron did first start in Africa, however it was likely in Europe earlier than late November because there's so much air travel back and forth:

twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1466004736398737413

However (someone else on Twitter said) it surely wasn't in Europe in October, if it existed then, because so much sequencing takes place on this continent and it wasn't detected.

[quote Madhairday]Thanks for the new thread.

Helpful thread here from John Burn-Murdoch of the FT. Apologies if already posted. It shows some up to date data on Gauteng province, including hospitalisations which are rising but at the moment pretty much level with the rise for previous variants. The cases and positivity graphs are worrying though.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466136354308476939?t=b43GMHonZaWE0e-rSMDY0g&s=19[/quote]
That I think shows the messages arent that mixed. It looks to be a very transmissible variant causing high cases because the case graph shows very high growth.

However the hospital growth is on the first/beta wave growth rather than Delta which could show milder cases.

If it is highly transmissible and mild it is still a cause for concern due to the fact that will be a certain number it isnt mild for