How many covid deaths per month is too many?

[PrincessNutNuts]

3000? 4000? 5000? 6000?

At what point would you begin to be uncomfortable with the body count caused by the government policy colloquially known as "living" with covid?

Boris Johnson has been reported as saying that unless 50,000 are going to die he's not changing course.

This number can be expressed as about 238 dead British people every day from September - March inclusive, or 137 deaths per day over a year. Or 416 per day from November - February inclusive.

Is another 50,000 on the covid death toll ok with you?

Or not?

OP I agree with you. But these threads have now become redundant, as they'll always be swamped by conspiracy theorists, and they don't properly engage with the debate.

@Nidan2Sandan

Ventilation is something that would cost millions of pounds to implement though across the UK, you're talking about either having to buy individual machines per room, per building or having to change the actual fabric of the building. This country just doesnt have the money to throw at that, especially not after throwing it all at furlough.

Masks really dont work, Scotland has been the perfect case study for that.

Europe may be a bit of a misnomer, they are way behind the curve that we are on and their health service is better equipped to manage what they do get. The NHS was a god awful service BEFORE covid hit, and it will be even worse now but we vant pull doctors, nurses and empty beds out of our arses. Look at the Nightingale hospitals that largely went unused because they couldn't be staffed.

I havent seen a single suggestion yet on here, that in the real world, would actually work. I'll be interested to see what happens in Europe over the winter. Maybe they will be fine & dandy, maybe they'll be where we are now. Who knows?

What I do know is we cannot throw non existent money at the problem, and masks are just a band aid for a slashed jugular in the grand scheme of things. They may reduce a bit, but they wont get us down to 0. Again, Scotland demonstrated this.

See my previous post, whereby the surge is driven by secondary school children, but not appearing to infect large swathes of the elderly who are the ones likely to need hospital. It'll likely burn out in teenagers soon.

Oh and, weren't we meant to be at 100k cases by October???

I agree with a lot of this.

Although given out high case numbers I’ve started thinking NHS has done incredibly well to get through it (see Aus straining at very low cases)

But yes agree re Scotland / teenagers spike etc

*People have to pay for a lateral flow test in Europe.

They are free here.

If you had to pay for a LFT would you? In France apparently they are equivalent to $25

Maybe they're all testing less because of the prohibitive expense hence less infections are being recorded.

People here test themselves all the time just because they can.*

Actually only "comfort" tests are paid for in France, i.e. those for the unvaccinated to get a pass sanitaire. People tend to use LFTs just in case they are a bit worried themselves over a cold or are going to visit the vulnerable. If you are a contact case or have symptoms, your PCR test remains free. People have to pay for LFTs because they are not seen as reliable tests here: the vast majority of testing is carried out by a professional, there is very little self testing. Tests are easily available to those who need them.

We're testing less in France because there is less COVID about, a lot less. Our schools are operating fine, in fact there hasn't been anywhere near the same level of disruption in the UK. This is probably due to a multitude of factors: high levels of vacccination including among 12-19 year olds (70% done), masks worn indoors, including by vaccinated school children, pass sanitaire needed to access restauraunts, bars, sports club, theatres etc.

@Duckrace

OP I agree with you. But these threads have now become redundant, as they'll always be swamped by conspiracy theorists, and they don't properly engage with the debate.

Being fat increasing risk of covid death or complications is definitely a conspiracy theory……

@Duckrace she's the conspiracy theorist. Haven't you seen her milion other threads?!

Anyway, what do you agree with?
Before covid were you concerned and looking at numbers of people dying from flu and other viruses?
If not, why not?
Why is it only covid that matters to you?

@NearlyAlwaysInsane

Am I the only one here who is grateful that I do NOT live in NZ? A bunch of islands that are super-isolated from the rest of the world, which have been even more isolated for more than two years (taking lessons from North Korea?), and where there is no endgame in sight apart from covid magically disappearing from the rest of the world. And good ole Jacinda still beaming for the cameras while her island shitshow continues.

Spot on with this. Jacinda has backed herself in to a corner and has lost all perspective. She actually told people they should not talk to their neighbours when they see them outside. I lost all respect for her after that.

@Duckrace Funny how these “conspiracy theories” keep coming true isn’t it.
Vax passports anyone?
Also that vaccinators are being now being paid extra to vax children.

You might not enjoy stomaching the idea that some people/ perhaps most people will accept that some people will die from a virus which could be subdued if we curtailed our freedom and activities but that's all I'm seeing here, where are these conspiracies?

What things could we do that we don’t?

I find it strange that people have to ask this.

So many things.

Limit/ban sales of alcohol, red meat, highly processed foods, cigarettes.

Strict weight management programmes.

Enforced exercise regimes.

Taking cars off the road, limiting their usage, only allowing the safest/least polluting models.

Trebling people's taxes so we could pay for the most effective drugs.

As a starting point.

Masks are still mandatory in Wales and Scotland. But the case rates haven't been significantly lower than England's. People just want mask mandates because its a visible something they can see, but it won't help a great deal.

It's thought to reduce spread by 20 - 25%

Here in Wales our teens have never stopped wearing masks in schools. They all wear them. Covid is still ripping through our schools.

Well our case rate in Wales and until recently Scotland, isn't 25% lower than England. We wear masks indoors. Never stopped. Cases still high.

@TheKeatingFive

What things could we do that we don’t?

I find it strange that people have to ask this.

So many things.

Limit/ban sales of alcohol, red meat, highly processed foods, cigarettes.

Strict weight management programmes.

Enforced exercise regimes.

Taking cars off the road, limiting their usage, only allowing the safest/least polluting models.

Trebling people's taxes so we could pay for the most effective drugs.

As a starting point.

Our obesity rates are more than just getting individuals to be more active. You also have to tackle the processed food industry, the fact that our lives are woven around driving/public transport to work, that our schools have our children sitting down for hours every day.

That’s a bit bigger than the response to covid.

@TheKeatingFive this book sums it up well

You also have to tackle the processed food industry, the fact that our lives are woven around driving/public transport to work

I've listed measures we could take against all of those in my response

@herecomesthsun

It's thought to reduce spread by 20 - 25%

Unless it reduces the actual overall total number of infections though, what is the value of that reduction in transmission?

It might slow down infection rates but, assuming it will eventually find its way round everyone, is everyone getting covid more slowly better?

“Enforced exercise regimes”.

It’s an interesting thought. As one doctor opined to me “If exercise was a drug we would all be taking it.”

The truth is that most people would prefer to sit and watch TV for an hour than partake in physical activity. I get it, it’s bloody hard work to find motivation to move. But long term the benefits outweigh the discomfort. I have no idea how this message could be promoted but I’m fairly certain some of the SAGE behavioural psycho could put their expertise to good yse.

And if our society hadn’t ended up with such an ill in health population with huge inequalities, our covid rates would most likely be better

That’s a bit bigger than the response to covid.

In some ways more complex, but we locked down the entire country for months on end for Covid. Hardly a small scale move.

@Iggly

And if our society hadn’t ended up with such an ill in health population with huge inequalities, our covid rates would most likely be better

That is a very harsh truth. It is our ingrained ill health and inequalities that are the root of many covid figures. Any map of cases by postcode shows a marked difference between areas of wealth and poverty.

@TheKeatingFive

You also have to tackle the processed food industry, the fact that our lives are woven around driving/public transport to work

I've listed measures we could take against all of those in my response

Have a look at the research on this and the book I’ve suggested too.

It’s easy to say “enforced exercise etc” but our society doesn’t give us enough time.

The brilliant thing about lockdown - which people are ignoring - is that we did have more time to exercise. The air was cleaner. We walked more.

Why? Because we stripped out the need for commuting and gave people back more time.

That time is being taken away again as we go back to “normal”.

So the reason that these things aren’t being done is that it will take a mammoth effort.

Whereas for the winter that is coming, we don’t need huge changes to keep numbers manageable. So I wouldn’t compare that to what we need to tackle obesity.

With or from?

Throughout this we’ve been told that lots of the control measures have been there to “protect the NHS”, so I suppose if you think about it those terms, it depends on how many hospitalisations the NHS can cope with. Given that the NHS is stretched to breaking in a bad flu year, it’s probably not that many, and probably not as many as we’re going to get this winter. With my more cynical hat on I’d say that’s the plan, let the NHS fail this winter, but not so catastrophically that it’s politically toxic, as it would have been had there been no mitigations in April 2020 or January 2021. The vaccines will see to it that the NHS fails just enough to make the argument for some more privatisation of the NHS, so in that regard COVID has been a political gift to some Tories. But whether you think like me with my more cynical hat on really depends on how much you believe the current government want to “protect the NHS”. I don’t think they care how many people die if it’s politically acceptable and it furthers their interests.

@Almostwelsh

Well our case rate in Wales and until recently Scotland, isn't 25% lower than England. We wear masks indoors. Never stopped. Cases still high.

I question the reduction rate too given this