Omicron New Variant Thread 2 *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Continuation of the last thread

[quote manolantern]Great summary of what is known and what remains to be discovered about Omicron:

mobile.twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1466845357686640640[/quote]
This is useful thanks

@JanglyBeads

twitter.com/tuliodna/status/1466820922141298693?s=21

SA head of epidemiology

“Two weeks ago we were in 200-300 cases a day, a week ago in the 1000s and now > 15,000. In addition 1 of 4 tests are positive in South Africa. Amazing increasing of #OmicronVarient“

Scary 😨

[quote KUdos6]@PrincessNutNuts

So do I. It seems inevitable.

Have to hope that the vaccines whilst not stopping transmission, do help keep very serious illness at bay. The stats on hospital admissions in S Africa are very concerning though. If it comes here in numbers and vaccines don’t work then it’s not going to be pleasant. Fingers crossed it burns out at quickly as it arrived![/quote]
I always think we have options and agency.

I would prefer that we employ the precautionary principle, and do all we can to slow the spread of the potentially dangerous new variant through our children's schools and Steps concerts and deny it the chance to establish itself.

At least until we have confidence in what we know.

SAGE agrees with RTB!

www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-97-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-29-november-2021

I am worried.

The data coming in isn't particularly great. Caseload alone isn't looking favourable. Then theres a gradual build up of small little things without much looking much more optimistic (which is what we really need to see signs of).

A few big outbreaks and i think panic will begin set in. Whether or not that comes to pass. And thats where it becomes about how long Johnson will hold out against the right of his party. And what form that takes. (I think Sturgeon will crack significantly sooner than Johnson but she can't fund a lockdown easily without extra support from Westminster and thats relevant).

I think this will be something of a battle of 'holding nerve' by the government itself for a while yet.

But you can already feel the pressure rapidly starting to build though. I think thats going to ramp up fast if we have high publicity scary cases or data on young children gets really unpleasant (im not liking what im seeing atm).

Will they leave it too late to put in restrictions if they are needed? Almost certainly. Can they move yet? Nope because unfortunately we have the catch 22 that the public (and tory party) won't accept it until people start to get properly frightened this time. That's the problem.

We need to see something significant which makes us look different to SA in the next 4 or 5 days, I'd say. Otherwise the mood is really going to change for the worse.

Looking at the SAGE report I think vaccination passports and testing (and strigently enforced) will be in first
Household contact isolation I think will be - and then lots of testing for others. Perhaps even close contact PCR testing to release
I also think pre entry LFT fit to fly will come in

And mask rules back

That will I think be the next stage.

@Quartz2208 plus WFH. That will be first, surely?

Back to Lilico for some balance

[quote weddingguesttbc]@Quartz2208 plus WFH. That will be first, surely?[/quote]
Yes I meant to include that! Totally agree with that one.

Doctors in Norway are saying they think the incubation time for omicron is much shorter at between two and four days, much shorter than seven to 14 days for earlier variants based on what they've seen with the infamous superspreader event there where 60 have seemingly have got it.

I'm guessing that makes a big difference between you can have up to 7 generations of spread in the same time as previous variants. That would make it spread quite a bit faster...

(a very short incubation period makes it harder for contact tracers to keep pace)

On the other hand wouldn't a short incubation period mean you spent less time walking around haplessly infecting people?

So might that not fit with a less infectious profile (have been wondering this)?

That could help though - if it is so short then maybe a contact isolation period of 4 days then PCR test to come out could solve the pingdemic issue of close isolation and the transmissibility.

@manolantern

Back to Lilico for some balance

He said the same about Delta.

@herecomesthsun

On the other hand wouldn't a short incubation period mean you spent less time walking around haplessly infecting people?

So might that not fit with a less infectious profile (have been wondering this)?

Not if you have milder / different symptoms and perhaps don't think its worth testing...

Here comes, good point!

What a nightmare!
I feel positive in that once we get through this winter with vaccines put to the test etc we will know so much more a new varient for scientists to see how they can tweak vaccines effectively I'm sure we will be on the home straight but trying to get through the next few weeks to get there

I think though the 10 day isolation is off putting - particularly for close contacts. Testing out at day 3 or 4 could solve that (for close contacts) and maybe testing out for those with it at day 5 to see if they were

I think trying some sensible precautions now (WFH, vaccine passports, testing maybe the above isolation tactics) alongside boosters should come in now

Masks in secondary classrooms might be a good idea too…..

Yawn 🥱 we’re all going to get. Can’t afford to lock down again. Take sensible precautions and as you were.
How many letters in the Greek alphabet, we’re going to need them all….

Thought these were interesting:

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-02/omicron-shows-the-cost-of-vaccine-disparity-between-nations/100666678

www.abc.net.au/news/health/2021-12-04/covid-omicron-how-viruses-mutate-why-it-has-emerged-now/100672516

Independent Sage is really good on omicron this week.

I've just listened to it in the bath because that's the kind of rock 'n' roll life I lead.

@Quartz2208 and @JanglyBeads I do too.

But we're probably all underestimating the U.K. government's willingness to gamble with our lives for as long as it seems like they're getting away with it, and their unwillingness to learn from the first three months and the last three months of 2020 that "too little too late" makes everything worse for longer.

@MH1111

Yawn 🥱 we’re all going to get. Can’t afford to lock down again. Take sensible precautions and as you were. How many letters in the Greek alphabet, we’re going to need them all….

Don't worry. It is rumoured that the constellations will be used next.

The big dipper variant.

No wonder they are 'concerned to say the least.

twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1466828284445040645

Re the steps gig.

Under Scottish law venues need to check vaccine passports if there are more than 500 people standing, or 10,000 people overall.

9,187 seated tickets were sold for the event. Thus making it not necessary to use the passport system.

I have to wonder why the Scottish government set such ridiculous criteria tbh. Its fairly obvious that promoters would do this rather than deal with prohibitive costs and staffing. It does make me wonder what the point in a passport is, if you set thresholds like that. I wonder if everyone at the venue thst night is now deemed a close omicron contact? How far off a seating plan do you go? Seats A13 to A33, but hey lucky A12 and A34 you can go out and play!??

Bonkers system which arguably is worse than not having vaccine passports in the first place. If you are going to do vaccine passports, they need to actually make sense.