Things are moving fast. And they are going to move faster last week. We are into political psycho drama land where people are doing all sorts and pretending different even when they are fully in the knowledge of what they will eventually do.
I'm still not inclined to think we will be into formal social distancing rule of 6 type restrictions or more pre-christmas as things stand (I am starting to waiver on that thought though. Ask me again in a few days!)
Something I note is how far has Scotland gone. Sturgeon is further along than Westminister. But not significantly so. Keep your eyes on that. Sturgeon is limited in terms of financial support, but if she starts begging London pay attention...
I don't believe either government can move before the public penny drops otherwise there will be massive dissent (both with the public and politics). The public definitely isn't ready for it just yet and I think its pointless trying to do too much formally because of the backlash that would create. Its counter productive in terms of behaviour. You'll get people doing things 'just to spite' the government. And can you be reelected PM if you cancel two christmas in a row? Especially with the Christmas Party row still fresh in minds.
However I note that whilst there is a vocally anti-restriction mood, a lot of people and businesses are doing doing different and voting with feet at the same time too. Behavioural change is happening. So a softer push might be as effective anyway at this point.
Instead I think we are currently most likely to get a fudge of strong advisories this week that leave businesses up shit creek with no support and no customers. There isn't a majority appetite in the Cabinet nor parliament to do much more even now. Even Labour isn't calling for much more yet... And Johnson has form for being indecisive...
Timing becomes significant here now I think.
Schools largely only have a week to go. Working from home starts Monday. And hospitalisations have a lag. It takes a day or two for numbers to come through. So some gambling on not 'cancelling' christmas might come in here. Things might just be ok to hang on if you were desparate not to cancel Christmas... (Or they might not...)
I note that parliamentary recess starts on the 16th. And the 3 week review is after that... If parliament is in recess it can't vote. The PM can potentially do emergency things under other laws if needed without parliament in that situation. (Won't be liked but still doable). But I think it'll be timed to start after New Year even if that happens.
Jan is going to be a mess even if omicron is mild. Schools reopening will be interesting... Will they have the staff? Its already looking baked in, even with those stringent restrictions. Even if we have lots of restrictions.
I think its on a knife edge, but why be seen to fuck Christmas too?