It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

@MarshaBradyo

Not - nor

You don't actually hear her getting credit very often though. She did an amazing job. I think she did it for free as well.

@HesterShaw1

Can I just say, in a revolting fangirl way, you do some awesome work on this board *@RedToothBrush* :o

Seconded.

If the London school of hygiene and tropical medicine is right, then you have to argue that renewing restrictions pose a far greater threat from indirect deaths at this point.

I am expecting a lot of nervousness about rising cases in the uk in the next couple of weeks and i do think it likely they will.

I think we have to have steady nerves though.

The blunt truth is you can't hide from Delta.

On the BBC politics programme this morning there was a reference to 600,000 AZ doses being destroyed as they were out of date. I was trying to book a PCR for GS (nightmare as I'm nearly 70, husband mid 70s and disabled, BAME and overweight so not a great candidate for it and GS is living with us, two positive LTF so I suppose it is pretty certain) so I was only half listening.

I can't believe this was allowed to happen when there are countries that are desperate for vaccines. Did I hear right?

What a terrible waste if it did happen.

@nordica

It does seem to have worked but I don't think there's much reason to celebrate yet, as the current situation has come at a cost - it was predicted since the reopening in the summer that we would see a fairly steady but high rate of cases and deaths for the rest of the summer and autumn, and that has been the case. So we are not seeing the high spike most of Europe is, but it's not like we avoided all the problems either.

People also seem to have become blind to the fact the health service IS massively struggling. Ambulance waiting times are higher than ever in some parts of the country and waiting lists for operations getting longer and longer. I read yesterday that one hospitalised covid patient means 8 operations will get cancelled - so it's not a small impact even though wards are not full of covid patients at the moment.

The number of cases and deaths we've had since July has actually been under even the lowest prediction from reputable experts though.

Which is fascinating in its own right!

They all anticipated more of a peak and then stepper decline. Instead its been shallower and perhaps more drawn out.

I think the only explanation is behavioural with people adjusting back to normality at various different rates. And chains of transmission tending to stay more localised.

Certainly we are doing way better than the moderate prediction and path the government were prepared to go down over the Summer.

I certainly am still uneasy about numerous situations and am avoiding them. Even though I broadly support the route we've taken since July (that doesn't mean I'm 100% happy with it).

@ancientgran

On the BBC politics programme this morning there was a reference to 600,000 AZ doses being destroyed as they were out of date. I was trying to book a PCR for GS (nightmare as I'm nearly 70, husband mid 70s and disabled, BAME and overweight so not a great candidate for it and GS is living with us, two positive LTF so I suppose it is pretty certain) so I was only half listening.

I can't believe this was allowed to happen when there are countries that are desperate for vaccines. Did I hear right?

What a terrible waste if it did happen.

Its likely.

It has happened elsewhere in the world in countries 'who should be doing better'.

I wouldn’t say I avoid any situation. We went to theatre on Saturday and hardly any masks as not required. We’ve had indoor parties etc and lunches

I do still wear one on PT just because there are often older people on there and it might make them feel a bit better

I agree that predictions were higher than what we had

It seems on the surface implausible that the LSHTM figure is right - I note there were also modelled figures showing very low deaths for December www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/19/christmas-boost-sage-predicts-fall-covid-hospitalisations-deaths/

Then again, the actual figures right now are a lot higher than those projections. UK Hospitalisations (7 day average) are over 700 daily according to ourworldindata and deaths were 165 yesterday.

Tuesdays are always a bit higher.

@RedToothBrush

They all anticipated more of a peak and then stepper decline. Instead its been shallower and perhaps more drawn out....I think the only explanation is behavioural with people adjusting back to normality at various different rates.

Indeed, and the fact that a lot of people havn't gone back to "normal life" at all, i.e. still working from home, or using cars instead of public transport, avoiding busy pubs/restaurants, continuing to use online shopping even though shops have re-opened, etc etc.

One of my clients is a very popular village pub/restaurant, who are only back to about 50% of their "usual" trade in a typical Autumn. Like most of the industry, they had a very busy Summer once they could re-open, but most of that was due to a huge outdoor eating area and the "novelty" factor of being able to go out for a drink/meal again, but they saw quite a steep decline of business after the first month or so which continued as the weather turned colder and wetter.

There does seem to be quite a high proportion of people who are still wary of indoor/busy places and that must be reducing the spread of covid.

@RedToothBrush

If the London school of hygiene and tropical medicine is right, then you have to argue that renewing restrictions pose a far greater threat from indirect deaths at this point.

I am expecting a lot of nervousness about rising cases in the uk in the next couple of weeks and i do think it likely they will.

I think we have to have steady nerves though.

The blunt truth is you can't hide from Delta.

Also very much appreciate your posts

Do you have a link to this london school research?

England moved from a position of possibly over reporting Covid at the start to under reporting. e.g. the large discrepancy now between reported Covid deaths and where Covid is mentioned on a death certificate but not as a confirmed primary cause, in many of those cases Covid has still robbed people of time they would have had without catching it.
Also, where people test positive for Covid after admission to hospital, they may not come up on the Covid admissions stats which are often quoted rather than the amount of people in hospital with Covid stats.

Do you have a link to this london school research?

It's discussed in both the BBC article in the OP and the Sky article below.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-many-more-people-could-die-of-coronavirus-in-uk-and-how-will-european-countries-fare-heres-what-the-data-suggests-12476667

Excellent summary thread from the FT's John Burn-Murdoch

mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463450302212886530

I remember posts adamant we’d see plan B in November

I think we’re going to avoid this, tg

Another week to go

(Hopefully not jinxing by posting)

Give it two weeks @MarshaBradyo. Just two weeks....

The ridiculous propaganda coming out of the UK is a joke. Parts of Europe are only just starting to see levels seen in the UK for months! The UK government has the nerve to talk about huge number in Europe!! I am in Spain and there is nothing like the number of cases in schools.

Or lets just keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.

A higher percentage in hospital now are the double vaccinated as the immunity is wearing off and they haven't built up any resistance unfortunately.

@IloveConkers

The ridiculous propaganda coming out of the UK is a joke. Parts of Europe are only just starting to see levels seen in the UK for months! The UK government has the nerve to talk about huge number in Europe!! I am in Spain and there is nothing like the number of cases in schools.

Tbf the media are talking more about Germany and Austria not Spain as rate of increase is high.

@rrhuth the trouble is that Covid Cultists never consider the disastrous and dangerous effects of lockdowns- especially on the young.

@IloveConkers

The ridiculous propaganda coming out of the UK is a joke. Parts of Europe are only just starting to see levels seen in the UK for months! The UK government has the nerve to talk about huge number in Europe!! I am in Spain and there is nothing like the number of cases in schools.

From that J M-B twitter thread

This illustrates why lots of cases in schools in the UK no longer really matter in the same way as previously...

... And why there is a difference between the UK and the Rest of Europe.

This is data. It is not propaganda.

We are in a fundamentally different situation.

That's because vulnerable have already died of it and most people have caught it. Our rates have been high for months, the fact that we are not seeing the peak Europe is is absolutely nothing to brag about when you compare our overall deaths.

Also its not the case numbers thats causing most concern, but the rate of increase in numbers.

The UK's cases are not producing hospitalisations and deaths to the same degree because of those who remain unprotected are mainly in low risk groups.

Unlike elsewhere.

Again this isn't propaganda. This is based on data and the concern is being led by WHO and other governments (like Germany, Austria and the Netherlands).

There are sections of the British press who are gloating about this admittedly.

But it does not change the position the UK is compared to others at this point in the pandemic.

The data looks very good.

The last thing we want is another lock down so it's great if we can avoid that.

It is still awful that we have had all those thousands of unnecessary deaths over the summer; and the situation in schools isn't great for the many of the children, some of whom are vulnerable, and at relatively high risk, remember.

We're very very lucky that the third dose/ booster looks to be so effective. Thank God for that.