It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

I think we should have stayed in masks indoors in the UK. Or least over Autumn winter. But it's too late now in peak flu / dieing waiting for a ambulance season

I don't think it's too late - it could easily be reintroduced in England from 1 December and kept in force until the end of February. Even if it doesn't reduce covid cases by that much (I believe that it does) it definitely helps against colds and flu - and it's always good to avoid other illnesses so your immune system isn't knackered when it confronts covid.

@dropitlikeitsloth

It’s funny that when our rates were high people on Twitter: We’re such a shit country/plague island etc.

Now we are doing better than a lot of Europe: (silence)

It’s almost like people just love hating on the U.K. and love it when we’re doing badly.

Not all of Europe ... Unless Italy , Spain , Portugal have suddenly dropped out as well

The GP wont necessarily reduce the number if people that want to see you. For example when my afterschool service started charging a penalty parents who were late to pivk up their children, more parents were late as they felt it was worth the fee and they had less social guilt about sraff potentially being unpaid or getting home late to their family

You will get less poor people, but people with money may well start attending for minor ailments they previously didnt bother you with as instead of thinking i shouldnt waste the health service resources, they think "well I paid'

Too early to tell at the moment - I know the strategy was to open up earlier and flatten the curve. It looks a bit like that at the moment but only time will tell. I've also heard some GPs being interviewed saying we cannot compare across countries any more because the testing is so different.

I do this k the NHS has done a brilliant job with the vaccines, possibly better than most countries. I had my booster shortly before getting covid and it was thankfully mild despite being CEV. I am hugely grateful.

I've also noticed more people wearing masks recently - I've been on public transport in London and at football matches and it's definitely increased over the last two months.

we also have excess deaths, still ongoing

@Bagamoyo1 certainly appears that way. Are you familiar with the NZ gunshot victim?
gazette.com/news/new-zealand-man-who-died-of-gunshot-wound-to-be-recorded-as-covid-19-death/article_96f677ab-6e0d-52af-aa9c-a240344a396e.html

Well I certainly hope we can get through this winter. I will be completely annoyed if there are any restrictions over Christmas in terms of mixing. Especially when we could take action now.

I would rather have less than the 3k deaths we have at present in Denmark any day. Yes, our cases are going up and hospitals are under pressure, but the thought of having a PM that didn't seem to care that people have died unnecessarily? Pretty chilling to me.

Boosters are under way here too.

A note of reassurance for all those concerned about mutations.

Sars Cov 2 is a clever virus as it has a spell checker that stops mutations being released. What mutations have occured have all been changes around the spike protein. For a new mutation to take off it has to be more transmissable than the virus it is replacing. The Delta mutation is very very transmissable so mutation surplantation is unlikely, and if they do occur there is a strong likelihood the current vaccines will be protective. That doesnt mean we should not do genome testing on specimens but following the UK's lead, many countries are doing this and that is how we get the data. Uger Sahin, the brains behind the mRNA vaccine has suggested he can produce a new vaccine if necessary in a matter of weeks. So the concern about mutations is falling. Finally mutations arise from long periods of infection in one host ie in immunosuppressed people, and are not related to volume per se. So the benefits to the west from vaccinating the rest of the world relate more to economic growth from re establishing trade than preventing mutation.

Presumably if European countries are having surges in infection now, their death rate will catch up with ours
The European "strategy" ("gamble" seems better?) has been an attempt to reduce the load on hospitals. If you have a huge number of cases all in one wave, then hospitals can't cope, and a disproportionate number of patients die simply as they cannot be treated properly. If you have the same number of cases but in several waves, then you can treat those cases better, so theoretically more will recover. Whether that will work or not is another question - we can't really control how high each wave is - but the mere fact of there being more waves does not equal more deaths.

The U.K. has made loads of decisions that others have actually followed ( extending dose gap springs to mind) and decisions that others should have followed ( but didn’t) carefully following age ranges when rolling out vaccines rather than a more general approach springs to mind here.
I also think our current approach to maintain a high level of cases in the younger less at risk population ( since 19th July) is also looking like a good strategy particularly as the vaccines are not quite as good as we’d hoped.
Even one of the NZ scientists Blakeley (or similar ) commented that NZ ( a previously zero Covid country) should expect and maintain about 2000 cases a day so even he gets it now ( and he was very critical of the U.K. opening up when we did) He likened it to maintaining water level in a bath with water entering via taps and natural immunity but slowly draining away via the plug hole due to vaccine waning. Which I actually think is a very good analogy.

@rrhuth

I’m surprised you find that difficult to understand

Well I am genuinely surprised

@rrhuth

Basically this thread is 'I hope they have loads of deaths in Europe to make the UK's permanent high death numbers look less bad in comparison'.

Yep!

If the uk had vaccinated under 12s sooner the recent death rate would have been lower I think. A significant number of people have died over recent months largely due to the virus ciruclating heavily and unnecessarily amongst this age group. Not to mention the number of people admitted (and thus the strain on services), the numbers of people with long covid (which remains ambiguous and unquantified but seems not to be small), the huge number of school and work days lost recently due to quarantine and illness (and the stress caused) and the immense amount of testing the population undergoes regularly. Living freely in the UK in covid doesn't seem all that free to be honest

But in saying that at the cost of all the above and due to the UKs (absolutly necessary and reactive) response of speeding up the booster campaign, the UK should hopfully avoid further disaster that may be seen elsewhere in Europe this winter. Also the uk vaccinate young and old with flu vaccines whereas only vulnerable and elderly people are vaccinated in many European countries, so flu may less of an issue in the UK.

But then Europe is not all the same. Take Spain insted if Austria in comparison for example. They had a significant relaxation of the rules (mask mandate remained though) and saw a big rise of infections of in the early summer months (esp in younger kids i think). But by September when school started they moved quickly and most over 12s were vaccinated. Combined with mask mandates and ventilated classrooms (easier because of the weather), life in spain has been close to normal (aside from indoor masks for over 6's and bubbles at school). Schools have been open in person all year, extracurriculars as normal. In our school of 2000 kids, 1 class of 25 kids had to quarantine every few weeks (since sept) due to a covid case and they are virtual schooled by their teachers in this time. Also I think as such we have all had to do about 1 or max 2 covid tests (lft or pcr) each since the pandemic began.

But then again Spain's numbers are rising (not like eastern europe) and the potential of winter being difficult remains a threat. I think spain's most recent rate is 120 cases per 100000 vs englands 450 (please correct me if that's wrong ). The booster campaign hasnt been as urgent as in the UK so its going a lot slower (very slow) and that could definitely be a problem in a few weeks or months, especially immunity wains.

It's all been going in waves... a country does well, it relaxes.. takes foot off the breaks.... wave rises again.. I do believe there is going to be a point (and it will come before there is any need to mandate vaccines) though where as the german minister said most people will be vaccinated, recovered or unfortunately dead - and the question is how to minimise the dead number whilst (maintaining quality of life)- by natural infection or vaccination. The natural infection route that the UK has taken since september has most definitely not been without costs and how spain handles its future with vaccines while gently controlling infections (through masks and passports) could really inform whether the UK made some misteps or whether the death rate, admissions it faced are just inevitable (and better gotten over before winter).

[quote Rosehip10]@Bagamoyo1 who "told" you to do this "Dr"? [/quote]
What’s the question?

I think our best asset in the U.K. is a highly trusted health system and an attitude of taking what’s offered to you when it comes to treatment, vaccines and so on. This means take up has been high and we don’t have the toxic atmosphere around vaccines that is developing in a lot of other countries.

I can see real problems brewing in places like Austria where they are trying to force huge numbers to have a vaccine they don’t want and where they have a a very established belief in alternative healthcare. It’s hard to get past that.

I'm not quite sure why the number of deaths is being discussed so much on this thread. At the present time I understand that most of the deaths are in the over 85s with a number of co morbidities. It is not the number of people who die of Covid but the number who die within 28 days of a diagnosis. For this age group Covid may just be one factor - more dying with it than of it. There are of course also those who have failed to be vaccinated and also succumb. I don't see why there is so much concern if death rates are not high, hospital admissions falling and people getting what is now a relatively minor illness, if they are vaccinated.
I don't wear a mask anymore except where it is a requirement. have we forgotten that the mask is to protect others from us? As I have a PCR test and two lateral flows each week at work I think that is enough. I will be retiring next year and want to embrace a life of concerts, festivals, pubs and clubs again, having to work through Covid times, going in every day and supporting the vulnerable has made me anxious and depressed, this has rubbed off into other areas of my life - I constantly find myself worrying that what I say or do is ridiculous. We just need to get on with life now, make sure we are vaccinated and keep rules to the minimum.

For example when my afterschool service started charging a penalty parents who were late to pivk up their children, more parents were late as they felt it was worth the fee and they had less social guilt about sraff potentially being unpaid or getting home late to their family

My son's nursery said that too. They didn't fine parents if they were late for that reason.

"But Dr Chapman also points out this has come at a price - the high rates of infection have resulted in a greater amount of serious illness and death in recent months than many of our Western European neighbours."

And he adds the research should not be seen as a guarantee we will escape the winter without seeing a surge in cases. "We may be in the strongest position - but we could still see cases double and that would cause problems."

Yep!

This is so silly

U.K. numbers high - laughing stock usual rubbish

Germany etc high - U.K. bad for talking about it and why it might be, wrt strategy

At no point say anything positive about U.K.

I hope we’ve got it right so no lockdown, as much as the few keep calling for it the majority will be relieved

we don’t have the toxic atmosphere around vaccines that is developing in a lot of other countries

maybe not so much in England. Scotland, Wales and NI are all mandating vaccine passports though and that annoys (some) people (including me).

@MrsLargeEmbodied

did you mean mental health issues with young people?

That's far more likely.

At what cost though OP…

@herecomesthsun

From the article - "Dr Chapman also points out this has come at a price - the high rates of infection have resulted in a greater amount of serious illness and death in recent months than many of our Western European neighbours."

We have had literally thousands of unnecessary deaths since July.

On the other hand, yes, it's a good idea for vulnerable people to have boosters (which is why we are in a relatively better position this autumn)

Whitty always said that the deaths they expected were inevitable and delaying reopening would merely delay the inevitable.

And I think that still holds up as a valid point.

We would still have a load more unnecessary excess deaths if we had done the opposite purely because we have more issues with hospital capacity than elsewhere.

I don't think its a bullet we could dodge. I think what's playing out in Europe illustrates it rather than says we took the wrong option.

The fact that the German health minister has said we will all end up either vaccinated, recovered or dead with Delta says a lot.

Thats the brutal reality.