It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

Since the pandemic outbreak, the UK has been the worst affected country in Europe with over 9.5 million cases as of November 14.

According to the chart in this link, we're still worse than Germany. The fact that they're taking action as their case numbers are going up shows that they're doing what they can to avoid getting as bad as us. They might fail but at least they're trying.

@DrMaryMalone it will happen one day how long can we live like this realistically , the cost of tests , the fact that people will get fed up taking them
I personally took about 4 in space of 4 months , not once was it covid but had symptoms
One day it will be ranpdown i expect I can't see how it can't be
When that will be who knows

@DrMaryMalone

What do you think public opinion would be on so called Operation Rampdown reported in the press recently? Reducing and eventually removing free to access testing, ending isolation periods, closing contact tracing etc.

It's reporting things speculated for 2022 right?

I think if we get through to Christmas and numbers look reasonable, most people will be happy with a rampdown.

The UK's new Covid exit strategy set out in a Whitehall plan has been leaked to a national newspaper
Do wish this endless "leaking" would stop though.

@Tealightsandd compare how many tests we have done to others and that explains it also and per capita we arent at all

But anyway. Forget Europe. Look East.

@Tealightsandd you totally fail to dee how figures can be manipulated and how taking one figure alone without taking other factors into account is not a true representation

@Tealightsandd how would you police and enforce this proper wearing of closely fitting FFP2 masks which are not touched and used once?

People have gone on for ages about how mask wearing can reduce spread. At first it was "oh any face covering will do". Then it was, surgical masks make a difference, not cloth masks, and you have to have a fresh one every time and you mustn't touch it. Then it was proper masks worn properly and they must be the special sort Germans wear. And now it's, oh they might make some difference - we're not sure how much - if they're worn alongside an effective vaccine programme.

@Tealightsandd no you can't forget europe thats who we are closest to
You cannot compare us to the east or new zealand if you don't know that by now
We are closely aligned to europe its like because of brexit people think we are no longer part of europe and have no ties
What happens here and in europe does ad will affect us

There is also evidence that masks can actually propel the virus through gaps in sides.

Also how many people sanitise their hands before and after taking their masks off?

@Tealightsandd if we had taken new zealand approach how would we cope we are a travel hub always have been
New zealand are not
We receive large amounts of goods daily by road from europe , we couldn't airfreight it all in
We were never keeping it out like they did for so long , its very very different
The east is a very different culture
Europe had large numbers before it was even realised when the WHO who you trust so much said not to impose travel bans , although some countries did

[quote worriedatthemoment]@Tealightsandd compare how many tests we have done to others and that explains it also and per capita we arent at all [/quote]
Well given the lab cockups we had with our tests a month or so back, plus the fact that tests aren't completely accurate - PCRs used to be around a 30% false negative rate, but some experts believe this might be higher now with new mutations.

Nope, better to look at hospitalisations and deaths. Including excess deaths - both because of the indirect effect of delays to non COVID treatment due to full hospitals (and dead or long term sick staff) but also because many COVID patients die after 28 days.

I suspect the studies indicating higher reduction rates were based on the FFP2 or 3 masks.

The criticism of the studies that came up with the 53% figure is that they aren't randomised controlled studies. So the reduction figure they came up with is actually the impact of some combination of a number of measures, one of which is masks. Because people wearing masks regularly are very likely to also be doing one or more other mitigations like social distancing, avoiding risky situations etc.

This is evident in the reporting in the Guardian article that handwashing also reduces transmission by 53%. Which seems...odd when the virus is mainly spread by droplet and airborne transmission. Until you consider that, again, people who are scrupulous about handwashing lots are probably also taking other mitigation actions and so the 53% is an estimate of the effect of all these actions combined.

The 10% comes from studies looking at mask wearing on its own and keeping all other variables constant.

not necessarily basic common sense and most don't wear properly , change them enough etc plus you will always have some who Cannot wear them

Of course, you have data to back that up?

I love how people are arguing about the efficacy. The fact is, they prevent deaths. Even if that number is one, wouldn’t you do it?

[quote worriedatthemoment]@Tealightsandd if we had taken new zealand approach how would we cope we are a travel hub always have been
New zealand are not
We receive large amounts of goods daily by road from europe , we couldn't airfreight it all in
We were never keeping it out like they did for so long , its very very different
The east is a very different culture
Europe had large numbers before it was even realised when the WHO who you trust so much said not to impose travel bans , although some countries did [/quote]
Excuses excuses excuses.

British exceptionalism. Ugh!

'The East' is not one homogenous culture.

Different countries, different politics, different cultures. One shared culture perhaps. A highly desirable one. Civic mindedness.

Plenty of East Asian countries have land borders. Freight arrived and left just fine. As did people in some instances (albeit with real quarantine).

Right now there's a reasonable amount of international travel going on. Admittedly some places, including Qatar and Morocco, have high risk countries like the UK on their red lists but that's just common sense.

if we had taken new zealand approach how would we cope we are a travel hub always have been

This kind of binary argument is so bogus. You think New Zealand doesn’t have food and goods imported?

It wasn’t about stopping all travel, it was about stopping unnecessary travel AND quarantining or testing those who needed to travel. We could have reduced a whole load of travel a whole lot sooner than we did and that would have helped.

Jeez... former resident of the UK here, now in Belgium. It's not a fecking race.

I follow the covid news in several European countries and nowhere else is there the same obsession as in the UK with 'beating' other countries at this, that or the other in relation to covid. 'World-beating', my ass. It's an inane thing to even think about in these times. Pack it in.

And btw: continental countries opened up later and are having their wave later. There isn't even much difference in 'strategy', or indeed outcomes, only in presentation.

What definitely isn't the case though is that the UK is doing better than here in terms of mortality or strain on the health system. Just look at the damn statistics.

I remember people going on about NZ Singapore etc living in some Covid free travel bubble

Not sure why just seeing arguments again reminded me

It didn’t happen though

Anyway yes of course most reasonable people will look to comparable countries

@MarshaBradyo

Germany has a relatively low vaccine take-up rate.

It’s the same as here

Cases are rising more quickly than here which is the concern as you need to slow it down. Most people really do not want lockdown, as Austria has had to do.

according to the FT graphics cited on here today, Germany's vaccine take up in a bit below ours - and vi is their overall low immunity level that is the main problem

But actually when I say look East, it's about more than the pandemic.

The future - best quality of life, economic success, world influence, the place to be, is in the Asia Pacific.

The handling of the pandemic tells a bigger story.

@ThreeLocusts

Jeez... former resident of the UK here, now in Belgium. It's not a fecking race.

I follow the covid news in several European countries and nowhere else is there the same obsession as in the UK with 'beating' other countries at this, that or the other in relation to covid. 'World-beating', my ass. It's an inane thing to even think about in these times. Pack it in.

And btw: continental countries opened up later and are having their wave later. There isn't even much difference in 'strategy', or indeed outcomes, only in presentation.

What definitely isn't the case though is that the UK is doing better than here in terms of mortality or strain on the health system. Just look at the damn statistics.

People do get cross like this but really people in U.K. do not need to ‘beat’ other countries

We mostly want to avoid lockdown

Oh and stop the endless criticism too would be nice

What definitely isn't the case though is that the UK is doing better than here in terms of mortality or strain on the health system. Just look at the damn statistics.

Actually, the damn statistics say Belgium and the UK have around the same number of cases per capita, but Belgium does a lot fewer tests and has a higher death rate. So I’m not quite sure what your point is. It’s not a competition so don’t make it one.

I think the competitive idea derives from the OP which links an article about "a Europe-style return to lockdown" and suggests in the thread title "the-u-k-may-have-a-better-covid-strategy-after-all".

But yes, it would be great if we could avoid lockdown and even better if there was no concern that lockdown might be needed. Better still if that were the case in other nations too.

We mostly want to avoid lockdown

Some of us also want/ed to avoid hundreds of thousands of avoidable deaths (including the non COVID patients unable to access prompt care due to full hospitals and dead or sick staff), plus many more long term Long COVID disabled.

Rather than lockdown, first choice of course being the WHO advice of Vaccine Plus mitigations. Including amongst other things, masks. Tesco is right that every little helps.

World beating. Yeah that's a load a crap. It really shouldn't be seen as a race. It's a global pandemic. The world should be working together - including taking heed of examples of good practice from other countries.

(Ideally it would also mean temporary vaccine patent waiver but that seems to be dead in the water?).

Anyway. I should go to bed. Sleep is good for the immune system.

I'll end the night with a bit of positivity for the UK.

I'm grateful for our vaccine rollout including the boosters). We can give ourselves (particularly our NHS and those involved in the rollout including volunteers) a well done there.

It's definitely helped. Our ICUs are largely full of the unvaccinated. Vaccines aren't miracles but they do help. A lot.

Goodnight all.

@Tealightsandd
Like China? The last story I read about China was about the Chinese government harvesting organs from living “donors” in prison camps (primarily from ethnic minority groups). Dread to think how they actually suppressed covid.

I’d take human rights over civic mindedness any day.

John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch
So to conclude (1/2)
• UK’s July reopening likely generated enough infection-acquired immunity to shield it from continent’s winter wave
• But that came at a cost of thousands of deaths, far higher rate than peer countries [so far]
• Boosters also key to UK’s current successes

(2/2)
• If western European countries can accelerate booster rollout they can blunt the wave, esp in terms of hospitalisations & deaths
• But some, like Austria, are hamstrung by low uptake of the primary course. You can’t boosted the unvaxxed, and Austria has a lot of them.

Agree with this.