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It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

834 replies

Warhertisuff · 23/11/2021 07:06

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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RedRobyn2021 · 23/11/2021 09:05

@ExConstance

Very well said. I hope you have a lovely rejuvenating retirement.

TulipsGarden · 23/11/2021 09:06

The only reason people think that the situation is worse in Europe than it has been in the UK is because of the way the media is reporting it - managed by the government. We have had high levels of cases and deaths for weeks now, the NHS is seriously struggling. Other countries are tightening restrictions at a point that we've been at for some time already - it's just that Boris Johnson doesn't give a shit.

helpfulperson · 23/11/2021 09:07

It's way too early to say which strategy is best. If anything what is happening in Europe shows we are still very much in the middle of this pandemic, not at the end as many on here seem to believe.

PersephoneJames · 23/11/2021 09:08

@MarshaBradyo

If the UK strategy is so good, why are we alone in it?

We’ve been alone before with use of AZ over 65 and that was right way to go

If it works and we avoid lockdown will you double down and still say it’s the wrong approach?

No matter what U.K. must be at bottom for some. But most will be relieved if it works out.

Loads of countries used AZ for over 65s?
MarshaBradyo · 23/11/2021 09:08

The only reason people think that the situation is worse in Europe than it has been in the UK is because of the way the media is reporting it

And the WHO highlighting the issue, Merkel and Health Minister plus more drastic actions to try and take control of it

MarshaBradyo · 23/11/2021 09:10

Loads of countries used AZ for over 65s?

We didn’t delay in same way. Around the time headlines from Germany said 8% we took earlier decision to keep going. Don’t you remember loads pausing the use?

Lilifer · 23/11/2021 09:10

@FreeBritnee

‘Brexitland MN’. Gosh this place just never fails to deliver!
Yes I agree, what a sneering condescending post that was.

I was on the Remain side myself but I can easily see and understand why people voted for Brexit and this condescending attitude towards Brexit voters smacks of elitist snobbery.

TreborBore · 23/11/2021 09:10

It’s hard to tell until we are out the other side. The health and social care services are not coping very well.

Mummyoflittledragon · 23/11/2021 09:13

I also agree with the German health minister’s comment about us all ending up vaccinated, recovered or dead. The U.K. was criticised so much for policies and I was not happy with it either. However, ultimately we have herd immunity of sorts.

Back to your point op. We won’t know for years which strategy is the best. Hindsight is such a glorious thing.

Lilifer · 23/11/2021 09:13

@User135644

Presumably if European countries are having surges in infection now, their death rate will catch up with ours.

But they are putting in mitigations in these other countries. Masks are a lot more widespread and they bring in restrictions where cases are really bad/hospitals really struggling which can nip it in the bud quicker. You get these surges with Covid.

Masks don't work.

Look at Scotland and Wales.

celan · 23/11/2021 09:13

@rrhuth

Basically this thread is 'I hope they have loads of deaths in Europe to make the UK's permanent high death numbers look less bad in comparison'.
No it isn't.

It's a thread which says, among other things, "Thank God people who rely on there not being a lockdown for the sake of their financial and mental security are likely to be reasonably secure this winter."

On a different note, there are no words to say how much I loathe the expression (which I only ever see on MN): "Wow ... just wow".

Of all the lazy tropes, this is the laziest.

Username875645 · 23/11/2021 09:13

You really think Boris had a strategy??

This is new territory for all governments.

And it’s not a competition….

Lilifer · 23/11/2021 09:18

[quote PAFMO]@Bagamoyo1

That myth has been debunked a thousand times.

Excess deaths prove it. Available for all on the ONS site.[/quote]
What do you mean the excess deaths figure proves it?

Those excess deaths are more likely to be the people who didn't get to their doctors or hospital for treatment during lockdown and died as a result (huge upsurge in excess deaths in the home during the lockdown). Excess deaths could be from numerous causes and not necessarily from covid.

MarshaBradyo · 23/11/2021 09:20

@Username875645

You really think Boris had a strategy??

This is new territory for all governments.

And it’s not a competition….

True it’s only a competition when U.K. is doing badly.

But yes the CMO did talk about this strategy

rrhuth · 23/11/2021 09:21

@Lilifer what is the covid case rate in the parallel Scotland/Wales where they don't wear masks?

RedToothBrush · 23/11/2021 09:21

@2389Champ

A note of reassurance for all those concerned about mutations.

Sars Cov 2 is a clever virus as it has a spell checker that stops mutations being released. What mutations have occured have all been changes around the spike protein. For a new mutation to take off it has to be more transmissable than the virus it is replacing. The Delta mutation is very very transmissable so mutation surplantation is unlikely, and if they do occur there is a strong likelihood the current vaccines will be protective. That doesnt mean we should not do genome testing on specimens but following the UK's lead, many countries are doing this and that is how we get the data. Uger Sahin, the brains behind the mRNA vaccine has suggested he can produce a new vaccine if necessary in a matter of weeks. So the concern about mutations is falling. Finally mutations arise from long periods of infection in one host ie in immunosuppressed people, and are not related to volume per se. So the benefits to the west from vaccinating the rest of the world relate more to economic growth from re establishing trade than preventing mutation.

Also it takes a considerable amount of time for a mutation to occur (add in a dealy for it then be detected), to when we find it of concern and then to when it actually becomes a real issue.

Delta was detected in India (which is sequencing much less than the UK) in October 2020. It peaked there in April.

We also know which parts of the genome are more problematic now, so will be able to spot dodgy looking genomes earlier. And we have better production capacity for vaccines than we did back at the start of 2020 when we had massive supply problems.

We roll out the flu vaccine annually on the basis of what happens the other side of the world six months earlier because we have the knowledge and ability to predict what is going to be the problem variant for our next winter.

Arguably we are now at the same point for covid going forward - keeping in mind that we also know that covid mutates less frequently.

In terms of mass testing to detect problem mutations its kind of pointless because the only ones we need be concerned about are the ones putting a lot of people in hospital or killing them. So as long as we monitor severe cases and any emerging new mutations causing problems, we should be ok at this point (i believe the uk tests samples from cases abroad too). The argument about testing travellers also falls down with this too. Anything thats more transmissable / severe than Delta is going to be spotted pretty damn quickly and even then we have some time to be able to react to these changes before they become too widespread. Given what we know about delta, if we do have a mutations more transmissable then trying to contain it is going to be pretty bloody useless so we have to accept that everywhere will get it as an inevitability - we can't 'keep it out'.

I was worried about mutations but where we are now (like so many other covid variables) is massively removed from where we were. Its not a concern that I think worth losing sleep over.

I am more worried about other completely novel viruses coming through instead as a bigger threat. We'd be better investing money spent on the mass sequencing assymptomatic cases and minor illness cases on more general virus research now.

Andante57 · 23/11/2021 09:25

@Kikkomam

I read the title of the thread and came to see the OP get a pasting. Remember we aren't allowed to do even a tiny bit OK in anything on Mumsnet, OP
This.

If a Labour government get in I wonder if there will be less criticism of UK on mn or whether this country will forever be a lost cause.

Dentistlakes · 23/11/2021 09:25

I don’t think it’s possible to compare. Each country is unique in terms of population and geography. There is always a trade off no matter what you do and the virus will simply change and adapt. Hopefully it will become less virulent in time but it’s unpredictable.

It’s important to take personal responsibility. Reduce our own risk in terms of staying as healthy as possible, diet, exercise and vaccination if you can. Yes, if you do all that you may still be unlucky and many have harder challenges to overcome than others. It we all do what we can then we can say we did our best to stay healthy and help leave hospital beds for those who need them.

DayKay · 23/11/2021 09:27

I do think we are doing well currently.
Uk is often criticised. The delay between the vaccines was criticised as being too long, if I recall correctly but now it seems it was a good strategy.
Opening up after most vulnerable people had vaccines was a good strategy too.
I only hope the cases stay low through the winter and after Christmas. I’d also like to see more information pushed on underlying health, importance of vitamin d and no vaccine mandates, including care staff and nhs staff. Give people the option of regular testing instead.
We still need to be proactive to keep ourselves as covid resilient as possible.

katplva · 23/11/2021 09:28

Please don’t lump ‘Europe’ in all under one umbrella. Things in Sweden are different to Greece, Ireland, Germany etc, with different national governments making different decisions according to not just national public health advice but also the prevailing culture and public viewpoints. It’s really not a case of UK vs ‘Europe’ in the death stakes.

We are all trying to live with this virus, and governments are making decisions with conflicting information, very little long term data and no crystal ball.

RedToothBrush · 23/11/2021 09:33

@TulipsGarden

The only reason people think that the situation is worse in Europe than it has been in the UK is because of the way the media is reporting it - managed by the government. We have had high levels of cases and deaths for weeks now, the NHS is seriously struggling. Other countries are tightening restrictions at a point that we've been at for some time already - it's just that Boris Johnson doesn't give a shit.
Er no.

Can you explain the comments of politicians and organisations outside of the uk being reported in Europe if there isn't an issue?

Why exactly would lockdowns be brought in, knowing that protests and riots were likely if you did, if there wasn't a problem. (The dutch have had a number of serious incidents prior to this latest announcement).

I genuinely think that if we were in the same situation and there was serious talk of another lockdown we would be looking at similar unrest and perhaps violence on a bigger scale here. Something that brings its own costs.

This isn't something dreamt up by the British media. Its something the British media will revel in, but its not made up. There really is a huge concern about what is going to happen in some parts of Europe. I saw the vaccination rate of Saxony the other day and took a deep intake of breath. It really is that scary.

The UK's problem is more our health capacity issues which are chronic. We would deal with an acute spike in cases particularly badly. Germany has the best number of beds - it has taken in patients from abroad at moments of crisis. The issue Germany is facing is that an acute spike may mean it struggles itself and that in turn has a knock on effect on its neighbours who have previously relied on it for additional capacity.

I always take whats reported on stuff like this with a pinch of salt - in this case there is a very genuine issue abroad.

PersephoneJames · 23/11/2021 09:34

Theres a lot of misinformation with readily available information on this thread.

  • the UK is not the only place with a national health service
  • Austria tests more per population than the UK according to worldometers
  • we’re about in the middle in terms of fully vaxxed

My view is that there aren’t strategies as such - our leaders and experts have to react to the situation in front of them and balance saving lives, economic ability, education disruption etc - and every individual has a different line in the sand. As the situations vary, the response will vary, nobody “wins”

It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all
DerTrotzkopf · 23/11/2021 09:34

People don't hate the UK which is after all their homeland. They don't revel in it failing. How ludicrous.
What they find frustrating is how a totally inept government which has failed at everything plays the populist card again and again, trumpeting our world beating achievements as if it they had anything to do with them. They know it appeals to a certain section of the population, it works every time.

FreeBritnee · 23/11/2021 09:34

As this is primarily a UK board we are going to hear more negative UK feeling as so many of us living here are feeling pretty jaded and in some cases, furious! I’m sure if we were posting on a GermanAustrian forum right now we’d be hearing a lot of anti German/Austrian sentiment. We know the people aren’t happy as they are rioting. Setting fire to shit in the street is a sure fire way to demonstrate your dislike for something.

MarshaBradyo · 23/11/2021 09:36

@DerTrotzkopf

People don't hate the UK which is after all their homeland. They don't revel in it failing. How ludicrous. What they find frustrating is how a totally inept government which has failed at everything plays the populist card again and again, trumpeting our world beating achievements as if it they had anything to do with them. They know it appeals to a certain section of the population, it works every time.
The anti U.K. rhetoric is extreme

Not irl you’re right but on mn it has become more evident over last year or so.