Omicron New Variant Thread 2 *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Continuation of the last thread

@Quartz2208

Me personally? No I dont think so, I have seen on threads that you have been asked. I am genuinely interested though as you speak with such confidence about everything else I am sorry though if you dont want to answer the question.

I think I have said what measures I thought I would bring in (including the pre flight test they have) on this thread so I didnt think it would be controversial!

Well, I started screen-shotting my answers.

@PiffleWiffleWoozle

Have just heard from friend I went out to lunch with yesterday they have a positive lateral flow. Hoping it won’t turn out to be omicron. What are my odds?

Very low at present. Around 100 Omicron cases a day Vs 40,000 Delta. Unless your friend has recently returned from South Africa I'd assume it's likely Delta.

Yeah I get all of that I just am not sure that is anything other than a politicians answer and comes from how to deal with Delta - not Omicron

Thanks @Firefliess

@Quartz2208

Yeah I get all of that I just am not sure that is anything other than a politicians answer and comes from how to deal with Delta - not Omicron

It does feel like this

Plus it’s easy to see how hard it is when looking at Germany - who have higher ‘NPI’s

Rising cases and strained healthcare

Meaghan Kall on Twitter:

"Def reached the bargaining stage of variant grief: “I would be happy with boosters having equivalent to 6 month 2-dose effectiveness against Omicron” Folded hands

{imho this would avoid NHS being overwhelmed which is #1 priority}

In other words, mRNA Booster VE this winter:

• 40-50% against symptomatic infection

• 90%+ against hospitalisation
• 95%+ against death

{I realise this is a privileged high-income-country-centric stance but this is our current situ}"

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1467584750781140997

@Quartz2208

Yeah I get all of that I just am not sure that is anything other than a politicians answer and comes from how to deal with Delta - not Omicron

Well that's my answer until we have facts about omicron: Do what has worked to control this airborne virus before.

Very high rates in Belgium and the Netherlands. Suggestion is that there may be more Omicron there already.

@PrincessNutNuts you were Climbdad?

Presumably the Netherlands is the European country with most links to South Africa, so that isn’t surprising.

Come back Russ Abbot, all is forgiven!

Glad to see Trish is allowed to be quoted!

Russ Abbott, well that’s another thing!! 😉

[quote BlueBlancmange]@PrincessNutNuts you were Climbdad?[/quote]
No I think she was Chavvysexpond

Some good news here

@PrincessNutNuts. is not giving a straight answer . What a surprise .

I think saying to look at what the countries who have far better outcomes and fewer deaths than the UK over the last 22 months are doing is a straight answer. The mitigating factors involved are not a secret. I think saying vaccination rates need to be higher is a straight answer.

Dr John is off with the fairies with his Ivermectin nonsense so whilst I was once a fan I no longer listen to him. Tim Specto of Zoe is the man to go to and he is more circumspect.

twitter.com/timspector

[quote Unsure33]@PrincessNutNuts. is not giving a straight answer . What a surprise .[/quote]
If you feel you know my posting history well enough to say something like that, then you know what I usually say when I'm asked that question.

Until we have new facts about omicron, all I have is the old facts.

What worked with original covid also worked with the more transmissible alpha.

What worked with alpha also worked with the more transmissible delta.

So until we have facts that tell us different, we have to proceed on the basis that the same approach that has worked against previous covid strains can be employed against omicron.

I'm not wedded to any particular NPIs. I just know that PIs aren't enough on their own.

Tim Spector
@timspector
Sadly they are not
@Broken__Monkey
Replying to @timspector
But not if symptoms are basically a common cold, at worst.

@milkyaqua

I think saying to look at what the countries who have far better outcomes and fewer deaths than the UK over the last 22 months are doing is a straight answer. The mitigating factors involved are not a secret. I think saying vaccination rates need to be higher is a straight answer.

I thought so too.

@timspector
4h
This is a really important observation- that although we should be happy as individuals if Omicron infections are less severe - the extra transmission will cause more deaths in the population. So let’s not get complacent
@AdamJKucharski
Dec 28, 2020
Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short thread... 1/
twitter.com/timspector/status/1467570975684411398

Any of the effective covid strategies employed worldwide should be under consideration.

"I think that we should manage the COVID that is spreading worldwide in an effective and strategic way, by employing any of the effective strategies that are effective worldwide in managerial terms."

Be specific, please. What strategies?
As I've said before, COVID management strategies are both effective and easy, but the ones that are effective are not at all easy to do, and the ones that are easy to do don't appear to be very effective.

Be specific - so you can pick each one individually apart and/or squeak about their impingement on your 'freedoms'.

FGS, the numbers speak for themselves.

Countries which have had low cumulative deaths over the past 22 months, have mostly done this primarily through keeping the virus out OR suppressing it very hard, during the period when a) vaccines were not available and b) COVID strains were a lot less transmissible.

Well, yes, of course I am going to pick them apart.

That's part and parcel of having a conversation that is about nuts and bolts, as opposed to having a conversation that consists of "We should control COVID effectively by doing things that are effective. See? IT'S PERFECTLY SIMPLE, EVERYONE."