How many covid deaths per month is too many?

[PrincessNutNuts]

3000? 4000? 5000? 6000?

At what point would you begin to be uncomfortable with the body count caused by the government policy colloquially known as "living" with covid?

Boris Johnson has been reported as saying that unless 50,000 are going to die he's not changing course.

This number can be expressed as about 238 dead British people every day from September - March inclusive, or 137 deaths per day over a year. Or 416 per day from November - February inclusive.

Is another 50,000 on the covid death toll ok with you?

Or not?

I attempted to get my second vaccine and was refused it because i was told they cant mix them. My first was Moderna and the same clinic are now doing Pfizer. I was told "oh you can get it done here (mentions town an hours bus ride away or £35 taxi ride away) Sorry Cant afford it They cant have it all.

The death rate right now is too many.

Almost every other European Country has less deaths than we do, a lot less. And yet we have good vaccination rates. We just aren’t doing public health, we aren’t taking schools seriously, we have waning vaccinations, we have almost no contact tracing and ventilation is hit and miss. We dithered about over 12 vaccinations. We are making mistakes.

Even something simple like a HEPA filter and adequate ventilator in most indoor areas such as restaurants, schools would cut down the rate of deaths significantly.

So no, we don’t have to have this many people dying.

At least half of those dying, didn’t need to die and probably wouldn’t have if they lived in Germany, France, Spain, Italy right now.

I do agree we can’t be New Zealand, but we could be much closer to them, who have done an amazing job. There will be an amount of deaths, there won’t be zero. However I think we could live relatively normal lives and have less than half the deaths we have now.

£35 ONE WAY

[quote einekleinenachtarbeit]@Waxonwaxoff0 thing is would you be that accepting if it was your hubby or your sister who died ? Always ok when it's somebody else's loved one.[/quote]
Yes, I would. Of course I don't want any of my loved ones to die but I am pragmatic about death and we are all going to die of something. You can't run from it.

New Zealand are in negative excess deaths.

And that will only continue as long as NZ remains stuck behind the "Plastic Curtain" of travel quarantine. If NZ ever wants to open up, they must accept some kind of exit wave and a certain level of deaths after that point, as we do not have a perfect "sterilizing" vaccine for this virus.

As the virus becomes endemic and immunity in the population gets stronger, we will most likely be looking at "another flu" on top of the flu we already have. The solution is to push COVID boosters annually and use this as leverage to get more people of all ages to get the flu vaccine each year as well.

I'm going to say 20k, if you insist. It's equivalent to the number of people who die from air pollution every year which is waved away as a necessary loss to allow everyone to get around in their cars and fire up their bastarding log burning stoves and other things which would cease if everyone would just entirely curtail their freedom. So, I'll start there. I'm prepared to add in everyone who is killed by a car but I don't think that will be necessary.

Actually, I've underreported the number of air pollution deaths. It's 40k annually.

news.trust.org/item/20210421130150-sijhl

I actually do think that England was too quick to peel off (almost) every restriction including indoor masks.

But it's too late now. And if I may say so, I think that people like Princess and Nanny have some responsibility to bear for this.

It's hard to get people excited about 200 deaths a day when we had people on here excitedly yelling that "Once we open up, we'll have THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of deaths every day!!11!!1!!11!" After a while, the doom drumbeat starts to sound like background noise, and people tune it out.

And I do, to an extent, kind of "get" why so many people react so angrily to even the slightest hint of "perhaps we might wear masks indoors in very crowded situations, stuff like that?"

The problem is that a lot of people now think of these suggestions as "the thing edge of the wedge"---"If we agree to masks for a bit longer now, we'll wind up wearing masks forever" "Every time we comply with testing, it's just helping to establish precedents. Unless we put our collective foot down and refuse EVERYTHING, we'll be stuck with school closures and restrictions every winter."

And part of the reason why many people fear this, is because they can see with their own eyes that some people (including some on here) seem to be awfully keen to drag this crap out long-term and let us all sleep walk into a creepy "new normal."

It's not a sensible reaction in some ways. But I do understand, partially, why so many of us are starting to feel this way, and to dig our heels in mule-ishly at the slightest hint of "maybe we could just do this or that very small thing, for a few months longer..."

@Randomneim

Couldn't agree more *@PrincessNutNuts* and not enough people are saying this. How are we accepting of all these deaths? Our European neighbors have kept a few restrictions in place and the deaths down. Why wouldn't you wear masks if you can save lives!? what the actual fuck is wrong with everyone, I don't get it -- but I'm (clearly very) foreign.

I think many people see continued restrictions as just delaying the inevitable. Yes, we could continue to suppress the virus with all sorts of measures (and masks in shops is never going to do anything much at all), but your just slowing Covid spread not stopping it. Eventually all countries will reach a state of equilibrium with Covid - we'll just get there sooner.... the likes of Spain will be battling it for longer and have higher deaths once things have settled down here.

I wear a mask in shops but I genuinely don't think they make much difference

Am I the only one here who is grateful that I do NOT live in NZ? A bunch of islands that are super-isolated from the rest of the world, which have been even more isolated for more than two years (taking lessons from North Korea?), and where there is no endgame in sight apart from covid magically disappearing from the rest of the world. And good ole Jacinda still beaming for the cameras while her island shitshow continues.

You can be as grateful as you like - I for one am extremely grateful I don't live in the UK. Between the shit show that is covid and Brexit I can't imagine anyone envying you at the moment!

Completely agree kokeshi. People are traumatized from the effects of lockdown, and very very wary of any restrictions because of this. Acquiescence to masks or distancing feels like going backwards or signifying that more lockdowns would be acceptable.

Do you think of anything but covid OP? Seriously we have to move on. I'm a teacher and my life is back to normal now. Of course I worry about my parents etc but they are vaccinated and we just have to get on with things. Covid won't go away

At this point in time in the pandemic I would say that the acceptable number if deaths is one that, (combined with the resurgence of other respiratory illnesses, and the need to try to tackle the massive backlog of other nhs treatments required) still allows the nhs to function

I don't know what that figure is because I don't have that data

The logic of a virus that is becoming endemic, is that every one will get it. Multiple times. Including all the people in “havens” like NZ.

The only question at this point, really, is what percentage of the population do you wish to have vaccinated before you relax restrictions (and looking at the numbers we reached diminishing returns on that some time ago) - and secondly, what level of ongoing hospitalisation can your health system cope with.

This latter point is misunderstood, IMO. Many people seem to argue that we should put restrictions in place to prevent infections. We aren’t preventing infections with restrictions. We’re slowing them. Redistributing them across time. Because this is unavoidably becoming endemic.

So, I say we run infections at a level that maximises freedom whilst not overwhelming our healthcare resources.

@Iggly

The issue with covid is that it creates huge pressure on the nhs.

You cannot wish that away or “live with it” unless the capacity of the NHS is increased. Or funded properly in the first place.

Otherwise it’s an acceptance of people dying needless deaths when hospitals are too full to treat them - when otherwise they may survive.

Are people happy with that?

People are obviously extremely happy with non covid early deaths, judging by the high level of obesity, laziness and high alcohol consumption in this country. See also air pollution, VAWG etc. Why should covid be treated any differently?

Why is the only option to ‘save the NHS’ seen as increasing NhS capacity or increasing funding? Why is there no serious strategy to reduce overall pressure on the NHS by improving our health as a nation?

I know a small number of people have seen covid as a wake up call and are trying to improve their health but at some point those of us who are able should think about taking personal responsibility, exercising 4-5 times a week, eating healthier and cutting alcohol consumption to a minimum. That would do more to reduce pressure on the NHS than any lockdown ever could, and would have the added benefit of reducing any covid complications and risk of hospitalisation for those that think covid is the only disease out there.

If you really want to ‘save the NHS’ and reduce early deaths then we should all be taking personal responsibility. That would free up capacity for those who require treatment through no fault of their own.

@Kokeshi123

I actually do think that England was too quick to peel off (almost) every restriction including indoor masks.

But it's too late now. And if I may say so, I think that people like Princess and Nanny have some responsibility to bear for this.

It's hard to get people excited about 200 deaths a day when we had people on here excitedly yelling that "Once we open up, we'll have THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of deaths every day!!11!!1!!11!" After a while, the doom drumbeat starts to sound like background noise, and people tune it out.

And I do, to an extent, kind of "get" why so many people react so angrily to even the slightest hint of "perhaps we might wear masks indoors in very crowded situations, stuff like that?"

The problem is that a lot of people now think of these suggestions as "the thing edge of the wedge"---"If we agree to masks for a bit longer now, we'll wind up wearing masks forever" "Every time we comply with testing, it's just helping to establish precedents. Unless we put our collective foot down and refuse EVERYTHING, we'll be stuck with school closures and restrictions every winter."

And part of the reason why many people fear this, is because they can see with their own eyes that some people (including some on here) seem to be awfully keen to drag this crap out long-term and let us all sleep walk into a creepy "new normal."

It's not a sensible reaction in some ways. But I do understand, partially, why so many of us are starting to feel this way, and to dig our heels in mule-ishly at the slightest hint of "maybe we could just do this or that very small thing, for a few months longer..."

Brilliant post.

We’ve heard ‘just a bit longer’ for too long now - no one believes it any more. I’m not prepared to accept restrictions which might make the government believe they can get away with distancing and school closures every winter. Lockdowns should be for dire emergencies only.

@Worldgonecrazy I entirely agree.

There are posts I saw on here about lockdown weight gain of 3 stone. Full lockdown was for a few months both times.

Weight gain of that magnitude in that short space of time is inexcusable, sorry but it is!

Also the threads about people drinking themselves silly in lockdown.

As if any of this won't have long term repercussions on the NHS because people can't stop eating and drinking.

Why does only covid matter now?

@Bunsnbobbins

I understand what you're saying, but the point is that no one bats an eyelid at 50,000 U.K./10 million worldwide sepsis deaths every year but the same number from Covid is apparently completely incomprehensible/unacceptable?

The last few days I’ve noticed more people wearing face masks

No issue with people changing their own behaviour. Much prefer that to any forced change on everyone.

If people are becoming more worried then they will act accordingly which is fine for them.

There are posts I saw on here about lockdown weight gain of 3 stone. Full lockdown was for a few months both times.

I saw 6 stone. Which admittedly I was shocked by.

The point is that lockdown/heavy restrictions are incredibly detrimental for health in the medium term also. That includes risk of obesity, loss of fitness, impact on mental health and lack of exposure to ordinary germs resulting in under powered immune systems. Now that the eye of the storm of Covid has passed, we have to start taking this stuff into consideration also.

*But it is not just where we are at, it's where we are heading that matters. There has always been variation in rates across Europe as a result of different approaches and being at different stages of the pandemic.

The UK was hit by the more infectious variants Alpha and then Delta before other parts of Europe. Back in early spring, for example, the UK had one of the lowest rates in Europe because our Alpha wave had passed and Europe's was in full swing.

With Covid the situation can change quickly. And as the chart on deaths above illustrates, this may already be happening. The UK death rate is falling - an achievement in itself given how open society is and a sign that the virus has been brought under some control. If nothing else really rapid surges in infection should be a thing of the past because of the amount of immunity in the population most experts agree.

The epidemic here is largely being fuelled by high rates in teenagers - and, in particular, those under the age of 16 who have not had a chance to get vaccinated over the summer, unlike many of their peers elsewhere in Europe.

Children are, of course, at very low risk of serious illness. So the concern has always been that infections in the young could spread into older age groups.

But the early signs are that that is not happening - and the rise in children may have peaked. Prof Tildesley says he is "cautiously optimistic" about the data although he says it is quite possible rates in teenagers will remain high for a little while.

When this wave in teenagers ends, through a combination of natural immunity and the vaccination programme that is clicking into gear, we could actually start to see a sustained fall in infections as winter approaches.

That, after all, was always the argument the government and its senior scientists - Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance - made when they decided to unlock on 19 July - that is was better to have our "exit wave" before winter really hit.

Prof Neil Ferguson, one of the senior scientists advising ministers, said this week there was a lot of uncertainty about what would happen next, but a sustained decline from this point on was possible. "It's not guaranteed we will see a winter wave," he told MPs on the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Coronavirus*

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58849024

The cognitive dissonance on this thread is insane.

Look at this graph. All these European countries have good living standards and are carrying on with normal life AND keeping their covid rates under control. They are not in lockdown.

Why do we tolerate this absolute shit show of a public health crisis?