It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

I think the thing the UK did right with AZ was to grab it and get it into people's arms, specially the most vulnerable, when we were in the middle of the largest Covid wave and Pfizer was less available.

It may turn out that one vaccine is more or less effective than another at this or that, but taking what was available and getting it into people was the most effective strategy at the time.

Things move on and we need to adapt, using information as it becomes available. But delaying employment of a useful tool to wait for something 'better' is rarely wise in a crisis.

@herecomesthsun

Isn't it more about convincing people rather than mandate?

I'm responding in the context of a discussion about masks being made obligatory for all indoor settings, but yes, I agree attempts to convince people of their effectiveness would likely be needed if we wanted to try and get close to that 10-15%. Plus acknowleding that not all those who are convinced have access to the resources needed to mask properly. FP3s are dearer than reusing cloth ones you already have or wearing the blue paper ones much longer than you're supposed to. Obviously tackling this also comes with a cost, so again would need to be weighed up.

I don't think Kate Bingham gets enough (any?) credit for what she achieved with the procurement of covid vaccines.

She isn't that complimentary about the govt so maybe they don't want to give her enough credit.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10235357/Vaccine-mastermind-Kate-Bingham-lashes-Boris-Johnsons-Cabinet-Covid-skills-gap.html

It is reported in other papers but most seem to be behind paywalls.

@ancientgran

I don't think Kate Bingham gets enough (any?) credit for what she achieved with the procurement of covid vaccines.

She isn't that complimentary about the govt so maybe they don't want to give her enough credit.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10235357/Vaccine-mastermind-Kate-Bingham-lashes-Boris-Johnsons-Cabinet-Covid-skills-gap.html

It is reported in other papers but most seem to be behind paywalls.

I remember people being down on KB on here for various reasons then of course her strategy was very successful.

But her point re science in government was well made this morning. It’s civil service though and yes more science knowledge is required. I doubt anyone in government would mind that point not say she hasn’t been excellent.

Not - nor

[quote manolantern]Good thread here about UK and Europe:

mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1463276238416588802[/quote]
I think its a really good thread.

I think what I've seen about the uk is how we are now not getting a full wave on a national level and instead are getting peaks in one area and then another at a slightly different time.

Certainly what I've noticed is a different between when affluent areas seem to get bit compared to less affluent ones. As a rule the more affluent ones get a wave first and then there is a bigger problem in less affluent areas. I do think there are various places in the uk that probably have had their localised peak for this winter but because its more spread out we aren't seeing everyone getting it all at the same time.

When you got vaccinated will also be relevant here too. If you are more affluent you have more mobility and its easier to get to a vaccination centre and can navigate how to get the first appointments available through education. So these areas probably should have a problem with waning slightly sooner than less affluent areas.

We also seem to get a large cluster centred around one school, it almost passes through that school then moves onto another. It seems that infections are largely being contained a certain degree within the immediate school community and the further you are from that, the more protected by vaccines you are.

Again you get this staggered effect, possibly because the virus has been circulating openly for a while with high immunity levels so its almost dispersed and semi contained.

This is one reason I do worry a lot about Christmas because people are changing behaviour and socialising much more outside their normal social groups, so communities will be somewhat less insular than they have been.

We know that people have reduced their number of social contacts and going into December we are going to see a stepping up. I do think its a moment as crucial and critical as 'freedom day' itself.

It definitely is a step towards normality and we do have to hope that we are in a position where immunity levels are high enough to limit problems.

I don't know if there is a recent comparison of antibody levels between different countries rather than merely vaccination levels, because I think this information could be much more revealing and interesting about how things are likely to pan out over the next few months for various places.

I know the ONS does publish this information for the UK - I've not seen the breakdown of this but I do know that the over 80s are showing 96% having antibodies which is the highest level there has ever been recorded in this age group.

It would be fascinating to see how that compares with elsewhere. And how they are currently farring.

We have had from the beginning this idea that suppression from restrictions works. But no one really discusses at the same time, how long you have to do the suppression. If the answer is for 5 or more years then a strategy which only suppresses over 2 years has other attractions. And your deaths over than time may not necessarily be significantly less - though they dont grab headlines in the same way because you don't get high daily body counts.

The words of the German Health Minister do stick in my mind on this point. We can't say we are 'done' with covid until its completely passed through the population and we are all either vaccinated, recovered or dead and we've reached a point where the pool of people with no immunity or very limited immunity is very small.

I think there was a study about how immunity from vaccines versus immunity from vaccines plus recovery from covid compare which showed that vaccine alone wasn't the highest.

If that does hold out, and you are restricting behave to suppress and rely solely on vaccinating, your strategy is going to hit bumps in the road later.

I've always said that ultimately we won't know what has worked best and who has had the 'right strategy' until maybe 10 years down the line (Spoiler: there is no 'right strategy' - the same measures in one country simply aren't transferable to another because of unique factors in socio-economic demographics. We can only learn from patterns to create future plans which suit individual nations best).

I do think we will eventually find some surprising results on this about how different things have worked and what were common mistakes and what factors meant we were really not able to do things that would have made much of a difference.

@amicissimma

I think the thing the UK did right with AZ was to grab it and get it into people's arms, specially the most vulnerable, when we were in the middle of the largest Covid wave and Pfizer was less available.

It may turn out that one vaccine is more or less effective than another at this or that, but taking what was available and getting it into people was the most effective strategy at the time.

Things move on and we need to adapt, using information as it becomes available. But delaying employment of a useful tool to wait for something 'better' is rarely wise in a crisis.

I know a big part of the problem in the EU country I live in(because despite what you would think reading here they aren't all the same) was that AZ wasn't available to put in arms because they weren't delivering it. There was a pause of a few days where the EU were investigating it but that was it. Once vaccines were freely available a lot of EU countries quickly caught up and overtook the UK when it came to their vaccination rollouts.

I think the issue is about underlying poor health in the uk and a much lower bed per head of population in the uk / gp per head of population in the uk.

You cannot look at the uk data without looking at a map of socio-economic demographics and asking big questions.

Yep... but I haven't seen anyone actually mention it. Probably because theyare actual political issues and everyone is kirting around the problem that the NHS is. Most people are still in the throw of 'how amazing the NHS is' (whilst kicking doctors for not working two 12 hour shift each day)

For example, in france, people with covid can see their GP as soon as they are diagnosed and will get medication if/when appropriate. They are not told to certainly NOT go and see a GP and just take paracetamol...
And yes overall health is also an issue.

For example, in france, people with covid can see their GP as soon as they are diagnosed and will get medication if/when appropriate.

How does that work in terms of infection control and needing to isolate?

All? As in, primary school aged children, kids in nurseries? What would you do about pubs and restaurants?

Well pubs and restaurants are clearly out by default. Cafe too.
Which makes them probbaly one the riskiest situation.

The rest? primary school children have been wearing masks in other countries for more than a year. All other situations can do so too.

Another thing that could be done is ensure the ventilation is OK. To check for CO2 levels, have some air filters etc...
Apparently schoos will now be allowed to buy HEPA filter. nearly two years on....
I'd rather have seen money spent on that than the millions on Track and Trace that didn't do its job.

@MarshaBradyo

For example, in france, people with covid can see their GP as soon as they are diagnosed and will get medication if/when appropriate.

How does that work in terms of infection control and needing to isolate?

Tbh I dont know how they work re isolation and the GP seeing them, bar the fact the GP woud probably take tye same measure any HCP would.

GP also go and see people at their house in france. So they can see 'infected people' wo them needing to go out. A few of my friends have been in that position.

From memory, Im pretty sure going out to go to the chemist to collect your prescription was also OK.

Could we not get our prescriptions here?

I think protecting GP from infection is ok as they are more likely to see vulnerable people

Earlier action maybe and I think we changed that moving away from such heavy reliance on ventilators iirc but if you can keep one area lower risk I can see why my GP says don’t come if you have Covid. Also due to how many people would just turn up on a positive but mild case.

@PerfectlyUnsuitable

All? As in, primary school aged children, kids in nurseries? What would you do about pubs and restaurants?

Well pubs and restaurants are clearly out by default. Cafe too.
Which makes them probbaly one the riskiest situation.

The rest? primary school children have been wearing masks in other countries for more than a year. All other situations can do so too.

Another thing that could be done is ensure the ventilation is OK. To check for CO2 levels, have some air filters etc...
Apparently schoos will now be allowed to buy HEPA filter. nearly two years on....
I'd rather have seen money spent on that than the millions on Track and Trace that didn't do its job.

So just to clarify, your 'all' doesn't include pubs or restaurants, I assume by extension clubs. It does however include masks in primary schools. Could you also confirm whether you want preschool aged children in nursery settings to be masked too? This too has been done abroad, it's happening in some of the US.

I too would like it if we could spend more on proper filtration, but I'm really interested here in what your suggestion is about masks.

Easy to say when you don't have a relative in their early 40s with no pre existing conditions in ICU

Just listening to news KB also added to more scientists in civil service, better connections with private industry.

I agree but often there’s this theme that private is the bad end of it.

She’s a good speaker on it.

Can I just say, in a revolting fangirl way, you do some awesome work on this board @RedToothBrush :o

It's going to be a brave government which actually takes on and addresses why we have struggled so far - wealth inequality, education inequality, north/south divide (or at least "south east vs everywhere else divide"), poor health, poor diet, poor fitness. And unfortunately I can't see this government being that, because admitting these realities reflects so poorly on them.

It is actually possible to hate the government and be fully aware of their general corruption and ineptitude, whilst recognising that the UK has still done OK on some things. I thought the decision to open up in the summer was carefully modelled, I supported it and still believe it will be proven the best choice under difficult circumstances. I found the posts upthread about Australia quite chilling and I'm glad that we don't support mandatory vaxxing, covid passports and the like. It is possible to hold these views without being a flag-waving tory (or a fascist @supermoonrising).

@Sunshinegirl82

This popped up this morning and looks interesting - I haven't had a chance to look at the study itself yet though.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-many-more-people-could-die-of-coronavirus-in-uk-and-how-will-european-countries-fare-heres-what-the-data-suggests-12476667

That's a really interesting theory.

@Happypootle

It is actually possible to hate the government and be fully aware of their general corruption and ineptitude, whilst recognising that the UK has still done OK on some things. I thought the decision to open up in the summer was carefully modelled, I supported it and still believe it will be proven the best choice under difficult circumstances. I found the posts upthread about Australia quite chilling and I'm glad that we don't support mandatory vaxxing, covid passports and the like. It is possible to hold these views without being a flag-waving tory (or a fascist *@supermoonrising*).

Absolutely! I have never voted Tory and never intend to, but on some things the government have done ok. I only hope now Boris holds his nerve, and for the sake of the other nations, that the devolved governments do too.

@amicissimma

I think the thing the UK did right with AZ was to grab it and get it into people's arms, specially the most vulnerable, when we were in the middle of the largest Covid wave and Pfizer was less available.

It may turn out that one vaccine is more or less effective than another at this or that, but taking what was available and getting it into people was the most effective strategy at the time.

Things move on and we need to adapt, using information as it becomes available. But delaying employment of a useful tool to wait for something 'better' is rarely wise in a crisis.

I think the UK's strategy to date means we are now more flexible than others. Whether that means whats gone so far is good or bad is a different argument.

But I think the nature of the pandemic has changed somewhat and being able to be more flexible is key. Atm we still have choices that others don't. Again that may yet change again.

Other countries have almost painted themselves into a corner and its difficult to move on from that particularly because they have been so critical of others in the past.

The UK in 'fucking it up' almost has nothing to lose in having yet another uturn because we've got so bloody used to them and we haven't got the high moral high ground!

"The LSHTM study... found that there could be 10,479 more deaths in England."

Mind you, this is just England, and not the whole of the UK, and also this is in the unlikely scenario that all of the UK got infected at once, with vaccination at the current level.

It still seems a very low figure, given the number of daily deaths still being reported.

@Happypootle

It is actually possible to hate the government and be fully aware of their general corruption and ineptitude, whilst recognising that the UK has still done OK on some things. I thought the decision to open up in the summer was carefully modelled, I supported it and still believe it will be proven the best choice under difficult circumstances. I found the posts upthread about Australia quite chilling and I'm glad that we don't support mandatory vaxxing, covid passports and the like. It is possible to hold these views without being a flag-waving tory (or a fascist *@supermoonrising*).

Yes, libertarian left political perspectives are a thing. Even if we've not seen much articulation of them from the political class during the pandemic.

It does seem to have worked but I don't think there's much reason to celebrate yet, as the current situation has come at a cost - it was predicted since the reopening in the summer that we would see a fairly steady but high rate of cases and deaths for the rest of the summer and autumn, and that has been the case. So we are not seeing the high spike most of Europe is, but it's not like we avoided all the problems either.

People also seem to have become blind to the fact the health service IS massively struggling. Ambulance waiting times are higher than ever in some parts of the country and waiting lists for operations getting longer and longer. I read yesterday that one hospitalised covid patient means 8 operations will get cancelled - so it's not a small impact even though wards are not full of covid patients at the moment.