New Covid variant *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Wingingthis]

Can anyone talk some sense about how dangerous this is or is it just the media over exaggerating?

I don't know who he was , but he was channel four news earlier on via zoom talking about the new variant.
He was fairly gloomy , but as they all say , it is wait and see at the moment.
I only caught the end of his segment

A vaccine developer said it should be ok today

JVT wasn't downbeat.
Neither was the vaccine advisor with him.

Whats interesting is C4 getting a downbeat guy on to give a pessimistic view rather than a more optimstic one.

Thats an editorial decision.

One that I'd argue is perhaps inline with the politics of the c4 news viewership.

@theDudesmummy
If you want more detailed info on daily cases and vaccine updates in SA here is the link. You can actually check up to suburb level updates.

sacoronavirus.co.za/latest-vaccine-statistics/
sacoronavirus.co.za/covid-19-daily-cases/

School in Nottingham mass screening pupils for the variant.

Some practical questions:

Thread from sunday
Janes Ward@jamesward73
Some thoughts on this evening's announcements in so far as they affect boosters, which are:-
* JCVI to consider quickly whether to bring forward boosters from 6m to an earlier point (5 months?)
* Also to consider whether to extend boosters down to all over age 18.

Comments that it was already planned to do 6m in 3 weeks in England, very consistent with the current run rate.

Question is, is there the capacity to go any faster? Simply making more people eligible (eg by bringing forward eligibility) only works if the jabs are available.

Note, bringing forward eligibility from 6m to 5m means millions more become eligible immediately. Extending the age range downwards on its own doesn't (and thus won't mean many more are jabbed in the short term).

Back to capacity, just one example, speaking today to someone in @bathnes, who's already overdue but earliest appt is 14/12 (out of area too). And also the local ccg is cutting back capacity in Dec.

So where is this extra capacity going to come from?

In addition, there was a strong hint that JCVI may soon make a positive decision on 2nd doses for 12 to 15 year olds. That's unlikely to impact on overall demand in the short term though, given the timescales those doses will probably become due.

John Roberts @john_actuary
Anticipating an announcement re boosters later today, a couple of charts looking at the impact re eligibility if it is pulled forward to 5 months.

By age band, green shows those who become immediately eligible - around 6m.

Purple shows those extra eligible by the y/e - 4m

Last Christmas didn’t they keep jabbing all the way through though?

Agree completely with your last post @RedToothBrush

And if capacity can't be significantly increased, definitely the higher risk groups (40+ & the CV) need to be prioritised for boosters. Whether walk-in or booked.

Hopefully, however, capacity can be increased.

@JanglyBeads

Last Christmas didn’t they keep jabbing all the way through though?

They only really started up in any quantity after Christmas due to supply issues. The first clinics were largely run for front line nhs workers and a tiny number of the eldest people in the country. So its not really comparible. There will be some clinics open over Christmas just with limited capacity.

@JanglyBeads

Last Christmas didn’t they keep jabbing all the way through though?

They only gave the first jab on 8th Dec so while it may have kept going, it wasn’t large scale.

I agree redtoothbrush. People who are eligible are already finding it hard to get boosters where I live. I suspect increasing who is entitled will simply mean better-off people who can travel further and are more likely to be able to get time off work at less popular times for the jab, will get the jab over more vulnerable people.

I think that rolling out the vaccines and boosters has been a massive and complex logistical exercise, and along the way there have been some mis-steps in prioritising the more vulnerable to get vaccinated in a timely way. I'd completely agree that we need to get more capacity in the system.

@herecomesthsun

I think that rolling out the vaccines and boosters has been a massive and complex logistical exercise, and along the way there have been some mis-steps in prioritising the more vulnerable to get vaccinated in a timely way. I'd completely agree that we need to get more capacity in the system.

They took their foot off the gas and were scaling it back IMO. As ever they were complacent. It was apparent things had gone wrong when they had to bring back the person (name excapes me) who was in charge of the original rollout.

This is part of the same issue - always trying to get away with the minimum effort, rather than making sure they have got their bases covered.

Many European countries way ahead of % fully vaccinated - Johnson threw away the advantage of early take up and dialled down the urgency. Because he is a reckless twat.

@JanglyBeads

Last Christmas didn’t they keep jabbing all the way through though?

My husband has an appointment for 29th December so some places certainly are working through that Xmas week.

Latest data from SA, some worrying signs:

twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1465394738740224006?s=21

@JanglyBeads any info on whether the people in hospital are vaccinated?

They can’t be vaccinated if under 2, though not sure about other age groups.

mobile.twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1465394738740224006?s=21

Early data suggests high proportion of under twos hospitalised in SA.

[quote 1990butgrey]@JanglyBeads any info on whether the people in hospital are vaccinated?[/quote]
Just got to be careful with this line because not everyone without vaccines is in that position due to choice. The unvaccinated who have cancer for example - rising cases means more of them will die.

There is a clear attempt to say that if you die due to being unvaccinated it doesnt matter - but I am not confortable with this rhetoric. certainly the health care impacts could be serious, and they affect us all.

I don’t think they mean under 2 year olds - I think they mean under 2 cases.

@rrhuth that's not what I'm asking?

Im asking as it would perhaps indicate if the vaccines protected against severe disease, not that they don't matter

[quote 1990butgrey]@rrhuth that's not what I'm asking?

Im asking as it would perhaps indicate if the vaccines protected against severe disease, not that they don't matter [/quote]
OK.

We all await that info I guess...

@HeddaGarbled

I don’t think they mean under 2 year olds - I think they mean under 2 cases.

There's an article in that thread on Twitter that comments on under 2s being hospitalised.

Sorry wrong link above, this is the article referencing the (early, location specific) data on v young children being hospitalised:

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/29/south-africa-omicron-fourth-wave-vaccine/

***

Can I make a suggestion as I see this thread hasn’t got long left, can we have a main Omicron thread after this to continue this dissemination of the news? Clearly we are at the beginning of a new chapter with Covid and I think this has been a great thread this last day or two with level headed discussion.

Either OP starts it or Red, Marsha etc, otherwise important news gets washed in with multiple threads which can be difficult to keep up with. Much like the data stats thread but more news focused?

@PiffleWiffleWoozle

I would use official figures on hospital admissions:

Daily hospitalisation:
www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Datcov-National-Report-20211128.pdf

Weekly
www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/weekly-hospital-surveillance-datcov-update/