Increasing number of cases

[AutumnAlmanack]

Could anyone please explain to me why it is that the UK is recording such a high number of daily cases, and rising, whereas the rest of Europe and elsewhere seem to be showing a steady decline in numbers? It really baffles me!

"So an ONS random sampling of how many? can be taken to indicate infection rates amonst the millions in this country hmm"

That is how sampling works. It is probably the best measure of true levels of infection albeit it id usually a week or two behind. The next survey will probably show a slight delay increase in prevalence given the recent uptick in case numbers.

There was a spike when kids went back to school (largely because a lot of people also went back to work at that point) but after a couple of weeks they started coming down.

Scotland went back to school earlier and fewer people so maybe faster, but why wouldn’t England have similar spike and decrease?

Waning immunity from early vaccination
Lack of masks indoors (incl schools)
Low vaccine levels for under 18s (very few single vaxxed let alone double vaxxed)
Some pretty inexplicable rules (eg non isolation of unvaccinated siblings).

We have no restrictions, household contacts don’t need to isolate, many won’t wear masks despite businesses asking them politely to do so, booster roll out is slow etc. Then there’s the ones who don’t test when
ill or their children are as know it’s not covid somehow

But are quite a bit lower than England’s, are steadily declining, and have been for the past couple of months.

That’s quite a generous interpretation of the relative case rates.

"Scotland went back to school earlier and fewer people so maybe faster, but why wouldn’t England have similar spike and decrease?"

Technically anywhere opening up will have a spike and decrease. That is generally happens in pandemics.

There are a number of reasons why English numbers have go higher or last longer.

Close contacts in Scotland still have to isolate while they await a negative PCR.
Scotland has more mitigations than england.
Scotland has rolled out jabs to younger kids far faster and more efficiently than England

Technically anywhere opening up will have a spike and decrease.

Ok so England will too. That’s good as it will be pre Winter.

Plus mitigations generally flatten curves so England should be sharper

I live in France. We all wear masks. All school kids over 11 wear masks. All shops require you to wear a mask. Public transport. Basically, we wear masks a lot and it's absolutely fine, we don't get hysterical about it, and we had 3700 cases in the last 24 hours, about 5000 one day last week, so is that about 9 times lower than you all in the UK? We don't feel like we haven't opened up, though. We're just loads more relaxed than you all about wearing a mask.

Oh and our 12-18 year olds are double vaxxed too and we started that back in June IIRR.

@PurpleDaisies

But that’s not true is?…. You do realise that over 84% of 12-16 year olds have had their first vaccine and over 70% have had their second……..

In the uk? Most 12-16 year olds aren’t even having a second jab. Where’s this stat from? It seems wildly inaccurate.

I’ll admit I heard it on a talk show this morning and they were reporting it as fact. I was quite impressed with the uptake and assume it’s correct

I live in France. We all wear masks. All school kids over 11 wear masks. All shops require you to wear a mask. Public transport. Basically, we wear masks a lot and it's absolutely fine, we don't get hysterical about it, and we had 3700 cases in the last 24 hours, about 5000 one day last week, so is that about 9 times lower than you all in the UK?

I live in Scotland, which is part of the UK. We all wear masks. All school kids over 11 wear masks. All shops require you to wear a mask. Public transport. And yet! Cases many many many times higher than yours.

The absolute determination of people to believe that the only reason England’s cases are high is masks, despite the experience of the countries right next door, is baffling.

[quote herecomesthsun]@TableFlowerss Do you actually live in the UK?[/quote]
Yeah, I actually do….

Tableflowers it's really really not correct

Was the figure you heard 84% of everyone over 12? That might be right.

I’ll admit I heard it on a talk show this morning and they were reporting it as fact. I was quite impressed with the uptake and assume it’s correct

It’s wrong. Not even just a little bit wrong. Totally, wildly wrong.

@MargaretThursday

But that’s not true is?…. You do realise that over 84% of 12-16 year olds have had their first vaccine and over 70% have had their second……..

You do realise that is wrong in England don't you?

In England on 17th October 15% of 12-15yos have had their first jabs and 57.2% of 16-17yos. (taken from the gov.uk website)
Most 12-17yos will not be offered a second jab, it's only if they're clinically vulnerable/live with someone that is CV they'll be offered a second. Otherwise one dose is all they're getting.

Really? Jesus, I heard it on a tv magazine breakfast show that reported the figures I have in my OP. They really shouldn’t be reporting it as fact.

Really? Jesus, I heard it on a tv magazine breakfast show that reported the figures I have in my OP. They really shouldn’t be reporting it as fact.
Which programme? I think you must have misheard.

Percentage of population aged 12+
85.9%

Maybe it was this

France is really interesting. So in Jan and right through until April you were averaging about 25,000 to 30,000 cases per day. And that went on for 4 months! Because you had no lockdown 3 like we did.
So at that time (because countries are on different trajectories) our cases by March/April had been brought right down artificially, far lower than France. Whereas you just carried on with cases bubbling away. And then I wonder what caused your drop over summer? I guess vaccinations kicking in. For what it’s worth I think that the French strategy was better.

I think lurching in and out of lockdowns creates a huge spike when you come out of lockdown. Then we didn’t move fast enough with vaccinating the over 12s.

You’ve worn masks throughout in France? Yet you still had the 30,000 cases daily earlier in the year . And it’s unfortunate we’re getting our high cases going in to winter now.

But if we’d been having this conversation back in April the U.K. would have looked much more favourable versus France. We’re all on different trajectories.

"Ok so England will too. That’s good as it will be pre Winter"

Let's hope so because at this rate groups 1 to 9 won't all get the boosters by then.

I must have mis heard then because I thought wow that’s really high so that’s good that nearly 85% of 12-15 year olds have been vaccinated.

I realise that’s wrong. Very very wrong.

I would say that it’s actually quite good though because the numbers are getting higher and I did think, if these are the figures despite so many kids being vaccinated, then it’s concerning.

Hopefully once most of that group are vaccinated, it will really stop the spread.

Because we are testing more.
I guess some people are profiting hugely from these contacts.
Cases don’t mean illnesses.

YY @GoldenOmber Its bloody baffling. And quite sinister IMO Its almost as if coercive control is behind wanting others to do something that makes no difference.

It is baffling re:masks. Why didn’t they work so well for France earlier in the year? Maybe the masks are different masks now. Magic masks.