Omicron New Variant Thread 2 *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Continuation of the last thread

@AlecTrevelyan006 thats dreadful! Hang you head in shame.

Though I did giggle at this from a star journalist:
Adam Cailler@acailler
Steps: plaguing the UK since the late 90s.

South Africa reports 16,055 new coronavirus cases, up 468% from last week.

I'm pondering the significance of the fact that not all PCR tests will be processed in labs able to detect the S gene drop out .

Apparently only 50% of our labs have this capability.And even where the S drop out is detected further testing is needed to confirm it's omnicron .
And we don't know how many private companies ,who do the testing for travellers ,can test for the S drop out .

I wonder if we'll soon be back to contacts of positive covid testees having to isolate for 10 days ? Which will cause staff shortages in vital industries .

My view is that we're all going to be exposed to the new variant and that the gov are holding off until after Christmas to introduce stricter measures .Which I think will be overdue as hospitals have higher admissions and can't cope .

There’s generally a 3 Week lag between rising cases and hospital admissions. The seven day average number of positive cases is up by 1% and as there are currently only 22 known cases of omicron in the U.K. I think the chances of hospitals being over run over the festive season is pretty slim.

[quote manolantern]UKHSA has linked 20 Omicron cases in England with vaccine status.

12 - at least double-vaxed
2 - single-vaxed
6 - unvaccinated

HEALTH WARNING: This tells us almost nothing at the moment. A lot of England is double-vaxed so you would expect that to be biggest absolute number.

Also:

"Interesting. But given the sample is almost certainly selected by international travel history, even I'll concede that calculating a VE number is useless."

twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1466807512603181057[/quote]
twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1466807285028642820
More on this

Meaghan Kall @kallmemeg
Moving onto epidemiology of the 22 confirmed cases

The age/sex distribution of confirmed cases shows Omicron mainly affecting young & middle-aged adults.

Only 1 case in a child
No cases in people aged 70+

8/17 cases have known travel to a Red List country

7/17 have unknown travel status (to date)

So yeah, definitely looks massively self selecting so far.

Regionally, SGTF is rising fastest in East Midlands, London and South East.

This matches the location of confirmed Omicron cases

and

99.8% of cases in England last week are Delta

"It looks like Omicron could be already 1 in 200 cases in the UK.
If its proportion doubles every week it could be dominant in 7 weeks."

twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer/status/1466825628552941570

Another analysis of the UKHSA report concludes:

"Growth looks fast in a country with immunity mostly from vaccines, rather than previous infection (and with a big ongoing Delta wave). We'll know a lot more soon, but this is not reassuring."

twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1466827253824864263

@AlecTrevelyan006

There’s generally a 3 Week lag between rising cases and hospital admissions. The seven day average number of positive cases is up by 1% and as there are currently only 22 known cases of omicron in the U.K. I think the chances of hospitals being over run over the festive season is pretty slim.

No, but mass travel and indoor socialising will do a lovely job of spreading it about ready for a surge of hospitalisations by late Jan. It's 2021 all over again

New restrictions in Ireland
news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ireland-brings-in-new-restrictions-ahead-of-christmas-due-to-very-stark-health-advice-12485681

Info here

@peridito I agree

Things are about to go tits up again aren't they? Have such a feeling of utter dread.

[quote lalahotpants]New restrictions in Ireland
news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ireland-brings-in-new-restrictions-ahead-of-christmas-due-to-very-stark-health-advice-12485681[/quote]
Ireland has had such a tough time with restrictions : (

I have can't understand why things are spinning weak and lax in schools when rates are so high, dc have both said no masks are worn, no one asks them too.
Students come in ill, coughing with no pcr tests etc.
What's going on.
Dd said windows are mostly open but they are so narrow it still gets stuffy?

@MumbleCrumbs

Things are about to go tits up again aren't they? Have such a feeling of utter dread.

I do have a very February 2020/Autumn 2020 deja vu.

@PrincessNutNuts

So do I. It seems inevitable.

Have to hope that the vaccines whilst not stopping transmission, do help keep very serious illness at bay. The stats on hospital admissions in S Africa are very concerning though. If it comes here in numbers and vaccines don’t work then it’s not going to be pleasant. Fingers crossed it burns out at quickly as it arrived!

Remember though South Africa has a low level of vaccine and its infrastructure is different. Just because it has a wave like that doesnt mean it will be the same everywhere it never has been

Ireland for the most part though is dealing with increasing numbers of Delta infections as well - rises since early November. Omicron hasnt seeded in.

At the moment there still seems to be quite a bit of filling in the gaps by everybody

twitter.com/tuliodna/status/1466820922141298693?s=21

SA head of epidemiology

“Two weeks ago we were in 200-300 cases a day, a week ago in the 1000s and now > 15,000. In addition 1 of 4 tests are positive in South Africa. Amazing increasing of #OmicronVarient“

@MumbleCrumbs

Things are about to go tits up again aren't they? Have such a feeling of utter dread.

I think Steps might fuck up a lot of Christmases.

I think thats the one to watch now.

I think large scale events may yet go if we suddenly saw 100+ cases for one event.

It would put the frighteners on every one.

@RedToothBrush what do you think large scale events count as? I'm going to a wedding (after debating it) next Friday - booked train and hotel. 100 people! Wonder if I can get a refund if they uninvited me

Odds from you please?

There's already a superspreader Xmas party in Europe

www.reuters.com/world/europe/omicron-outbreak-norway-christmas-party-is-biggest-outside-s-africa-authorities-2021-12-03/

This gig on 21st December in Bristol looks a chance to hear all the hits including "I've got a brand new Covid-19 variant"...

Great summary of what is known and what remains to be discovered about Omicron:

mobile.twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1466845357686640640

Mass events. It was a limit of 30 on weddings and funerals wasn't it, for a private function. So that. Rule of 6 elsewhere looking ever more likely. Government will hold off as long as possible (against advice and a lot of reason i suspect). I think it will be a point of criticism come mid January.

I do think January could start looking like a repeat of next year. A few big omicron outbreaks in school pre-Christmas could really set nerves off.

@RedToothBrush do you think they'll go from no limits to that in a week? Would be a huge shift. If they do, we are on the lockdown express