It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

Don't say that OP.

Most mumsnetters are not happy unless we are worst country in the world with the most deaths. Then they can blame it on Brexit and Tory Scum.

It depends on what your yardstick is.

Is it deaths / 100000 people?

Is it excess postponed surgeries ?

Is it a trade-off between health and economic activity?

Etc

Masks haven't prevented the increase in cases in some of the countries with surges now. Fundamentally though we won't know who's done ok for another couple of years. This winter is the crunch point really.
I work in a hospital and from a Covid point of view our beds are at the lowest they've been for some months, which is not a bad position to go in to December. But who knows what's next.

There are concerning brain studies, yes, but obviously the impacts won't be fully known for fifty years.

I guess there is 'no evidence' if you want to discount early studies.

My view is there are early studies suggesting concerning brain impacts.

By more widespread - clearly the UK allowed wider infection of children than other European countries.

@NynaeveSedai

There is no way to know who got it right yet. Sweden with minimal restrictions? Australia with quarantine hotels? New Zealand with zero covid strategy? The US which is a free for all? The U.K.? Germany? There have been many approaches and we won't know what worked best for years. What is clear is that very little of the success we may have will been because of a planned and considered strategy. It will mostly be by mistake, with the exception of the initial vaccine rollout.

Releasing the restrictions in July WAS a planned and considered strategy. Not some random idea plucked out of the ether. We were literally told it’s better to get cases high now before the winter. Boris literally said if not now, then when? People have short memories And the booster program isn’t random either, it’s the NHS stepping up again. We had massive queues in our hospital today, mostly booster people. It’s good planning not luck.

@Whinge

The game hasn't finished yet. We don't know what the figures will be. The wave in Europe has literally just started.

Game?

We're talking about people dying, who may not have done so had we acted differently, and you use the word game.

Yes, this attitude that it doesn't matter how many British people are harmed so long as Europe loses 'the game' is pretty grim. But widespread. Certainly in government.

@CrunchyCarrot

Honestly I think we can't say that with any certainty until we are looking back on this in a few years' time.

Agree. At various points over the last two years it's looked like X's strategy is 'better' only for fortunes to turn and suddenly X is doing badly but Y is doing better.

It won't be clear until we're well out the other side of this, I think.

The UK got pretty much everything wrong in 2020 (barring securing vaccines).

No real complaints in 2021. Let's see how we navigate winter though. December-February is the challenge.

I read the title of the thread and came to see the OP get a pasting. Remember we aren't allowed to do even a tiny bit OK in anything on Mumsnet, OP

Since the beginning there have been periods where our rates have fallen and Europe’s have risen, and time when their numbers have dropped and ours were rising.
I’m generally not particularly negative around covid, and supported easing the lockdown when we did, but it seems odd to take one point in time when Europe’s cases are rising and ours aren’t and declare that we had a better strategy. Give it a month or two and it could look totally different - I’m not saying it will, just that while it’s ongoing it’s a bit premature to say our strategy has worked.
And as people have said, how do you define a better strategy anyway.

@Whinge

The game hasn't finished yet. We don't know what the figures will be. The wave in Europe has literally just started.

Game?

We're talking about people dying, who may not have done so had we acted differently, and you use the word game.

Classic mumsnet response.

Nothing worthwhile to say but pounce on one word that I used.

We were right IMO to open up the way we did in July. It was the right time to do it and people need their lives back.

The question is whether we can keep things as they are now through winter and how we deal with the pressure on the hospitals.

We've had the highest cases in Europe the last two days, so we're hardly Covid free, are we, as we start to really enter our winter/cold snap? We've had a mild November up to now.

@rrhuth

Basically this thread is 'I hope they have loads of deaths in Europe to make the UK's permanent high death numbers look less bad in comparison'.

Yep. In any case, we shall see. Many European countries remain in a far better position than the UK. Though, of course on Brexitland MN, "Europe" is one place. Like the situation in Romania is the same as Portugal.

@herecomesthsun

From the article - "Dr Chapman also points out this has come at a price - the high rates of infection have resulted in a greater amount of serious illness and death in recent months than many of our Western European neighbours."

We have had literally thousands of unnecessary deaths since July.

On the other hand, yes, it's a good idea for vulnerable people to have boosters (which is why we are in a relatively better position this autumn)

Presumably if European countries are having surges in infection now, their death rate will catch up with ours.

@MrsLargeEmbodied

they have a slight rise in south korea and the children are back to home learning, masks all the time, even outdoors.

Oh the utopia that was ‘home learning’. How I miss those halcyon days.

@romanroy

Can something be called the right call if the cost for making that call was between 45-82% more deaths per capita

The game hasn't finished yet. We don't know what the figures will be. The wave in Europe has literally just started.

Several things here.

The game
Wow... just wow.

We don't know what the figures will be.
No, but we can make reasonable predictions based on the data we have. For example, there's talk of rising rates in Germany but their current daily death rate per capita is broadly equal to our current one despite having a significantly lower total death rate.

The wave
No. A wave. These countries experienced difficulties when we did; they just chose to do something about it. The "waves" we've experienced didn't just happen to us. They happened as they did because we chose to let them.

I really hope so but yes it could be

I haven't seen reports of people dying in ambulances from heart attacks and strokes in western Europe.

So maybe that bit of the UK 'strategy' (lmao at the idea there's a strategy tbh) needs work?

Basically this thread is 'I hope they have loads of deaths in Europe to make the UK's permanent high death numbers look less bad in comparison

What a mean thing to say. Have you read the BBC article? It is cautiously positive about the next couple of months in the UK, which is good news.

‘Brexitland MN’. Gosh this place just never fails to deliver!

@User135644

We were right IMO to open up the way we did in July. It was the right time to do it and people need their lives back.

The question is whether we can keep things as they are now through winter and how we deal with the pressure on the hospitals.

We've had the highest cases in Europe the last two days, so we're hardly Covid free, are we, as we start to really enter our winter/cold snap? We've had a mild November up to now.

Have a look at the testing rate in the UK compared to other countries. We test way more asymptomatic people, so inevitably we pick up more positive results.

@MrsLargeEmbodied

they have a slight rise in south korea and the children are back to home learning, masks all the time, even outdoors.

Do you see this as good?

Presumably if European countries are having surges in infection now, their death rate will catch up with ours.

I won’t pretend to know the various vaccine rates across Europe but I’d guess the prediction would be that their death rate won’t, because they will have higher rates of infection at a time when they’ve got higher rates of vaccination?

@Bagamoyo1 most western European countries are putting mitigations in place.

UK has had 1000 deaths per week for a long time now. And ignored it.

@rrhuth

I haven't seen reports of people dying in ambulances from heart attacks and strokes in western Europe.

So maybe that bit of the UK 'strategy' (lmao at the idea there's a strategy tbh) needs work?

I’m guessing that’s because they don’t have a fully state funded NHS. If you’re happy to pay for your heart attack and stroke treatment, you won’t be queueing up outside A&E either .