For those who want restrictions to return...

[Warhertisuff]

When would think it reasonable for those restrictions to be eased again?

Or do you believe restrictions should be a permanent, or at least cyclical, part of life now?

"This ignores the basic mathematics involved - if you start from a high base, doubling soon gets to very high numbers"

Except it is not certain there is a potential for doublings to continue due to high immunity levels in recently jabbed and infected is there. Lots of people said the same around the 19 th of July, highlighting the cases wee so high and how bad the numbers could get with continued growth. It didn't happen.

Sure cases are too high for too long and hospital admissions have been 500 plus for months which is unsustainable.

Will published cases get to 100k as claimed? Possibly not next month but they might around Christmas if vaccine immunity continues to wane

The government aren't going to make masks mandatory again. They may advise it but that doesn't work. I work in schools were massks have never been mandatory or enforceable and most kids use them more as chinstraps.

Countries in Europe specify ffp2 masks etc. That's not going to happen under this government is it?

When would think it reasonable for those restrictions to be eased again?
Or do you believe restrictions should be a permanent, or at least cyclical, part of life now?

Hi Boris, hope all’s well with the family. Listen, I know you had to give The Saj his job because you needed someone who ‘gets’ the backbenchers more than they do the NHS, but I’m not sure asking the great unwashed masses for ideas on how to manage public health in a pandemic is the best strategy. It’s kind of what we elected you guys for.

@walksen If immunity wanes (it does), vaccines don't halt transmission (they don't - althought they reduce it) and we are getting further behind on boosters every day (we are), why do you think the potential for doublings doesn't exist? If cases are rising, they are rising.

The sense that the necessary restrictions won't be put in place by the government doesn't change the reality that they are needed.

@walksen If immunity wanes (it does), vaccines don't halt transmission (they don't - althought they reduce it

Empirical evidence from other countries.

We don't need to totally prevent all infections to reduce numbers. If say vaccines are 90% effective and immunity wanes to 80% then that can result in a doubling of cases. Same with hospitalisations. 97% to 94% protection could lead to doubling in hospitalisations.

I don't think anyone would argue that vaccines don't halt hospitalisations so what is the point? We can all see what a difference it makes.

[quote walksen]@walksen If immunity wanes (it does), vaccines don't halt transmission (they don't - althought they reduce it

Empirical evidence from other countries.

We don't need to totally prevent all infections to reduce numbers. If say vaccines are 90% effective and immunity wanes to 80% then that can result in a doubling of cases. Same with hospitalisations. 97% to 94% protection could lead to doubling in hospitalisations.

I don't think anyone would argue that vaccines don't halt hospitalisations so what is the point? We can all see what a difference it makes.[/quote]
Which other countries?

The UK is in an absolute mess, and it is worsening.

I am in a country on work at the moment where you have to show a Covid certificate and official ID card for entering most places now including eg an autumn fair which is outdoors mainly. Masks are mandatory indoors everywhere, including for school children from a certain age. Population is immensely disgruntled by all of this and calls it the Covid stasi government - cases are low but press is still “all” Covid and there is constant discussion of the democratic implications of the restrictions, people are so fed up of it. There is really no right answer here either way. Plus it is risky not letting more normal viruses circulate for such a long amount of time.
In England, what has gone wrong so far is late booster and flu vaccination programme. Local vaccination teams can’t cope quickly enough. We need to learn from this for next year.

Cyclical - act early, starting with less restrictive things (eg masks, wfh if possible), reduce restrictions according to case number. It’s not just about health system Collapse, it’s about avoiding growing waiting lists for multiple conditions which affect length and quality of people’s lives.

Why you would want to run hot when the nhs struggles to cope during normal winters is beyond me. This sounds like it’s going to be a repeat of last year when people were asking govt to close schools early and introduce restrictions before xmas. Govt delayed, then had to do a longer, stricter lockdown. Plan A to plan F or whatever. Why not instigate Plan B early, then maybe we’ll be able to last through the whole winter without going further?

What other country do you know that has given boosters to adults once they are 5 months lost 2nd dose.

The studies produced as a result suggest very strong and possibly longer lasting effects from the 3rd dose.

Lots of people are fed up of masks and social distancing etc. While I am back to wearing masks at work I think ensuring as many eligible people get a booster before Xmas will make the biggest difference short of a lockdown that people don't want or support ( and won't happen) especially when other less disruptive measures haven't been fully utilised

@walksen

What other country do you know that has given boosters to adults once they are 5 months lost 2nd dose.

The studies produced as a result suggest very strong and possibly longer lasting effects from the 3rd dose.

Lots of people are fed up of masks and social distancing etc. While I am back to wearing masks at work I think ensuring as many eligible people get a booster before Xmas will make the biggest difference short of a lockdown that people don't want or support ( and won't happen) especially when other less disruptive measures haven't been fully utilised

I'm not sure that you are making a coherent argument - are you saying the UK is an exception, or that there is empirical evidence from other similar countries?

What will make the biggest difference would be vaccines + some measures (wfh, masks, isolation of household contacts if positive case). I have a personal aversion to vaccine passports but see them helping in Europe. A smaller difference will be achieved by vaccines alone.

The UK's vaccines-and-bugger-all-else strategy has visibly failed.

But mainly I think we should all get booster jabs ASAP otherwise this winter is going to be awful.

Agreed. I would love to have a booster jab but my age means I'm not eligible.

I'm paying for the flu jab this year but unfortunately can't pay for a Covid booster.

I'm saying there is clear empirical evidence of rises in cases and hospitalisations in other countries even when there are NPI's in place. This was quickly reversed in this country which rolled out boosters to everyone over 60 initially then all adults over 30 then I think everyone else.

As such, the rise in cases when schools when went back etc was predictable. Yes the government could roll out masks work from home etc. The absolute minimum they should be doing right now is increasing the rate of boosters before Xmas mixing which is what 8 weeks away? People I know who are cev are now 7 months post jab still not being invited for one and struggling to book one online.

They could announce masks in a month and it could happen immediately but if they continue to dither there's a lot of people who won't get their booster this calendar year

I think there is a good argument for mitigations to return (and I do wear a mask), but I do wish that people would stop saying that masks and distancing etc really easy things that don’t make much of a difference to people’s lives. They really do make many activities very difficult, for many people, and they also stop many businesses being viable. All people have to say is “I know masks etc are difficult but I think it’s worth it to mandate them again” instead of a dismissive “masks are no bother”.

Surely masks and wfh if you can will reduce the rate (even slightly), and mean that more people can get boosters before case numbers hit 60,000 or whatever. Then boosters will start to work and maybe our peak and total number of cases won’t be so high.

I think that rather than going on about the NHS being overwhelmed every winter (which was a thing long before Covid) and dangling the stick of restrictions, the government should invest in the NHS so it won't become overwhelmed in the first place.

Vampireswife - yeah, unlikely to happen in the short timescale. We have a lower number of beds per capita than many comparable countries in Europe, which means we should be MORE cautious rather than less about the case rate rising.

Agree that funding nhs starting now would be beneficial. But introducing relatively minor restrictions (yes they are still restrictions, but 10 times better than lockdown), will reduce short and long term cost to nhs.

@TheVampiresWife I agree but youd need several years to see the benefit of the investment. In the short term I think we need to bring in whatever restrictions are necessary to keep daily case numbers around 30,000 new cases a day or less. At that rate the disruption to daily life seems manageable.

I agree.
As much as I comply with restrictions, what was the point in getting vaccinated? Wasn’t that the tag line, get vaccinated and return to normal?

To be fair, the investment should've started years ago, but there's nothing to be done for that. As for now, there are lots of trained HCPs who have left the NHS because of pay and conditions - get them back on board. They could be in post before the worst of winter hits. Invest this winter so next winter might look better. Then continue to do so in the coming years.

Masks may be useful. However I've just come back from Scotland where pretty much everyone is wearing a mask (and their version of T&T is properly enforced too, everywhere I went on was told to check in). However their case numbers are not brilliant, either.

I guess the point of bring vaccinated was so that thousands of us arent dying every day. That party's working just fine.

As for the rest we have a choice. Either no restrictions and we accept there's little health care around unless you have COVID, or we stop treating COVID patients at all, or some restrictions and the rest of the NHS is able to function a bit.

The studies produced as a result suggest very strong and possibly longer lasting effects from the 3rd dose

How can you actually believe this? We were never told immunity would wane as fast as it had last time.

@UsedUpUsername well, how could we have been told? Would you really have supported the testing phase of the vaccine being extended a year so the data could be gathered?

Hep a/b vaccine is also something like 1,3 and 6 months. Covid is still a novel virus - it may mutate less now and delta here to stay, who knows. So whilst I wouldn’t bet my life on it I am happy to go with 3rd booster at 6 months for long term protection.

Im hoping that places are kept cleaner forever. Lots of the uk was pretty grubby with lots of cost cutting on basic cleaning before.
I hope people wash their hands more forever
I hope people with colds wear masks in shops/buses forever. I also think masks at work or be allowed to work from home if tgeir job allows if and they are sneezy/coughing with a virus but ok to work.

^ I agree.

I also think we need to think on a global population level and not on a selfish UK only perspective.

[quote Porcupineintherough]@UsedUpUsername well, how could we have been told? Would you really have supported the testing phase of the vaccine being extended a year so the data could be gathered?[/quote]
PP is asserting that it’s possibly longer lasting effects, it’s a bit irresponsible to say that considering how unexpectedly immunity dropped in the vaccines. We were promised something very different.

Do public health authorities have no idea what is going on with the vaccines or do they just communicate super poorly?

We’re are now living with an infectious disease that has the capacity to overrun health services.

Do those who propose we get on with life not want access to a functioning health service? Do they think that’s an acceptable price to pay just so they don’t have to wear a mask in winter, or work from home occasionally when COVID rates are especially high.