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It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

834 replies

Warhertisuff · 23/11/2021 07:06

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

OP posts:
Thread gallery
24
650above · 24/11/2021 09:20

I think Germany started lifting mask restrictions in October www.news.cn/english/2021-10/04/c_1310226277.htm and the Netherlands had also started to lift them before clamping down again.

It seems that you need a combination of measures to keep cases down.

MarshaBradyo · 24/11/2021 09:20

[quote PerfectlyUnsuitable]@MarshaBradyo they HAD until the winter started.
At least they’ve avoided the huge number of cases/hospitalisation/deaths we’ve had all summer.

It’s not because they have rising cases NOW that it’s a proof masks don’t work Hmm Too many other factors to take into account, Incl more time spent indoors, not opening windows, a virus that is more virulent in winter (like the flu or colds) etc etc[/quote]
It shows the flaw in that statement - countries who use them can manage cases.

And going back to point of thread high summer peak may well be what keeps us steady now and avoid damaging lockdowns.

I know I’d prefer steady over fast increase due to more severe controlling measures

MarshaBradyo · 24/11/2021 09:21

@650above

I think Germany started lifting mask restrictions in October www.news.cn/english/2021-10/04/c_1310226277.htm and the Netherlands had also started to lift them before clamping down again.

It seems that you need a combination of measures to keep cases down.

With a delta wave you need more than the usual combination you need higher immunity
Willyoujustbequiet · 24/11/2021 09:24

Couldn't disagree more.

With the exception of the vaccine rollout the UK's response has been an absolute shitshow of epic proportions.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2021 09:24

Research is showing AZ as your first vaccines then booster of Pfizer is actually the best combination. I don’t understand the hate for AZ but maybe I’m missing something.

Its still all massively political.

Where AZ may have helped the UK and hindered other is due to vaccine nationalism. Uptake is lower in areas which are arguably more nationalist in thinking (also economically related to a degree). The EU may have done us a favour by making it a nationalist issue whilst undermining public confidence in all vaccines though particularly AZ.

The result being that we have better coverage in some areas which comparative socio-economic areas in Europe perhaps dont have or it simply meant we were less hesitant that perhaps we would have been.

Also its hard to compare this directly with many countries. Germany not only allowed mixing vaccines but actively encouraged it because it was thought it gave better protection. Merkel herself had a combo of AZ and Pfizer.

However I don't think the T-Cell theory works. The real world study on waning immunity in the UK is based not on antibody levels but whether people get symptomic covid, severe covid requiring hospitalisation or die. So if T-Cell immunity was performing more than we realise, you'd see it in this data.

I think I might cavet that with a comment about how when it became apparent that AZ was under question you might have had a fair number of the most middle class and mobile actively and deliberately seeking out Pfizer over AZ by choice thus distorting things a little. This group would be more likely to be healthier and less at risk in the first place. But I still think if this happened its would be a minimal effect because I think most people were just bloody grateful to get anything if they were over 50.

I think one of the differences here was that we perhaps had a greater sense of urgency both because of cases/deaths but also because we had so many restrictions it seemed the most logical and quickest way to end them and AZ was available. The other and probably the most important factor was our timing of vaccines and the decision to do the 12 week gap which seems to improve immunity acquired and make it last for longer too - and thats applicable for both AZ and Pfizer. I think waning in the UK didn't seem to show up in the data for slightly longer than expected.

So I would generally dismiss that telegraph article as more telegraph nationalist nonsense rather than a scientific over sight.

AZ made a huge difference to us initially. Without it, we would have really struggled getting as many people vaccinated when cases were high and that stopped both deaths and transmission chains onward (meaning the R couldn't skyrocket even when things reopened in July when immunity levels were particularly high the most at risk groups). Nightclubs etc reopening in Europe has perhaps happened at a different point where immunity in the population overall is lower leading to more of a spike.

I think the decision not to use AZ again for boosters and instead use the more expensive and more difficult to source Pfizer because it has higher demand and is imported, really is the thing that shows where the UK scientific evidence is taking us and that talk of tcell immunity should perhaps be confined to the folder marked 'bollocks'.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2021 09:34

@PerfectlyUnsuitable

What it shows though is that, regardless of the vaccine levels etc.. the U.K. has NOT taken the right measures to protect its population, whatever those measures are.

Unless the issue is how inadequate the NHS actually is?

I think the issue is about underlying poor health in the uk and a much lower bed per head of population in the uk / gp per head of population in the uk.

You cannot look at the uk data without looking at a map of socio-economic demographics and asking big questions.

Those with historically worse health and poorer backgrounds have done much worse than the affluent ones.

We do also have a much higher immigrant population from India and Pakistani than elsewhere in Europe because of our historical ties with Empire. Research seems to be showing there is a genetic vulnerability in those who have ancestry from this part of the world which may also be a significant issue. Particularly if they are also in higher risk jobs to begin with.

DayKay · 24/11/2021 09:35

Has anyone looked at Japan?
It’s amazing but I can’t find any analysis on their strategy.

They’ve gone from around 21000 new cases in August to 107 on 23 November.

bumbleymummy · 24/11/2021 09:37

We simply don’t have a good handle of how to control the virus.

Maybe we just need to accept that we can’t control it. All these restrictions are just controlling us.

saltedcaramel1 · 24/11/2021 09:43

@bumbleymummy

We simply don’t have a good handle of how to control the virus.

Maybe we just need to accept that we can’t control it. All these restrictions are just controlling us.

I think you'll find a coronavirus wave that breaches safe levels will have far more "control" over you than needing to wear a mask in crowded places..

Maybe we just need to accept that we can’t control it.
various coronavirus suppression measures have consistently been shown to reduce transmission.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2021 09:45

@DayKay

Has anyone looked at Japan? It’s amazing but I can’t find any analysis on their strategy. They’ve gone from around 21000 new cases in August to 107 on 23 November.
I saw something on this.

Theyve put it down to very rigid and perfect following of rules to the letter (no bending etc) being a significant factor. Its much more authoritarian. Plus they seem to be a lot less vulnerable genetically too as a population.

I will see if i can find the article.

saltedcaramel1 · 24/11/2021 09:49

Yes @RedToothBrush

Also much more genetically homogenous as a population (far less proportion of ethic minorities who appear to be more vulnerable) compared to places like the UK.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2021 09:49

Japan

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59342308

Obesity a factor.

Case fatality rate similar to Europe and US.

But less likely to catch it in the first place. Probably highly associated with behavioural differences with rest of the west.

Its an interesting read actually.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2021 09:51

However the expectation is a new wave is due in Japan in the coming months...

DayKay · 24/11/2021 09:57

@RedToothBrush

Japan

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59342308

Obesity a factor.

Case fatality rate similar to Europe and US.

But less likely to catch it in the first place. Probably highly associated with behavioural differences with rest of the west.

Its an interesting read actually.

Thanks for the link. Really interesting.
ExceptionalAssurance · 24/11/2021 10:10

@Parker231

I don’t think 1,000 Covid deaths a week is anything to celebrate. Mandatory mask wearing in all indoor settings should be in place.
All? As in, primary school aged children, kids in nurseries? What would you do about pubs and restaurants?
manolantern · 24/11/2021 10:12

Good thread here about UK and Europe:

mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1463276238416588802

HesterShaw1 · 24/11/2021 10:27

I think the issue is about underlying poor health in the uk and a much lower bed per head of population in the uk / gp per head of population in the uk.

I think we have maybe got used to the staggering levels of ill health that very many Britons live with. So many of us are unfit, overweight, unhealthy and have a shockingly poor diet.

ExceptionalAssurance · 24/11/2021 10:29

@HesterShaw1

I think the issue is about underlying poor health in the uk and a much lower bed per head of population in the uk / gp per head of population in the uk.

I think we have maybe got used to the staggering levels of ill health that very many Britons live with. So many of us are unfit, overweight, unhealthy and have a shockingly poor diet.

Yes, this was always going to serve us very badly. Bound up as it is with our appalling inequality levels.
HesterShaw1 · 24/11/2021 10:34

Purely anecdotal this - I had the AZ and two months after my second dose in the summer I caught covid. I wasn't properly ill, but did feel grotty for a good four/five weeks. Despite having been with my DP the day before I tested positive - and I mean properly with him - he didn't test positive. He was completely fine. He'd had two Pfizer jabs and was a few months ahead of me due to being emergency services.

He was due his booster this week, and has the misfortune to have caught covid over the weekend so is now out for ten days.

That strongly suggest to me his vaccine and therefore antibodies have waned.

I was in two minds about it but I will definitely be getting my booster.

HesterShaw1 · 24/11/2021 10:37

[quote Parker231]@HesterShaw1 - other countries with mandatory mask wearing have been much more successful in managing case numbers. There needs to be a combination of action - mask wearing is just one.[/quote]
I said as people actually practise it.

I'm sure mask wearing can make a difference if it's done perfectly. But it isn't is it? People wear bits of cloth over their face and take them on and off multiple times a day with grubby hands. They stuff them into their handbags.

MarshaBradyo · 24/11/2021 10:42

@HesterShaw1

I think the issue is about underlying poor health in the uk and a much lower bed per head of population in the uk / gp per head of population in the uk.

I think we have maybe got used to the staggering levels of ill health that very many Britons live with. So many of us are unfit, overweight, unhealthy and have a shockingly poor diet.

We are unhealthier than other countries unfortunately amc that’s not been addressed

But with excess deaths there are still higher countries in Europe - which may be healthier but maybe older? Not sure re latter

ExceptionalAssurance · 24/11/2021 10:50

There's good evidence that mask wearing can reduce transmission rates by 10-15% when done properly. That's quite significant. The evidence for grubby bits of cloth and reused disposables, less so. I'm not arsed about wearing them on public transport, in Tesco etc. Fine. There does however need to be a sensible discussion about the benefits of reintroducing mask rules in other settings given the potential detriment- people are not going to sit in pubs wearing them as they drink- and the benefits of actual, real world usage. Which includes there not being any way to oblige people to mask properly and the reality that parents of younger children are not going to have it.

HesterShaw1 · 24/11/2021 10:57

Which includes there not being any way to oblige people to mask properly and the reality that parents of younger children are not going to have it.

Exactly.

How can people be FORCED to mask properly? Mask police going round fining or imprisoning people doing masks wrong?

ExceptionalAssurance · 24/11/2021 11:15

It's just plain fact that a lot of people only mask/ed for an easy life and weren't/aren't bothered about maximising effectiveness. There are some things that could at least potentially make some impact in a situation where masks are legally required, like banning cloth masks or visors. The legislation would likely need to be reworded. But you can't tell whether a reusable mask was fresh on that day or has been at the bottom of a handbag for a month since the last outing. They have to get pretty filthy before that's visible.

Usually when this is pointed out on MN, it's met with substantial criticism of those people's hygiene, selfishness etc. And that's all well and good, but meanwhile there's still nothing to be done about it. I don't see that mandating FP3s is going to work in a society where there are people missing meals because of the UC £20 fiasco, even if we did have capacity for them to be safely fitted for the whole population.

herecomesthsun · 24/11/2021 11:23

Isn't it more about convincing people rather than mandate?