New Covid variant *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Wingingthis]

Can anyone talk some sense about how dangerous this is or is it just the media over exaggerating?

Agreed!

The thread was copying COVID....it mutated...!

Sorry. Couldn't resist. If the majority consensus wants to avoid discussion on possible practical mitigations, I'll respect that.

Off for brunch and a healthy walk now so I'll leave the rest of you to unmask the thread 😷

Or perhaps because they weren't the best masks and/or worn and put on/taken off incorrectly.

Didn’t Germany mandate medical grade masks? Didn’t stop their spike in cases/hospitalisations/deaths.

Fair enough.

But do we actually know anything yet?

It seems to spread well, as it’s largely supplanted Delta in SA.

But whether it is more or less severe, the jury is still out on. In SA, the population is markedly less old, so raw death rates don’t translate perfectly.

So far it seems to be that it is more infectious, and causes more illness even in the young, but is overall less deadly.

They’re testing the vaccine’s effectiveness.

I wonder if we’ll find out also the natural immune effectiveness.

I've already posted my theory on another thread but nobody commented, so I'm just going to keep banging on about it

Scientists are speculating that Omicron evolved in a single individual, possibly an untreated HIV/AIDS patient, because the virus clearly had a lot of time in which to mutate (i.e someone wasn't able to fight it off). If this variant survived for such a long time in someone whose immune system was compromised, I'm going to be optimistic and predict that it's likely to cause mild symptoms in just about everyone. It could even be the variant that ends the pandemic.

Obviously I have no clue what I'm talking about, but neither does Boris so....

Great explainer thread on the variant just posted by Prof Francois Balloux:

twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1464913368201015297

@JesusInTheCabbageVan

I've already posted my theory on another thread but nobody commented, so I'm just going to keep banging on about it

Scientists are speculating that Omicron evolved in a single individual, possibly an untreated HIV/AIDS patient, because the virus clearly had a lot of time in which to mutate (i.e someone wasn't able to fight it off). If this variant survived for such a long time in someone whose immune system was compromised, I'm going to be optimistic and predict that it's likely to cause mild symptoms in just about everyone. It could even be the variant that ends the pandemic.

Obviously I have no clue what I'm talking about, but neither does Boris so....

Interesting theory... and it makes sense. We can but hope!

@JesusInTheCabbageVan I like it. Let's go with that 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻

@JesusInTheCabbageVan aye, that'll do for me!

I like that theory @JesusInTheCabbageVan. It follows a logic from my POV but then I know diddly squat too!

It does seem to be a theme that these variants emerge in immunocompromised people. I’m sure that was the same theory for delta?

I don’t understand the endowing the virus with the ability to think - surely it’s just a mutating thing. It has no capacity to decide whether to infect widely, what constitutes the most favourable incubation period or how to seek the most hosts. It is not sentient; it has no brain (at least I hope not!).

Slight fear - and please someone tell me this is wrong - if patient zero had HIV, could this mix with covid to make an airborne- transmissible HIV-virus? And this is what is freaking out those in the know?

Slight fear - and please someone tell me this is wrong - if patient zero had HIV, could this mix with covid to make an airborne- transmissible HIV-virus? And this is what is freaking out those in the know?

No, it definitely could not @DottyHarmer

There are plenty of things to worry about, but airbourne HIV is not one of them!

Slight fear - and please someone tell me this is wrong - if patient zero had HIV, could this mix with covid to make an airborne- transmissible HIV-virus? And this is what is freaking out those in the know?

Yikes! I very much hope not. I think they are freaking out because it seems the R value is close to 2.

Slight fear - and please someone tell me this is wrong - if patient zero had HIV, could this mix with covid to make an airborne- transmissible HIV-virus? And this is what is freaking out those in the know?

No. You can get viral recombination where 2 different different strains of a virus infect the same cell and they swap RNA during replication but they need to be closely related eg 2 strains of influenza, HIV or coronavirus but not HIV and a coronavirus.

The two people in Hong Kong who tested positive with this were both hospitalised.

@bumbleymummy

Or perhaps because they weren't the best masks and/or worn and put on/taken off incorrectly.

Didn’t Germany mandate medical grade masks? Didn’t stop their spike in cases/hospitalisations/deaths.

53% reduction in transmission, still means 47% became infected. And in every country there are people who are not properly exempt refusing to wear masks.

@julieca

The two people in Hong Kong who tested positive with this were both hospitalised.

Not sure if that's true, news stories just say that the HK cases were detected in travellers who are in quarantine hotels.

@manolantern It is in the I today. Yes they were both in the same quarantine hotel, and both were hospitalised.

due to high viral load though so not sure what that means. Or indeed that it wasnt a precautionary thing.

Yes of course we have no idea why. But people are saying everyone so far got it really mildly like a cold, and that is clearly not true.

I keep reading it's a mild variant..
I've no idea, but maybe the scientists just don't know for sure ? It may be mild in SA , but do virus's mutate to become more deadly as it starts to travel around away from its origins ? Chris Whitty said to one of journalists that there was a long answer to one of their questions, but he didn't have time to go into it all last night..
This one is escaping the current vaccines , that's all I know ( and what I've seen on tv )
I'm still hoping it's going to be fine though.

Actually it still could be true - I read it as they were in a precaution due to the high viral load rather than they needed to so it could still be mild. The way it is reported in i news is odd so judgment should be reserved.

The mild comment is based on a SA Dr who has seen patients with it. But she also stressed that her patients have been young and healthy - twenties and thirties. We simply don't know for others.

Don’t worry about the hospitalisation of the Hong Kong patients:

“all confirmed positive cases of covid-19 in Hong Kong are hospitalised for observation, symptomatic treatment, and prevention of onward transmission”

BMJ

The South African Medical Authority have said that. to date, all cases have been mild.