How will ever get out of this?

[Toria84]

Cases are continually rising, vaccines don’t stop transmission, vaccines don’t prevent infection.

You can be infected with Covid more than once and by the looks of things we will need a vaccine every 6 months.

How will we ever move on from how things are now? How can things change?

It’s absolutely rife in my area and in my DS school.

Are we now just expected to accept these levels of infection, hospitalisations and death?

There are 130 Covid patients in our local hospital which isn’t far off the number of the second wave!

You can’t really miss it to be honest

The thing is we are ignoring covid and people are still dying because they can't get treatment for other things not just Covid . This is because the lack of availability of treatment is nothing to do with lockdowns and everything to do with the NHS being overwhelmed with Covid cases , soon flu will be added to this.

We can go on ignoring or 'living with' Covid and carry on as normal all we like but if Covid infections get too high and immunity wanes too much and herd immunity continues to elude us we will have a terrible winter with lots and lots more deaths than normal.

Of course most on here would like to be all fatalistic about it and sat ' there is nothing we can do' but what they really mean is
' there is nothing I want to do because I am gambling that my life will be easier if I ignore Covid than if I have to put myself out in any way '

For the majority this gamble will pay likely off, for a sizeable minority it won't

@rrhuth

3. What EXACTLY are other countries doing differently?

• Masks
• Social distancing
• Testing on a wider range of symptoms
• Vaccinating faster and to younger age groups
• Not sending tests to unapproved labs
• Not giving vital contracts to friends and relatives
• Border controls

Generally not being stupid.

Scotland retained some measures including masks, masks in schools, wfh etc as did Wales. Rates of infection in those countries are as high, if not higher, than those in England.

If all we need to do is reintroduce some mitigations why aren't those countries who have retained those mitigations performing better than England?

"The path that SARS-CoV-2 might take to become an endemic virus is challenging to predict, but society does have some control over it. In the next year or two, countries can reduce transmission with control measures until enough people have been vaccinated either to achieve herd immunity or to drastically reduce the severity of infections. That would significantly reduce deaths and severe disease, says Osterholm. But if countries abandon strategies to reduce spread and let the virus reign unchecked then “the darkest days of the pandemic are still ahead of us”, he says."

Nature 590, 382-384 (2021)
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2
(February, so pre-delta)

what they really mean is 'there is nothing I want to do because I am gambling that my life will be easier if I ignore Covid than if I have to put myself out in any way' This is a good explanation of what I have been describing as stupidity.

No one's life is actually easier when teachers are off sick, doctors are too busy, hospital is full, businesses are shut/open/shut/open etc.

The constant disruption is draining and really affecting productivity etc across the economy.

@Sunshinegirl82

Think the biggest difference between UK and rest of Europe was opening schools before vaccinating kids.

That was a really thick move by the UK.

Europe's vaccination programmes are now ahead of us and this is a big factor.

@cttontail

"The path that SARS-CoV-2 might take to become an endemic virus is challenging to predict, but society does have some control over it. In the next year or two, countries can reduce transmission with control measures until enough people have been vaccinated either to achieve herd immunity or to drastically reduce the severity of infections. That would significantly reduce deaths and severe disease, says Osterholm. But if countries abandon strategies to reduce spread and let the virus reign unchecked then “the darkest days of the pandemic are still ahead of us”, he says."

Nature 590, 382-384 (2021)
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2
(February, so pre-delta)

"Until enough people have been vaccinated"

Given over 90% of the population now have antibodies, how much more immunity are we expecting to be able to generate?

Given over 90% of the population now have antibodies, how much more immunity are we expecting to be able to generate?

Have you not read about the fact that immunity wanes? And boosters are required? And under 16s have not been vaccinated?

[quote rrhuth]@Sunshinegirl82

Think the biggest difference between UK and rest of Europe was opening schools before vaccinating kids.

That was a really thick move by the UK.

Europe's vaccination programmes are now ahead of us and this is a big factor.[/quote]
In that case vaccines are all that really matter. We do need to improve vaccine rates in teenagers, having said that teenagers themselves are unlikely to place a significant burden on the NHS as a result of being infected with covid.

[quote rrhuth]@Sunshinegirl82

Think the biggest difference between UK and rest of Europe was opening schools before vaccinating kids.

That was a really thick move by the UK.

Europe's vaccination programmes are now ahead of us and this is a big factor.[/quote]
Not as thick as those that still can't grasp that there was no "move" by the UK

@rrhuth

Given over 90% of the population now have antibodies, how much more immunity are we expecting to be able to generate?

Have you not read about the fact that immunity wanes? And boosters are required? And under 16s have not been vaccinated?

Yes, I have, the booster programme is ongoing.

At what level of immunity in the population would you consider that it would be reasonable to remove all mitigations?

No idea what you mean @Bordois - the UK didn't vaccinate teens and Europe did. England still hasn't got around to sorting it out, apprently it'll be next week before we can bok appointments.

At what level of immunity in the population would you consider that it would be reasonable to remove all mitigations?

I know people like simple answers but the truth really is 'it depends'.

What level of circulating virus are you imagining?
Are you talking winter or summer?
What percentage of ICU are you willing to give over to Covid cases?

If you a resting everything on vaccinaton alone, then you have been misled (perhaps by something our stupid PM said).

teenagers themselves are unlikely to place a significant burden on the NHS as a result of being infected with covid This is another stupid thing that gets said often - surely everyone can understand that teenagers pass the virus to older people.

No idea what you mean@Bordois

Theres a surprise 🙄

@rrhuth

At what level of immunity in the population would you consider that it would be reasonable to remove all mitigations?

I know people like simple answers but the truth really is 'it depends'.

What level of circulating virus are you imagining?
Are you talking winter or summer?
What percentage of ICU are you willing to give over to Covid cases?

If you a resting everything on vaccinaton alone, then you have been misled (perhaps by something our stupid PM said).

I am willing to accept that there will be fairly high levels of deaths this winter (and probably next) until covid reaches an endemic state. I think the vast majority agree with that position at this stage.

Mitigations (however low level and benign some consider them to be) long term are not sustainable. 90% immunity with a plan for boosters and further vaccination in groups that are unlikely to be a burden on the health service in any event seems a reasonably logical place to relax restrictions.

@rrhuth

teenagers themselves are unlikely to place a significant burden on the NHS as a result of being infected with covid This is another stupid thing that gets said often - surely everyone can understand that teenagers pass the virus to older people.

There is no evidence of that happening in the data though.

I am willing to accept that there will be fairly high levels of deaths this winter (and probably next)

That is really pretty dumb in public policy terms.

The position that high deaths, no health service, disrupted education and protracted economic harm is a good outcome is completely illogical.

You don't get 'fairly high levels of deaths' without all the other problems that come from uncontrolled covid.

There is no evidence of that happening in the data though amazing

There is no evidence of that happening in the data though.

You might want to get your eyes checked then.

@rrhuth

There is no evidence of that happening in the data though amazing

We are not going to agree on this, I just fundamentally disagree with your position. I know you think I am some kind of idiot but I'm really not.

Do you follow the data thread? I find that really useful for accessing data and trends.

Here is a recent chart (this is about high/low income areas, but there are clearly two peaks - children and then the parents they are passing it to

twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1450350248895782924

(And the reason there are fewer 'cases' in poorer areas is lack of testing not actually fewer cases)

@Sunshinegirl82 it is not my 'position' it is just numbers on charts and graphs.

If you have some other data then go ahead and share.

Rrhuth

You seem massively fearful and both out of touch with the actual data and expected outcomes

Your posts read as someone who has got their data from the media and nowhere else

Honestly it’s not healthy to be so anxious and pessimistic - not to mention unrealistic

Thankfully your attitude and opinion is the minority

Thankfully the huge numbers on these covid threads (who were just like you last year), have now seen sense too and have too updated their opinions

May the common sense (backed by actual science) continue …..

@Watapalava I was wondering when you’d pop up now the numbers have started shifting into dangerous territory 🤔