Increasing number of cases

[AutumnAlmanack]

Could anyone please explain to me why it is that the UK is recording such a high number of daily cases, and rising, whereas the rest of Europe and elsewhere seem to be showing a steady decline in numbers? It really baffles me!

I don’t think people elsewhere in the UK appreciate just quite how high rates have got in the land of masks-and-WFH-and-distancing outside England. Scotlands cases at one point were about two and a half times higher than England’s. If the whole UK had had the same rates as Scotland’s, we’d have been on about 90,000 cases a day. Unless the border has some magical covid-amplifying affect I am not seeing how that can be England’s fault.

Good point

@luckylavender They absolutely do have control over their borders and did at various points restrict travel across them from England. And obviously the stay at home orders effectively prevented travel between the four nations.

I have said before I'd love to be the leader of a devolved nation as you get to enjoy praise for things that go well but all the blame is piled on Westminster when things go badly.

@Rosiesmydog

A group of 5 young adults - I’m guessing students - in Tesco today. None were wearing masks (I’m in Wales btw). Shouting and laughing as young adults do, I guess. WTAF?? These are the group who are spreading it around mostly and they are happily acting like fucking prat’s who don’t give a rats arse about the older, more vulnerable shoppers who are potentially being exposed to the possibility they are spreading Covid… I was livid, shot them some evils but really wish I’d said something 😫

Give them a break FGS. This age group has suffered so much, and given up a great deal.

Covid deaths are defined as

Death for any reason within 28 days of a positive covid test.

For any reason means you died of any possible cause but had tested positive in the last 28 days.

Free tests which people are obsessed with using whereas euro countries pay for them. If you had to pay for every lft would you honestly do it that often.

@AutumnAlmanack

Could anyone please explain to me why it is that the UK is recording such a high number of daily cases, and rising, whereas the rest of Europe and elsewhere seem to be showing a steady decline in numbers? It really baffles me!

As a general rule...

Countries with higher numbers are failing to control the virus.

Countries with lower numbers are doing a better job of controlling the virus.

The more covid cases you have, the more covid chaos you have.

It all hinges on controlling the case numbers.

And we know we can do that, because all over the world countries have done it multiple times before.

The longer you let things get out of hand, the more it takes to get things back under control.

@Rosiesmydog

A group of 5 young adults - I’m guessing students - in Tesco today. None were wearing masks (I’m in Wales btw). Shouting and laughing as young adults do, I guess. WTAF?? These are the group who are spreading it around mostly and they are happily acting like fucking prat’s who don’t give a rats arse about the older, more vulnerable shoppers who are potentially being exposed to the possibility they are spreading Covid… I was livid, shot them some evils but really wish I’d said something 😫

Awww, hopefully they noticed the evils and had a good laugh about you.

The thing that I don’t understand is who is left to be infected. We have heard that 1 in 65 or 1 in 100 have the virus any particular week. This has been going on for 18 months so either reinfection is much higher than we think or I’m missing something

"A group of 5 young adults - I’m guessing students - in Tesco today. None were wearing masks (I’m in Wales btw). Shouting and laughing as young adults do, I guess. WTAF?? These are the group who are spreading it around mostly and they are happily acting like fucking prat’s who don’t give a rats arse about the older, more vulnerable shoppers who are potentially being exposed to the possibility they are spreading Covid… I was livid, shot them some evils but really wish I’d said something 😫"

"Young people laughing in Tesco? Those bastards"

😅

@AliceinBorderland

Covid deaths are defined as

Death for any reason within 28 days of a positive covid test.

For any reason means you died of any possible cause but had tested positive in the last 28 days.

Free tests which people are obsessed with using whereas euro countries pay for them. If you had to pay for every lft would you honestly do it that often.

No they're not.

The 28 day deaths are a quick and dirty measure.

The true total is by death certificate.

@Rosiesmydog

A group of 5 young adults - I’m guessing students - in Tesco today. None were wearing masks (I’m in Wales btw). Shouting and laughing as young adults do, I guess. WTAF?? These are the group who are spreading it around mostly and they are happily acting like fucking prat’s who don’t give a rats arse about the older, more vulnerable shoppers who are potentially being exposed to the possibility they are spreading Covid… I was livid, shot them some evils but really wish I’d said something 😫

You sound deranged. So are young folk expected to put their life on hold forever and not see friends etc. Covid is never going away! Vaccines aren’t a magical cure - you can still get and transmit the virus even if you are vaccinated. Also, masks are not magical shields that will stop cases. So we have to wear them in shops but 50,000 football fans don’t need to wear one and can sing and shout. They then go out to shops /work/socialise. Your point is completely invalid. Cases are high because we are obsessed with testing.

A lot of places have masks and improved ventilation in schools and have jabbed their over twelves. All helps.

Amen @Poachedeggs1

You hit the nail on the head. My son can't do a 1 hour Halloween disco wi5 50 kids but his dad can go to a 30,000 football game. Nuts just nuts.

Yeah that's not a true total @PrincessNutNuts

A doctor placing Covid 19 on someone's death certificate because they think based on the symptoms they displayed it could have been a contributing factor. Might have been pneumonia. Might have been flu. Might have been bronchitis...................

Doctors are never wrong of course and can't be questioned........

The pattern seems to be similar to last year

Infection rate in kids rises then spreads to other groups.

Mitigations in schools have been pretty much abandoned and this has eventually led to it spreading to parents than grandparents etc.

This might not be a problem except for possible waning of protection and the booster program which is going very poorly at the moment.

Israel had rises in cases and hospitalisations in older groups which was reversed by the booster program. It might be that the 12 week gap might help with this.

Some people will use trump's argument against that testing more finds more cases but our positivity rate is higher than most of Europe and the ons survey does not depend on people proactively getting tested so cases are genuinely on the rise and prevalence in secondary kids is extremely high.

I also think you would expect more cases in Scotland and Wales since they have had fewer infections proportionally than England so far and we know that infection plus jabs give the highest protection against new infection.

Vaccines aren’t a magical cure - you can still get and transmit the virus even if you are vaccinated

And yet the magical vaccine passports will stop transmission.

The pattern seems to be similar to last year

Except if you compare hospitalisation patterns to this time last year you’ll see a big difference in rate of change.

@cptartapp

Rosies embarrassing comment. Plenty of older, vulnerable non mask wearing older people spreading it around too. And they're likely to have had two, if not three vaccines. Very many teenagers, through no fault of their own haven't even had their first.

Have to agree with this. I've seen just as many older people not wearing masks. Plus I know several older couples who've all had some lovely jollies abroad recently. Meanwhile younger ones have had a shit time of schooling, Uni and exams over the last 18 months, and so many of them still waiting for their vaccine. (Plus they're only getting one. Which will be interesting when they would like to venture to another country. )

"Except if you compare hospitalisation patterns to this time last year you’ll see a big difference in rate of change"

Clearly, but then this thread was asking about cases.

@walksen

"Except if you compare hospitalisation patterns to this time last year you’ll see a big difference in rate of change"

Clearly, but then this thread was asking about cases.

It’s good if people can see it’s not exactly the same pattern as hospitalisation is key.

@Luckytattie

Have you looked at how many are being tested? I think the UK are doing double or more than what other countries are!

Not so

@MarshaBradyo

The pattern seems to be similar to last year

Except if you compare hospitalisation patterns to this time last year you’ll see a big difference in rate of change.

The dynamic of cases spreading from young to old up the age groups whenever we have high cases and it's too cold to see Grandad in the garden has been so consistent I'll be surprised if that's changed.

The weather's turned, so It might take a week or two but I expect cases will start to tick up in the over 60s, and then hospitalisations and deaths.

Just as they always have.

The vaccines slow that down and dramatically reduce the numbers, but they can't stop it alone when there are a million detected new cases a month.

"It’s good if people can see it’s not exactly the same pattern as hospitalisation is key"

Most people realise this as we didn't have 45k cases a day this time last year!

@Confused10101

Because of the utter selfishness and entitled behaviour of the majority

Because if the ‘I’m bored of a virus now’ attitude

Because thinking that ‘well if I get sick I’m fine as I don’t need to pay for healthcare’ attitude

Because still believing that the NHS is what it was 70 years back

Because thinking that the post Brexit Britain is a wonderland where everything will be taken care of

It’s utter silliness to ditch masks and social distancing…

So when is not silly according to you?

Because after coming up two years, enough is a enough. Only on MN do you actually see people spouting madness like this

We actually have higher hospitalisation now I think but the key difference is rate of change.

We are holding far steadier.

Princess actually put two comparative October charts on graphs thread and I was struck by one jumping about 2k and the other remaining steady.

We’ve been hovering around same figure for ages. (I haven’t gone back to other thread so from memory)

I find it astonishing that we are apparently accepting a situation where 1000 people a week are dying. We're well past the stage when we can be complacent and suggest that that's all the elderly or infirm who may have died anyway. If we had that many people dying in, say, plane accidents every week no-one would be getting on planes.