Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

The end of the beginning, if that, if you take the world as a whole.
The UK, the beginning of the end, unless new variant crops up.

The reality is @PrincessNutNuts that your tolerance in terms of number of deaths/restrictions imposed is different to the majority. I think your thread on how many deaths people are willing to accept demonstrated that pretty clearly.

The vast majority are willing to accept really pretty high numbers of deaths in exchange for a restriction free life. By restriction free I mean no restrictions at all even those that you consider to be "low level".

You have a much lower tolerance for deaths and a much higher tolerance for restrictions. The vast majority disagree with your view and so realistically you are very unlikely to end up with the scenario you would prefer.

[quote Warhertisuff]@PrincessNutNuts

It's the opposite of that in my opinion.

Ok, what kind of temporary and mild restrictions do you think would be sufficient to keep Covid at bay in countries with little natural immunity?[/quote]
The obsession with immunity causes people to look at things arse backwards almost as much as the determination to "go back to normal" in the middle of a global pandemic.

What do they need "natural" immunity for?

We have vaccines.

@Bringonthepjs

Experience.

As I said earlier.

What experience? You live in the UK presumably as do I, therefore our experience of this will be broadly the same .

You'd think.

I guess we interpret it differently.

It is interesting though because actually when I see your username I do consider your posts to be motivated by an underlying dislike of the current government which does sometimes cause you to be blinkered.

@Sunshinegirl82

The reality is *@PrincessNutNuts* that your tolerance in terms of number of deaths/restrictions imposed is different to the majority. I think your thread on how many deaths people are willing to accept demonstrated that pretty clearly.

The vast majority are willing to accept really pretty high numbers of deaths in exchange for a restriction free life. By restriction free I mean no restrictions at all even those that you consider to be "low level".

You have a much lower tolerance for deaths and a much higher tolerance for restrictions. The vast majority disagree with your view and so realistically you are very unlikely to end up with the scenario you would prefer.

No.

That's not it.

(I mean - I have basic moral decency.

I'm not one of the people out here defending the idea of using children as collateral damage for a temporary extra percentage point on the nation's covid immunity^^ for a couple of months. )

The difference is firm grip on reality versus denial.

I understand the reality we're in - and that things obviously can't just be business as usual during a global pandemic.

Pretending they can is what keeps putting us back in lockdown. . .

Those in denial just want to go back to normal no matter what. It's their top priority.

Whereas for me, actually doing effective things that will get us back to normal is my top priority.

See? Reality and problem solving versus denial and pretending.

@Quartz2208

It is interesting though because actually when I see your username I do consider your posts to be motivated by an underlying dislike of the current government which does sometimes cause you to be blinkered.

It's good that you're aware of at least one of your own biases. It's a start.

No - because your reality is skewed by your dislike of this government and your belief that it was possible for the U.K. to have perused a zero covid strategy. Even now you are harping on about Singapore as though it's comparable to the U.K. - it isn't and it never was. You ignore comparisons with Scotland and Wales because they don't fit your narrative.

Also, your patronising "if only everyone could understand things as well as I do then you'd surely all agree with me, I'm the only one not in denial" is off putting and means that people disengage from your points.

It is perfectly possible to be a rational, intelligent person with a decent grip on the situation and still disagree with you.

I think we’re coming to the end of it dominating our lives, screwing with our minds etc.
I think we’re at the beginning of the disease. It will be here for many years and we will learn to live with it and find ever more effective ways to minimise its impact.

Well, disagree with me then.

Set out your own view.

What was your answer to the question in the original post?

@Sunshinegirl82

Well yes everyone’s experience shapes them to have certain bias. I do read yours with the belief that your dislike of the government shapes your narrative

You are no exception. No one is free of them

Most have said we are in the middle to end stage of this

It depends how you define the "end". If you define it as being able to live your life in the U.K. without any restrictions placed on you to mitigate the spread of covid then I think we are pretty close to the end. Unless we are bordering on a full scale healthcare collapse I don't think any restrictions will be reintroduced and I expect widespread testing/isolation to end mid 2022 provided cases drop by Spring as anticipated.

Vaccination is likely to be a population wide necessity for a few years, whether it can then be reduced to high risk groups only will depend on a number of factors including whether covid continues to circulate at high levels once it becomes truly endemic and how well vaccines "hold" in general terms.

Completely unrestricted international travel I would expect to take at least a further 12-24 months.

I accept that my/the population generally's overall risk of dying from all causes has been increased by the introduction of covid and that this increased risk may well never be completely mitigated.

If you consider the end to be "the point at which covid is eradicated/is of negligible risk to the population" I think we are very, very near the beginning.

The obsession with immunity causes people to look at things arse backwards almost as much as the determination to "go back to normal" in the middle of a global pandemic. What do they need "natural" immunity for? We have vaccines.

Yes, I accept vaccines do most of the heavy lifting, but accepting that some groups, notably under 12s, and a proportion of the population, won't be vaccinated, natural immunity is an important component.

@PrincessNutNuts

Whereas for me, actually doing effective things that will get us back to normal is my top priority.

And what would that be? And what would have to happen for these things to be relaxed?

@Sunshinegirl82

Good analysis of the situation - I agree.

Beginning of the end. So many people have had it and the vaccine will help the rest. It will burn its self out eventually.

The vast majority are willing to accept really pretty high numbers of deaths in exchange for a restriction free life.

That is so foul.

I'd have said middle as I think it will just be endemic like colds and flu and come back round all the time.

I am wondering if it is getting milder though as it passes through more and more people,

I think if the virus mutates and starts killing off younger people then we will have more lock downs, especially if more children die.

@milkyaqua

The vast majority are willing to accept really pretty high numbers of deaths in exchange for a restriction free life.

That is so foul.

And yet true.

There are literally hundreds of things we could do to reduce deaths from numerous causes (stop selling alcohol/cigarettes/fast food/refined sugar, mandate exercise, ban cars, mandate vaccines, etc) and yet we do not do them because the vast majority of people choose freedom over reduced risk. You might not like that personally but mankind as a whole has always behaved that way and almost certainly always will.

Don't go tarring mankind as a whole. There are literally hundreds of things we do do to reduce deaths, worldwide countries have shut down to reduce death from this pandemic, and most human societies do take deaths seriously - have police forces to investigate them, even long ago cold cases. It's not us, it's you.

What do they need "natural" immunity for? We have vaccines.

I don't think anyone's obsessed with "natural immunity" for the sake of it. If we really could get to the "endemic equibrium" stage through vaccines alone, of course that would be better. In practice, there will always be some people who refuse the vaccine. Ultimately, there's not an awful lot we can do other thanat some pointallow them to get exposed to the virus.

As for Singapore, well, what on earth else are they supposed to do? SIngapore's economy is built on being an international hub for business, trade and tourism. Keeping the closed borders going indefinitely was never an option. They have still got quite strict measures in place, but no formerly-zero-COVID country is going to get through this without tolerating an exit wave of some kind. That's a bit shit, but it's also life. We don't ban cars even though they kill many people a year. We do do some things to try and minimize traffic deaths, but that's basically what Singapore is doing right now---their approach is very far from laissez-faire in reality.

As for the question:

In the UK, beginning of the end. The virus appears to have bedded in and become endemic in Denmark and a few other countries. I think we are not quite there yet, but are getting close.

Some countries are way behind.

It depends where you are.

For the planet as a whole, probably about half way through, and the whole wretched saga will probably last four years globally from start to lab-leak (if that's what it was?) to endemic equilibrium.

In England it’s not so much a question at the moment of restrictions versus deaths. The question is will the health service get to such a state that even this government will have to impose some restrictions to prevent cancelling emergency operations and deaths in queuing ambulances. If we are heading for that then it is better to act now. Experience suggests that they always act too late.
I’m watching with interest. They may ride it out this time if those saying that we have just passed the peak are