It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

@MarshaBradyo apart from Austria no other European country is in a full lockdown. Yes English cases spiked earlier but what on earth makes anyone think that England has been exceptional in all this. I mean come on, can we all not see the absolute mess the country is in at the moment ?

@julieca

Currently cases in the UK are going up. Deaths and hospitalisation s are not as they lag by 3-4 weeks. They reflect the lower cases we were having a few weeks ago. According to that trend, cases and hospitalisations will rise again in a few weeks time.

It's been modelled and reported that the trend will continue downwards because infections amongst the most vulnerable are not going up.

@Pinkpeanut27

I would like to think that the place we are in is by design rather than lucky fluke !

We hear that extending the time between covid jabs gives better protection - lucky because I feel they lengthened it to get as many people 1 jab as possible.
That we are protecting the older population by giving AZ vaccine due to possible increased T cell production , again we jabbed with what we had .
Then they say an early winter peak was a good idea . Maybe we will be better off overall but maybe there will be a mutation and we will get another peak ( don’t know if we are on4/5 or 6) although it’s never a goid idea to have deaths .

It feels to me as it it’s all a bit shambolic and we are getting a few lucky breaks .

Some design (very intelligent planning and fantastic research) and some luck (some pieces of fantastic luck, at least I hope we will be that lucky)

But then medical science can be like that, penicillin, which has saved many millions of lives, including, indirectly mine, came about from a chance, brilliant scientific observation in a messy lab.

The US isn't all a free for all. My son lives near Seattle and I'm out now visiting. I had to prove my vaccine status and proof of a negative covid test . They wouldn't accept home testing and I had to go to a clinic and get a certificate. In this part of Washington , fast food is eat out only and we have to wear masks absolutely everywhere , even in restaurants and until seated at your table. Have to wear them in shops , transportation.

[quote merrygoround51]@MarshaBradyo apart from Austria no other European country is in a full lockdown. Yes English cases spiked earlier but what on earth makes anyone think that England has been exceptional in all this. I mean come on, can we all not see the absolute mess the country is in at the moment ?[/quote]
We’re discussing the approach of a summer peak to avoid a winter one

Germany is also discussing options around stricter restrictions atm as cases are rising quickly

If you care about avoiding restrictions, which I do, I will be relieved if the summer peak means we don’t see the same.

Re the downward trend for deaths, giving new meds like molnupiravir (?sp) to the most vulnerable patients can potentially halve the risk of death - so that will certainly help, on top of everything else.

And that was exactly the plan. We were told that. Spread the cases out in the summer to avoid an autumn peak.

We can't lockdown to mitigate the effects of other lockdowns. That would be an endless trap and lockdowns should be a very last resort, not the go to option as many on here seem to have come to believe.

@Bellee11

That's because vulnerable have already died of it and most people have caught it. Our rates have been high for months, the fact that we are not seeing the peak Europe is is absolutely nothing to brag about when you compare our overall deaths.

I don't think it's bragging, it's feeling cautiously optimistic and reassured that we're in a stronger position than we could be.

As for overall deaths, sadly I expect a few more countries will end up at a similar level to us. We are currently 19th out of 47 European countries for deaths per million population. Certainly not the most successful in saving people, but also far from the worst.

Who knows. But tbh I’m not sure what else people are going to do in the long term than the strategy we have. The majority are double vaccinated. The virus isn’t going anywhere. What else is to be done, I think lots of the things, lock downs etc are pointless now, just delaying further infection, what difference does being infected now or next year make except to make sure healthcare systems can cope.

However the knock on effects of a lot of these provisions on the mental and physical health of the population and on the economy needs to have greater weight.

I am finding this so interesting.

Does anyone know if (reliable) data sources are available for breakdowns of those in hospital with Covid? - so the proportion unvaccinated, by age etc?

Apologies if missed it upthread.

@herecomesthsun

Re the downward trend for deaths, giving new meds like molnupiravir (?sp) to the most vulnerable patients can potentially halve the risk of death - so that will certainly help, on top of everything else.

The downward trend for deaths fits neatly into the downward trend of cases a few weeks back. You have to look at how there is a 3-4 week delay from someone testing positive, to being hospitalised and dying. So if cases drop, then about 3-4 weeks later deaths drop. Cases are going back up now. Deaths will go back up ina few weeks time.

The downward trend for deaths fits neatly into the downward trend of cases a few weeks back.
You have to look at how there is a 3-4 week delay from someone testing positive, to being hospitalised and dying. So if cases drop, then about 3-4 weeks later deaths drop. Cases are going back up now. Deaths will go back up ina few weeks time.

Age group for the cases needs to be factored in.

@MarshaBradyo

*The downward trend for deaths fits neatly into the downward trend of cases a few weeks back. You have to look at how there is a 3-4 week delay from someone testing positive, to being hospitalised and dying. So if cases drop, then about 3-4 weeks later deaths drop. Cases are going back up now. Deaths will go back up ina few weeks time.*

Age group for the cases needs to be factored in.

@julieca why are you ignoring the current infection numbers and the hospital admission numbers of the over 70s and other vulnerable groups?

It really is a bit more complex than what you're saying.

I'm in south Germany. We've had almost no easing of restrictions since coming out of lockdown - compulsory surgical masks everywhere (including all children in schools), social distancing, 3x a week mandatory testing for school children, events cancelled etc etc....and we are still in absolute fucking shit.
I was in the UK over summer - it was like a different world - and you are honestly no worse off than us now, on the contrary, you're once again ahead on vaccinations (boosters) and the UK hospital admissions and deaths are comparable if not better than ours.

We are now entering winter and have gone into Alert Level 2, which (apart from being fucking complicated to understand) involves banning unvaccinated people from everything except essentials, but also includes vaccinated people having to test in certain circumstances (eg cinema). You also have to test to go to work, if you're unvaccinated. And in this case testing doesn't mean kits at home - only official tests done at official testing stations count. Some things you need LFTs for (free again after they made them pay-for in October), but some are PCR only and you have to pay for that yourself. Almost all the Christmas markets have cancelled at the last minute, despite having really comprehensive hygiene plans in place.

I honestly can't see how our situation is in any way better than in the UK right now.

@RedToothBrush

Pregnant women have also made up a sizeable % of patients ending up in hospital in the first place.

~28% of women aged 16-49 who were admitted to icu were pregnant or recently pregnant.

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/913f4820-704c-ec11-9139-00505601089b

@rrhuth

I guess if you think high deaths are a good idea, yes.

The UK could have chosen to limit deaths and NHS pressure by e.g. keeping masks but Johnson was happy with 1000 deaths per week.

I think the neurological impacts on young people will also be far more widespread in the UK.

This ^ is unfortunately our reality.

@LeaveYourHatOn

I'm in south Germany. We've had almost no easing of restrictions since coming out of lockdown - compulsory surgical masks everywhere (including all children in schools), social distancing, 3x a week mandatory testing for school children, events cancelled etc etc....and we are still in absolute fucking shit. I was in the UK over summer - it was like a different world - and you are honestly no worse off than us now, on the contrary, you're once again ahead on vaccinations (boosters) and the UK hospital admissions and deaths are comparable if not better than ours.

We are now entering winter and have gone into Alert Level 2, which (apart from being fucking complicated to understand) involves banning unvaccinated people from everything except essentials, but also includes vaccinated people having to test in certain circumstances (eg cinema). You also have to test to go to work, if you're unvaccinated. And in this case testing doesn't mean kits at home - only official tests done at official testing stations count. Some things you need LFTs for (free again after they made them pay-for in October), but some are PCR only and you have to pay for that yourself. Almost all the Christmas markets have cancelled at the last minute, despite having really comprehensive hygiene plans in place.

I honestly can't see how our situation is in any way better than in the UK right now.

This really does sound shit 😥

DP has been unable to get out to see his elderly parents in your area for nearly two years now.

It's a mess.

We are currently 19th out of 47 European countries for deaths per million population. Certainly not the most successful in saving people, but also far from the worst.

Id be careful comparing like for like.
When countries are small (like it is often the case for eatern counties or belgium), just a small difference in number of cases/deaths can make the number of cases per 100.000 explode.
Im pretty sure the advice is to compare only countries that have at least 20 millions inhabitants because of that.

Tbh I was in france when they introduced the covi passport. It's quick to use, not muhc effort. I'm struggling to see where the issue is (apart from the fact that it sort of forces people to get vaccinated which can be discussed on an ethical pov)

Same with masks. I personally always have one on. I can't see the issue. They are not that much of problem.

@HesterShaw1
I'm so sorry. It's been shit. I feel so so lucky that I was able to get back to the UK in the summer to see family.

@PerfectlyUnsuitable The CovPass is no trouble at all. Neither is wearing a mask to pop into the shops or whatever.
Wearing a mask all day is bloody awful. My 6yo, who just started school in September, has to wear one the entire time in class. The only exception is during break if they go outside.
My DH has to wear one all day at work.
It impairs communication, understanding and social interaction. Not forgetting that you're at least 1.5m away from the next person at all times anyway.

I hadn't realised just how depressing it was until I was in the UK where there weren't any of these restrictions. I felt liberated.

@HesterShaw1

And that was exactly the plan. We were told that. Spread the cases out in the summer to avoid an autumn peak.

We can't lockdown to mitigate the effects of other lockdowns. That would be an endless trap and lockdowns should be a very last resort, not the go to option as many on here seem to have come to believe.

Which delivers better political optics, but means very high numbers of dead bodies and sustained NHS pressures.

The needs of the Tory government took precedence over the needs of the population. As ever.

took precedence over the needs of the population

No because most of the population do not want increased restrictions.

@PerfectlyUnsuitable

We are currently 19th out of 47 European countries for deaths per million population. Certainly not the most successful in saving people, but also far from the worst.

Id be careful comparing like for like.
When countries are small (like it is often the case for eatern counties or belgium), just a small difference in number of cases/deaths can make the number of cases per 100.000 explode.
Im pretty sure the advice is to compare only countries that have at least 20 millions inhabitants because of that.

I would go further and look at population density, and as the U.K. has a higher population density than most of those 19 countries, I’m comfortable it’s a reasonable comparison.

@LeaveYourHatOn sad to hear the situation where you are, stay strong and hold tight. Here’s a cuppa for you

I agree.