It seems like the U.K. may have a better Covid strategy after all

[Warhertisuff]

... at least since the emergence of Delta. I generally supported the restrictions before last summer, but thought that opening up in July was sensible. It's too early to tell
for sure, but at the moment it looks like the right call.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

@Schulte

I’m also really disgusted about the finger pointing - ‘ha ha, look at the continent, they didn’t want our AZ and now look how they are suffering’.

I mean what is that about?

I still wouldn’t take AZ because of their blood clotting issues.

I don't think the EU countries playing dangerously silly political games with the AZ vaccine is costing many lives now. Although it may have been the final nail in the coffin for some people who where unsure about vaccination.

It did cost lives in the EU at the time, undoubtedly.

He said it on R4 yesterday I haven’t read article but I was interested and surprised

Unfortunately this morning someone else countered it. AZ T cell better for first and Pfizer second but not sure there’s much in it

Even if I think the AZ vaccine is great, I do think Soirots comments were questionable.

Interesting table from the surveillance report here.

Comparing AZ and Pfizer.

Pfizer is more effective at preventing the infection, much more effective at preventing symptomatic infection, but only slightly better at hospitalisation or mortality.

Now one way a virus spreads is for someone who doesn't realise they're ill going out and spreading it. So among communities who have the majority taken AZ, might the increase in people not spreading it because they are symptomatic make some difference too?
Obviously it is a numbers game, but an interesting thought.

To be fair. They’ve amended the article to say ‘nobody has seen the research and AZ are not saying when it will be released’.

But I also don’t listen to a word Indie Sage say either.

We’ll have to wait and see if the research is actually released.

^Now one way a virus spreads is for someone who doesn't realise they're ill going out and spreading it. So among communities who have the majority taken AZ, might the increase in people not spreading it because they are symptomatic make some difference too?
Obviously it is a numbers game, but an interesting thought.^

Our use of LFTs has got to surely help as well. We always have a box in our cupboard. I am sure most of us do.

This popped up this morning and looks interesting - I haven't had a chance to look at the study itself yet though.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-many-more-people-could-die-of-coronavirus-in-uk-and-how-will-european-countries-fare-heres-what-the-data-suggests-12476667

I just find the whole situation deeply upsetting right now. We thought we’d have a much easier winter overall with the vaccines and now look where we are, with numbers rising all over the place. Comparing countries is futile really, the virus is out and about having a ball and doesn’t care about borders.

I was grateful to have AZ and it has had a huge amount of unnecessary bad press. It’s a shame other countries delayed vaccinated people because of this

I made an utter fark up of a posting where I tried to address this point on another thread yesterday so I’ll try and do better with this.

Vaccine procurement was an generally an EU function.
Vaccine programs (logistics, facilities, staff, admin) are OTOH a national issue.
The UK did well by getting it’s AZ order in early.
The UK NHS was by it’s nature/design better to set up to immediately start a mass vaccination campaign.

Neverthless many but not all countries in Europe were only a matter of a handful of weeks (locally less than a month) later than the UK in starting their campaigns, but it took longer to get their campaigns up to the sort of daily rates seen at one point in the UK because of the way their healthcare systems operated….

To conclude and avoid a TL;DR…I suspect the reason for the difference in timing of waves has much more to do with the getting the UK initial order for AZ in promptly and then even more importantly the NHS rather than the well publicised spats and arguments that went on at head of state level.

I think the UK had the right tools in place with regular LFT testing and pcr testing from the comfort of your home.
LFT are €6 each in Ireland, test centre is manic, more people would have tested, isolated accordingly if there was easier access.
I've spent about €60 on LFT but many families wouldn't or couldn't afford it.
No LFT testing in school either.

I was grateful for AZ but also when the data was at 8% for over 65 appreciative that the decision was made to proceed based on other lab information

It was an outlier decision but a good one in hindsight

Interesting thread on what is happening in Austria

twitter.com/lisa_iannattone/status/1461935711951671298

The Austrian commentator is suggesting that the rises in cases were linked to a misguided removal of restrictions because some politicians thought the pandemic was over for them. Plus a sizeable antivax movement.

I don’t think 1,000 Covid deaths a week is anything to celebrate. Mandatory mask wearing in all indoor settings should be in place.

@herecomesthsun

Interesting thread on what is happening in Austria

twitter.com/lisa_iannattone/status/1461935711951671298

The Austrian commentator is suggesting that the rises in cases were linked to a misguided removal of restrictions because some politicians thought the pandemic was over for them. Plus a sizeable antivax movement.

Interesting, thanks…

I know some find it tempting to say “in Europe”, or “dark clouds over Europe” but that can be highly misleading.

As that article highlights, and as individual country data shows, there are massive differences in cases/hospitalizations from one country in Europe to another, and that’s often down to differences in attitude and policies.

Exactly notimagain. The EU is a big place with lots of countries with very different strategies in terms of vaccination and restriction. The EU countries that don't have high levels of vaccination are the ones being hardest hit (see graph). Also worth pointing out that most with a worst rate than the UK per capita are very small in population and with very low rates of vaccination. The AZ argument is old news, at this point rates to do with vaccination have nothing to do with EU procurement or attitudes to AZ.

It's pointless comparing the UK directly with "Europe" or the EU.

As that article highlights, and as individual country data shows, there are massive differences in cases/hospitalizations from one country in Europe to another, and that’s often down to differences in attitude and policies.

Agree which is why those charts below are not useful, as well as misleading.

What it shows though is that, regardless of the vaccine levels etc.. the U.K. has NOT taken the right measures to protect its population, whatever those measures are.

Unless the issue is how inadequate the NHS actually is?

@PerfectlyUnsuitable

What it shows though is that, regardless of the vaccine levels etc.. the U.K. has NOT taken the right measures to protect its population, whatever those measures are.

Unless the issue is how inadequate the NHS actually is?

Are you looking at excess deaths?

And the FT charts do show the increase in cases in the UK, as we see across Europe, for the most part regardless of vaccination level. I think it is a bit too early to say whether or not the UK will keep their high level stable or it will start climbing a bit more quickly as winter kicks in.

@Parker231

I don’t think 1,000 Covid deaths a week is anything to celebrate. Mandatory mask wearing in all indoor settings should be in place.

Why do people keep saying this when mask wearing - as people actually practise it - has shown to have so little effect? We have two case studies right in front of us - Scotland and Wales.

Tbf I don’t think ANYONE has any idea of what is going in there and which measures are making or not a big difference.

Yes masks help. No doubt about it. But are they THE answer? It doesn’t seem to be when you look at Germany atm.
Yes vaccines help (mortality and hospitalisations) but are they THE answer? They are not either. See Israel.
Is it about avoiding big crowds instead? Etc etc
Is it about LFT? I’m nit aware of any country advising their population to do test like this on regular basis. The U.K. is advising children/teens to do that but from what I can see, on the ground, a lot of them just don’t do it. Some occupations ask for that too but not all. Around me, I have more people who never do a LFT than people who do tbh. So what sort if impact does it have? Hard to say really.

We simply don’t have a good handle of how to control the virus.

@HesterShaw1 - other countries with mandatory mask wearing have been much more successful in managing case numbers. There needs to be a combination of action - mask wearing is just one.

[quote Parker231]@HesterShaw1 - other countries with mandatory mask wearing have been much more successful in managing case numbers. There needs to be a combination of action - mask wearing is just one.[/quote]
Have they? Germany has good mask wearing policy doesn’t it

@HesterShaw1 because all the research is showing it makes a difference.
And because masks cannot be THE answer. It’s only part of the equation. The issue isn’t to say ‘masks will stop a new wave and will protect us’. What we are aiming for with masks is to reduce/add to the tool box of things that help control the virus.

@MarshaBradyo they HAD until the winter started.
At least they’ve avoided the huge number of cases/hospitalisation/deaths we’ve had all summer.

It’s not because they have rising cases NOW that it’s a proof masks don’t work Too many other factors to take into account, Incl more time spent indoors, not opening windows, a virus that is more virulent in winter (like the flu or colds) etc etc