It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

70 individual studies from around the world. All debunked?

Do you have a link please?

@Tealightsandd

70 individual studies from around the world. All debunked?

Do you have a link please?

The NI authorities need to know if all those studies have been debunked. The link I posted comes from their official COVID info - published only yesterday.

Do you have the link please?

Yes - here is probably the best summary of (1) why the Guardian headline is entirely misleading and (2) why only very few of the 70 studies actually matter (1, in fact):

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1461325657653317640

It is very disappointing if the NI authorities amplify poor messaging of the media.

I think I'll trust the analysis of the doctors and scientists (including those at the WHO) over a FT journalist.

Clearly the NI government shares my view.

This has been debunked already.

70 individual studies from around the world. All debunked?

@MarshaBradyo @Tealightsandd

No, not debunked. Poor reporting by the media and then confusion from everyone else.

When you do a systematic review and meta-analysis you idenitfy all studies and pool them if possible. You then conduct sensitivity analyses which include evaluating the risk of bias (or level of quality) of each individual study, and see what happens when you exclude low and mid quality studies.

The 53% estimate reported is from the crude analyses. This is reduced down to 10% (from memory) when only including high quality studies - which as noted, is still a good, worthwhile reduction in transmission.

It's also interesting to note that many individual studies on all things COVID related (the HCQ, ivermectin, vit D literature springs to mind) are extremely low quality and high risk of bias, but hasn't been picked up on.

When a study spreads across social media etc, it's very very hard to convince people why the effect estimates are not robust. Even when it's retracted the figures still hang around and are quoted forevermore.

Remember reduction of transmission and infection risk (be it masks or vaccines or anything else) is relevant both for the mask wearer and for others around them - including vulnerable people like the immunocompromised.

@wintertravel1980

Do you have the link please?

Yes - here is probably the best summary of (1) why the Guardian headline is entirely misleading and (2) why only very few of the 70 studies actually matter (1, in fact):

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1461325657653317640

It is very disappointing if the NI authorities amplify poor messaging of the media.

His final tweet is a good summary of the situation:

John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
·
Nov 18
To conclude
• Based on best evidence, masks cut incidence by ~10% White heavy check mark
• So masks are a good, low-cost measure to use on top of vaccines White heavy check mark
• If you care about finding the most effective interventions, don’t share obviously misleading numbers based on "very low quality" evidence

@Tealightsandd

I think I'll trust the analysis of the doctors and scientists (including those at the WHO) over a FT journalist.

Clearly the NI government shares my view.

The BMJ did an analysis which was linked to in the FT thread.

www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2729

The 53% estimate reported is from the crude analyses. This is reduced down to 10%

Yes this is a big difference

Tbh I didn’t really get into it and do wear a mask on PT so I’m not that faxed by masks even though I think they have become over discussed compared to say immunity

Talking of reduction of risk.

www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-unvaccinated-have-14-times-greater-risk-of-covid-death/

Well.. this particular FT journalist has been providing ongoing brilliant analysis throughout the pandemic so I would take his opinion seriously. He is also explaining well why only one trial matters.

I am not sure the government endorsement counts for much:).

@wintertravel1980

Well.. this particular FT journalist has been providing ongoing brilliant analysis throughout the pandemic so I would take his opinion seriously. He is also explaining well why only one trial matters.

I am not sure the government endorsement counts for much:).

Yeah, I can't be the only one who giggled at the NI government shares my view bit...

Also, Richard Pengelly is a penis.

@Tealightsandd hour still comparing places so far away and nit affected the same in the beginning ti Europe
Like apple and pears however you look at it

@Tealightsandd so geemany have strict mask wearing and better ones at that
Yet i doesn't seem to if stopped them reaching numbers similar to ask ?
Why if the masks work so well
Many places masks are still used in uk no hospital or dr surgery lets you in without one and many work places continue there use

Basic common sense says a good mask (worn properly) reduces the risks of an airborne disease. I suspect the studies indicating higher reduction rates were based on the FFP2 or 3 masks.

But of course masks alone aren't enough. I'm will the WHO on Vaccine/Mask plus policies.

@Tealightsandd

Basic common sense says a good mask (worn properly) reduces the risks of an airborne disease. I suspect the studies indicating higher reduction rates were based on the FFP2 or 3 masks.

But of course masks alone aren't enough. I'm will the WHO on Vaccine/Mask plus policies.

The high quality RCT referenced above which demonstrated ~10% reduction used surgical face masks, which is reassuring :)

@Tealightsandd not necessarily basic common sense and most don't wear properly , change them enough etc plus you will always have some who Cannot wear them
Personally I still wear one inside supermarkets , crowded indoor spaces but iI don't think that makes me dafe despite also being double jabbed
I think this virus is unpredictable and we still have a lot to learn

@Tealightsandd

Basic common sense says a good mask (worn properly) reduces the risks of an airborne disease. I suspect the studies indicating higher reduction rates were based on the FFP2 or 3 masks.

But of course masks alone aren't enough. I'm will the WHO on Vaccine/Mask plus policies.

How will you make people wear these if it's failed in Germany?

How will you make people wear these if it's failed in Germany?

Surgical face masks make a difference. Of course you can't make people wear them, but we could be doing a lot more to encourage them where they'd be useful (i.e., crowded, unventilated spaces).

[quote worriedatthemoment]@Tealightsandd so geemany have strict mask wearing and better ones at that
Yet i doesn't seem to if stopped them reaching numbers similar to ask ?
Why if the masks work so well
Many places masks are still used in uk no hospital or dr surgery lets you in without one and many work places continue there use [/quote]
Like the WHO says. Just like Vaccine Plus. It's about Mask Plus.

Germany has a relatively low vaccine take-up rate. They also have a lower number of deaths than us. Their 'soaring' cases are coming from a much lower number than us. Because, unlike is, they weren't contently accepting 1000s dead a week over the past couple of months.

Also, how the masks are put on, worn, and taken on (eg. Not kept unwrapped in a dirty coat or trouser pocket, bunged on outside a shop with unwashed hands) makes a difference.

What do you think public opinion would be on so called Operation Rampdown reported in the press recently? Reducing and eventually removing free to access testing, ending isolation periods, closing contact tracing etc.

a good mask, worn properly

For the most part, that doesn’t happen. I’ve worked as a theatre nurse and the way most people carry on with their face coverings turns my stomach.

But doesn't that 10% refer to FFP2 and 3 masks?

Which have been mandated on, for example, German public transport?

@ollyollyoxenfree the guidelines say this though exactly when they should be worm
Maybe physchologists know when people have reached a limit etc and when people will stop listening , some break from them and then going back if needed may be more tolerated ?
My ds college still have to wear them when moving around etc and he says most do

Germany has a relatively low vaccine take-up rate.

It’s the same as here

Cases are rising more quickly than here which is the concern as you need to slow it down. Most people really do not want lockdown, as Austria has had to do.