Increasing number of cases

[AutumnAlmanack]

Could anyone please explain to me why it is that the UK is recording such a high number of daily cases, and rising, whereas the rest of Europe and elsewhere seem to be showing a steady decline in numbers? It really baffles me!

@herecomesthsun

It's also true that we are wearing masks less than some other European countries and that our government was going for a populist line about "irreversible" freedom from restrictions over the summer, and didn't vaccinate younger teens, unlike much of Europe.

We ARE wearing them in Scotland and our numbers were very high for a period. As if masks are the magical key.....!

The main differences are;

• more mass gatherings in the UK (having been to one it would be very easy to fake evidence of a vaccine or negative LFT)

• appalling sick pay, which means people don't isolate

@Bramshott

The positive tests will all be PCRs though - not regular lateral flows, so the fact that we're doing more tests surely just means we have more people with symptoms and therefore more people with Covid?

There’s something in this. Anecdotally, everyone where I live in the UK currently has Covid or is a contact of a confirmed case. In my European home country, nobody has had Covid. So they have no reason to test. But they do twice weekly asymptomatic testing in schools, too.

So the argument that we only have crazy numbers because we test more just doesn’t hold.

Masks aren't a magical key but are thought to reduce spread by 20-25%, which is worth having.

Vaccinating teens before schools went back would also have been worthwhile.

That's why it's important not to look at the total number of tests but the % of positivity of all tests carried out. Same principle as excess deaths rather than raw total deaths being relevant.

@KingsleyShacklebolt

We have restrictions in Scotland. And masks. And social distancing. And we're still being asked to work from home. And vaccine passports.

And still the numbers are high.

In the town in Scotland I live in I'd now say at least 75% of people are no longer wearing masks or distancing in shops. My partner, who has been working from home since the beginning, has now been asked to start going back to the office in a large city, where he does exactly the same thing he was doing from home, but management just want people in the building.

France etc had much, much higher numbers than is in the spring when ours were very low.

It's so pathetic on here that posters try to blame the public for wanting their 'freedom'. Like people are wrong for making their own risk assessment and doing things legally allowed.

Germany's figures have been rising recently. Nowhere near the UK but with a 7 day average of 9k cases daily, their 7 day average daily death rate of just over 60 seems very high.

Same is true for reported +ve vs reported deaths in Italy, Spain and France.

Can we trust any country to be reporting accurately?

@Puddington completely different here. 95% mask wearing. I also wfh and I'm only being asked to go in once or twice a month (huge company).

absolutely this - stop testing for a cold (even if just to be on the safe side)
Do you all want restrictions to last forever?
Some of us want 'freedom' -bunnybugs

Some of us want sustainable ‘freedom’ (freedom from infection control restrictions specifically) and to do that we need clear measures of what is going on.

Relying on hospital/excess death measures doesn’t accurately tell us what’s going on in the community, how widespread infections are and how it’s behaving. We’re still in the midst of a pandemic globally, it doesn’t really matter what we want individually, a virus is going to do what it’s going to do, but if we stop observing it we are in a very precarious position for effective damage limitation. We literally can’t afford to be caught out. This winter is a stress test of whether we can scale back from the widespread testing and really put harsher restrictions to bed.

One of the highest underlying health issues factoring in hospital admissions and deaths in all age groups in previous waves has been flu/pneumonia. It’s pretty much self explanatory why winter is such a big hurdle to get past.

10 kids died as a result in September.

Could I have a source for this, please?

We are testing many, many more people than other countries therefore we find many, many more cases.

I cannot find the figures you speak of in relation to child deaths, link please.

If you find those numbers low it’s not the vaccination team’s fault.

The rollout to teens is a shitshow. Planned dates have been cancelled, where vaccine teams have shown up, they haven't had enough time to actually vaccinate all the teens for which they had consent. Some schools aren't due to see a vaccine team till November. Some who have had their jabs cancelled have no idea of a new date.

By the time they actually get to many schools it'll be useless as you can't have the jab within 28 days of having covid. Currently 1 in 12 secondary pupils are infected.

[quote Pootle40]@Puddington completely different here. 95% mask wearing. I also wfh and I'm only being asked to go in once or twice a month (huge company).[/quote]
I do keep reading people saying that "in Scotland we still follow all the guidance" etc and it really doesn't correlate to where I live at all I have to wear a mask at work (also still wear one while in shops and restaurants etc since it's still the guidance) and I was actually berated by a woman for it, who told me I was "giving up my freedom" and some other nonsense. While at work!

I wonder what people think about these facts (a genuine question, not meant to be provocative):

1. The Conservative Party has been in government since 2010 - usually after this amount of time in charge the opposition is miles ahead in the polls with a realistic chance of being the next government. But the YouGov polls (I realise these aren't 100% accurate so lots of caveats etc) consistently put the Conservative Party in the lead when researching voter intentions (Labour have hardly been in the lead at all since December 2019 and when they have their lead has been marginal and not lasted). The latest poll about voter intention (conducted 11 days ago) put the Conservatives with 39% and Labour with 31%. These YouGove poll results are mirrored in other polls conducted by the papers and by other companies.

1. At this stage of an election cycle, the leading party usually gets a kicking in local elections. In the May 2021 local elections in England, the Conservatives gained 11 Councils while Labour lost 10. Interestingly, the SNP in the Scottish Parliamentary elections in May gained only one seat and in the Welsh Senedd Labour gained only one more MS than in 2016 (the Conservatives made fairly big gains and overtook Plydd Cymru as second biggest party).

1. Polls about the Prime Minister himself (again, caveat that these are just polls etc) consistently put him ahead of Sir Keir Starmer.

Doesn't that suggest the the majority of people (in England, Scotland and Wales at least) are satisfied with the government's handling or think that no other party would have handled it so differently as to get to a different place? Apologies that I don't have information about Northern Ireland - I'm not as familiar with their political system (I need to fix that!).

Europe vaccinated later, so waning effects of early jabs not yet showing-
we need boosters asap.

Mask wearing. Covid passports. Large gathering restrictions still in place in Europe.

School children vaccinated in Europe.

However, we have 'freedom.' whoop de doo.

A group of 5 young adults - I’m guessing students - in Tesco today. None were wearing masks (I’m in Wales btw). Shouting and laughing as young adults do, I guess. WTAF?? These are the group who are spreading it around mostly and they are happily acting like fucking prat’s who don’t give a rats arse about the older, more vulnerable shoppers who are potentially being exposed to the possibility they are spreading Covid… I was livid, shot them some evils but really wish I’d said something 😫

Well I've just had Covid given to me by my DC, my DH has had Covid despite being jabbed too. My neighbour has Covid and he's jabbed as it came form school, so sadly it's not going to stop you getting Covid, it might be milder but it will still be a case of Covid. Teachers all have Covid too. I don't see there is any stopping it.

@Rosiesmydog

A group of 5 young adults - I’m guessing students - in Tesco today. None were wearing masks (I’m in Wales btw). Shouting and laughing as young adults do, I guess. WTAF?? These are the group who are spreading it around mostly and they are happily acting like fucking prat’s who don’t give a rats arse about the older, more vulnerable shoppers who are potentially being exposed to the possibility they are spreading Covid… I was livid, shot them some evils but really wish I’d said something 😫

Why? Genuine question? This is the age group which has undoubtedly suffered the most. Literally put their lives on hold to protect the elderly and vulnerable. They are also the group being used to drive herd immunity at who knows what cost to them long term.

You're angry with the wrong people.

Young people laughing in Tesco? Those bastards.

@Rosiesmydog

A group of 5 young adults - I’m guessing students - in Tesco today. None were wearing masks (I’m in Wales btw). Shouting and laughing as young adults do, I guess. WTAF?? These are the group who are spreading it around mostly and they are happily acting like fucking prat’s who don’t give a rats arse about the older, more vulnerable shoppers who are potentially being exposed to the possibility they are spreading Covid… I was livid, shot them some evils but really wish I’d said something 😫

If one has it it's probably only spreading around themselves. Close contact, you're not going to catch from 20 meters away at the bananas.

@CuriousUnderTheStairs

We are testing many, many more people than other countries therefore we find many, many more cases.

This is literally all it boils down to

@QueenofKattegat

Young people laughing in Tesco? Those bastards.

That made me properly laugh out loud!

@covidwoewoe

France etc had much, much higher numbers than is in the spring when ours were very low.

It's so pathetic on here that posters try to blame the public for wanting their 'freedom'. Like people are wrong for making their own risk assessment and doing things legally allowed.

I don't think anyone is blaming people for wanting their freedom. The govt however should rot in hell for playing with people's lives and livelihood in the way it has.