It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

It was on balance the right decision based on the information available at the time.

And even with the current increase in cases the number of hospitalisations and deaths is nowhere near what it was this time last year

@AlecTrevelyan006

It was on balance the right decision based on the information available at the time.

And even with the current increase in cases the number of hospitalisations and deaths is nowhere near what it was this time last year

How did allowing another roughly 4 million cases, 100,000 hospital admissions, and 20,000 deaths help?

How was it meant to help?

It seems that vaccination plus previous infection might stand up really well against Omicron in which case the immunity that exists in the population as a result of the Delta wave might ultimately benefit the population as a whole.

We just don't know yet, it's too early to know anything definitively

@Sunshinegirl82

I still support it as a logical choice. You might think you would have made a different choice but that does render the choice that was made wrong or illogical.

If/when the new variant becomes dominant here we'll see what the impact of that choice is, it's still to early to know anything for definite.

Excellent.

What was the logic?

How does 4 million cases, 100,000 admissions, and 20,000 deaths help?

How was it expected to help?

I’d see it that restrictions should be an absolute last resort not a status quo “just in case”. If we’d had enough restrictions to significantly reduce cases since July it would have been hugely expensive, people would be very fed up with it and there is no reason to think that high case numbers months ago affect case numbers now (other than higher levels of immunity in the population).

@Chessie678

I’d see it that restrictions should be an absolute last resort not a status quo “just in case”. If we’d had enough restrictions to significantly reduce cases since July it would have been hugely expensive, people would be very fed up with it and there is no reason to think that high case numbers months ago affect case numbers now (other than higher levels of immunity in the population).

But wasn't that the whole premise?

That we were going to have the wave in the summer rather than the winter?

"They have not been without a cost. But the summer/autumn wave of breakthrough infections in the UK may prove quite helpful against Omicron!"

• Oliver Barnes, the FT

twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1468677653435760648

I think the logic was if there were a load of infections over the summer, natural immunity (in the unvaccinated) would boost vaccine immunity in the population, making us more resistant by the winter.

It was like the "flattening the curve" of the first wave, except the other way round: an attempt to bring the hospitalisations (and infections and deaths) forward to keep them at a level the NHS could just about cope with i.e. pushing the curve up over the summer, and hoping for a fall in winter.

It has come at quite a considerable cost, and an awful possibility with Omicron is it looks like prior infection and even vaccination don't confer nearly as much immunity as with Delta, meaning that we're not getting nearly as much benefit as thought from the high level of cases (and resulting hospitalisations, long-term illness and deaths) over the summer.

@Tupla

I think the logic was if there were a load of infections over the summer, natural immunity (in the unvaccinated) would boost vaccine immunity in the population, making us more resistant by the winter.

It was like the "flattening the curve" of the first wave, except the other way round: an attempt to bring the hospitalisations (and infections and deaths) forward to keep them at a level the NHS could just about cope with i.e. pushing the curve up over the summer, and hoping for a fall in winter.

It has come at quite a considerable cost, and an awful possibility with Omicron is it looks like prior infection and even vaccination don't confer nearly as much immunity as with Delta, meaning that we're not getting nearly as much benefit as thought from the high level of cases (and resulting hospitalisations, long-term illness and deaths) over the summer.

Which is why most other countries didn't take this approach.

If you're not doing what most other people are doing, it's highly unlikely you're some kind of genius who knows something they don't. Far more likely everyone else considered this plan and dismissed it.

Time will tell, I guess.