New Covid variant *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Wingingthis]

Can anyone talk some sense about how dangerous this is or is it just the media over exaggerating?

Slightly off topic but has anyone else noticed the news cycle has gone awfully quiet about the Austria lockdowns and recent spikes in European cases?

@Thewiseoneincognito they have something else to focus on now! Something scarier

No it’s not just that it is scarier it is that it effects us that is the difference

Here's a bumper Twitter thread from a Yale professor summarising the state of play. Though naturally it's a bit "we don't know yet" and "here's what I think of what I read in the papers":

twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1465435870828322817

Thought it was very balanced and informative

@Quartz2208

Thought it was very balanced and informative

I was managing expectations :).

Al Jazeera English: Vaccines likely no match for Omicron, says Moderna CEO.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/30/hong-kong-bans-non-resident-arrivals-over-new-covid-strain-fears

[quote manolantern]Here's a bumper Twitter thread from a Yale professor summarising the state of play. Though naturally it's a bit "we don't know yet" and "here's what I think of what I read in the papers":

twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1465435870828322817[/quote]
Anyone getting concerned or beginning to slowly panic should read this.

The tone is in line with what the government is saying.

It is measured and honest. And points out how closed borders are pointless to keep omicron out and gives a case study about how transmissible omicron is even in quarantine facilities (which begs the question how effective are they against highly transmissible viruses. I think NZ had a good case study on this with Delta...)

Nothing is suggesting that omicron is more severe yet - even amongst an unvaccinated population. The converse is also true though, we haven't ruled out thats its going to be a problem for older people and because of sheer numbers.

But yes, on the whole its very sane. I wish we were hearing more like this rather than headlines screaming about it evading vaccines and the R of 24563.3

The Moderna FT article summarised in more detail.

Euronews: Omicron variant likely to resist COVID vaccines as updated jabs months away, warns Moderna CEO.
www.euronews.com/next/2021/11/30/omicron-variant-likely-to-resist-covid-vaccines-warns-moderna-ceo?utm_source=news.google.com&utm_campaign=feeds_coronavirus&utm_medium=referral

I think though there is a difference between a material drop and less effective and how that relates to the stopping seriousness of the disease (and they are more confident on this point remaiming) which I think is going to undoubtedly be true and turning that into vaccines likely no match

That Twitter thread is a really useful read. He summarises things in such an easy to understand way.

[quote vera99]Al Jazeera English: Vaccines likely no match for Omicron, says Moderna CEO.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/30/hong-kong-bans-non-resident-arrivals-over-new-covid-strain-fears[/quote]
What possible motivation could the moderna ceo have for wanting to tweak the vaccine and require people to have another 2-3 doses?

Whilst I understand the financial motivations of a big pharma boss I'm not that cynical that he would be happy to trash his reputation to indulge in unwarranted scaremongering if there wasn't substance to his fears. After all it is companies like his and the scientists that work for them that have helped us to get out of this morasse.

There was a vaccine developer on yesterday R4 with opposite message,

I think it’s too early to know.

This is not looking encouraging - SA data:

twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1465646339426033667?s=21

[quote JanglyBeads]This is not looking encouraging - SA data:

twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1465646339426033667?s=21[/quote]
Isn't the point rather that it is looking encouraging?

Because hospitalisations are still in line with previous waves, suggesting that the vaccine is still working?

[quote JanglyBeads]This is not looking encouraging - SA data:

twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1465646339426033667?s=21[/quote]

Need to see what happens to that hospital admissions graph in the next few weeks to draw any conclusions.

What possible motivation could the moderna ceo have for wanting to tweak the vaccine and require people to have another 2-3 doses?

Maybe try looking at what's happened to Moderna's share price since the new variant became headline news, and consider what further effect a new, super-effective tweaked drug could have on it?

@vera99

Whilst I understand the financial motivations of a big pharma boss I'm not that cynical that he would be happy to trash his reputation to indulge in unwarranted scaremongering if there wasn't substance to his fears. After all it is companies like his and the scientists that work for them that have helped us to get out of this morasse.

...but no one yet knows what this new variant will do, whether it will take over from Delta, be more or less serious.

""There is no world, I think, where (the effectiveness) is the same level . . . we had with Delta," Moderna chief executive Stéphane Bancel told the Financial Times.
"I think it's going to be a material drop. I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to . . . are like 'this is not going to be good.'"

He wouldn't be the first CEO to come out with statements that later get "Clarified"

This just in:

Ah it's from Babylon Bee which is a conservative version of The Onion.

That graph shows more cases but less hospitalisations. That could be because south africa has increased the number of people who are vaccinated or it could mean that inital signs suggest it is indeed milder.

If that holds out to be true across age ranges and other demographics, where the problem might lie is in the number of cases - so absences from work are an issue but the number of hospitalisations stays in line with previous waves.

Thats where reinfection rates are the other key point and how big a wave in a highly vaccinated population might get. That could still cause problems with hospitalisations in the uk.

But for now, i would say the graph isnt showing things that should scare you to death. Which is good.

What we could do with is a comparison of hospitalisations in vaccinated groups compared to unvaccinated groups. Thats where you might start to get a real sense of where the uk might be headed in Feb / March time.

Would the hospitalisation lag be showing already?

@Thewiseoneincognito

Would the hospitalisation lag be showing already?

John Burn-Murdoch explain it in the comments below the graph.

Each wave is defined as starting when the rolling 7-day average of cases rose for seven successive days.

So it looks like they are measuring both waves from the same start point - day 1 of the wave if you will - and the number of hospitalisations is the same despite omicron seeming to have more cases compared to delta on the same day.

Thats why I say, the data isn't looking terrible. But there certainly are cavets to that.

Indeed. Of course as it's something a bit different we don't know for certain that the hospital lag isn't greater with this variant. Hence needing to wait for more data.