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The great South west PCR mystery

558 replies

3asAbird · 11/10/2021 13:16

They say they investigating when we going to find out outcome?

inews.co.uk/news/covid-lateral-flow-tests-negative-pcr-1236141

Is it option

  1. faulty batch pcr tests only at South west drive through test centres? 2/ corruption or negligence at the local lab? Does the South west have 1 giant lab that processes bath/ Swindon and Bristol pcr tests
  2. some new varient that evades pcr tests like the one in France.

Are we even doing much genome sequencing these days?

We did have surge testing in Bristol last winter with varient e48k similar South Africa but that was pre delta.

We had massive cases in locally June and July.
Local r rate seems low currently despite so many off school and 2 Universitys return.

3 kids my child's year have postive lft but negative pcr.
We don't have any set date for covid jabs.
The school is not declaring any cases at all publicly..

Weirdly people saying home tests giving postive results.

That lft more likely to bring us false negative than postive..

Just makes me worried so much covid all over the region undetected with postives not isolating.

So many if these postive lft negative pcr seem to be school children.
ONS forecast 1 in 14 teens had covid last week yet all teens at our school with covid symptoms have negative pcr?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
24
MarshaBradyo · 14/10/2021 09:02

I wonder when PCRs will be dropped for general public (maybe still hospitals as I assume you need it for variant review).

Hard to know

Mellowfruitfulnessy · 14/10/2021 09:06

1/4 of my dc class off today with positive Covid cases after several returned last week with heavy colds and pos LFT but neg PCR. This feels utterly criminal. Why the delays in advice and investigation?

Tinysnickers · 14/10/2021 09:23

If they say rely on the LFDs people will stop using them.

gingercatsparky · 14/10/2021 09:28

We had this badly in our school also in the SW. I know loads of parents in the same position. Definitely something happening as the school was reporting to the health officials who were tracking cases.

Alicesays · 14/10/2021 09:33

@ATieLikeRichardGere

The other possible solution mentioned is that now more other human coronaviruses - not sars-cov-2 - are circulating, some of these have an N protein that is cross reactive for the LFTs, giving a false positive for covid-19.
Richard Gere has the answer! That's a sentence I never thought I'd say in relation to a covid testing mystery Grin
Itisasecret · 14/10/2021 09:38

Sadly it isn't the answer as people then go to test positive via postal.

Thewiseoneincognito · 14/10/2021 09:42

@ThemedName

The bbc news article posted up thread is interesting. I think that’s the first of the spin to cover up the issues. So rather than admit there has been an issue the guidance will change to be “rely on lfts”
Just read the same thing on Sky News. Most certainly spin because their reasoning does not explain the recent discrepancies, PCRs worked fine until a few weeks ago so what’s suddenly changed?
Tinysnickers · 14/10/2021 09:53

It could be that symptoms have changed and people are now snotting rather than coughing. There was a post on twitter by a scientifist explaining that in People who are very snotty with covid, the excess mucus could interfere with the PCR and make it return a false negative.

Tinysnickers · 14/10/2021 09:53

Scientifist ffs now I sound like a 3 year old.
SCIENTIST!

Tinysnickers · 14/10/2021 09:55

I don't buy the lateral flows cross reacting theory. It doesn't explain why people eventually get a positive via post.
It doesn't explain why the graphs for pcr positives in the SW have been really damn weird since September.
I bet we will never get a proper answer from the govt though.

worriedatthemoment · 14/10/2021 10:28

Ds has had 2 positive lvt tests this morning ( did a second as 1st was feint and he was 5 mins late reading ) we are in the sw so going for a pcr - will see if positive or not
Only symptom he has is slight blocked nose , just a routine lvt this morning for college

JanglyBeads · 14/10/2021 10:28

Apparently the RF lab processed its one millionth sample a few days ago, was reported as at 300,000 when officially opened by Matt Hancock in August.

Louiselady500 · 14/10/2021 10:45

Yes the cold/mucus theory doesn’t make sense when people are going on to test positive via postal PCR test

3asAbird · 14/10/2021 11:19

Another updated article

I guess impacting on schools more as biggest rate of infection is in mostly unvaccinated schools children.

inews.co.uk/news/lateral-flow-tests-mystery-of-positive-rapid-tests-and-negative-pcrs-school-isolation-1245043

OP posts:
Karma1981 · 14/10/2021 11:47

Lateral flow tests may be more than 90% effective at detecting people at their most infectious, study finds
Scientists say they may know why some lateral flows are coming back negative before people receive positive PCR test results.

This is because it may mean someone is not at "peak transmissible stage" as lateral flow tests (LFTs) pick up when someone is at their most infectious, they claim.

They argued the tests are actually more accurate than previously thought and can't be compared directly to how PCRs work as they work in a different way.

A study in Clinical Epidemiology found the lateral flows are likely more than 80% effective at detecting any level of infection, and likely more than 90% effective at detecting those who are most infectious.

The experts say lateral flows detect material from the surface proteins of the virus and are very likely to give a positive result when someone is infectious.

Whereas PCR tests detect the genetic material which can be present for weeks after someone's no longer infectious.

Professor Michael Mina, from the Harvard School of Public Health, said: "There is a spectrum of infectious amounts of the COVID-19 virus and we show that LFTs are likely to detect cases 90-95% of the time when people are at their most infectious.

"The tests could achieve even 100% sensitivity when viral loads are at their peak and therefore catch nearly everyone who is currently a serious risk to public health.

"It is most likely that if someone's LFT is negative but their PCR is positive then this is because they are not at peak transmissible stage."

Professor Irene Petersen, from University College London's Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, added: "Previous studies comparing the reliability of lateral flow tests and PCR tests could be potentially misleading because a PCR test is a marker of having been infected at some point within a certain window of time and does not necessarily mean someone is infectious when testing positive."

They concluded the tests are a reliable public health tool in curbing coronavirus from spreading.

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19m ago
11:22
Cases and deaths surge to record highs in Russia
Russia has reported a record 986 coronavirus-related deaths in the last 24-hour period.

A further 31,299 new cases were also recorded – the country's highest one-day infection tally since the start of the pandemic.

The rising death toll has been blamed by the Kremlin on the slow vaccination campaign.

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37m ago
11:04
London's night Tube to return next month
Night services on the London Underground, which run on the weekends, have been suspended since March 2020 due to the pandemic.

They will return on the busy Central and Victoria lines throughout the night on Fridays and Saturdays from 27 November.

It comes after a petition was signed by tens of thousands of people calling for it to resume to help protect women and girls.

Transport for London (TfL) says the night Tube will return to the remaining lines as soon as possible.

Services will resume next month
Services will resume next month
PA

Transport bosses say the night service was suspended because drivers were needed to ensure the Tube service during the day stays as frequent as possible.

They added the Tube was also impacted by staff absences caused by the pandemic, at a time when passengers numbers dropped by over 90%.

London's mayor Sadiq Khan said restarting it now, after "the COVID pause", is because of its importance to "London's thriving night-time economy, to London's recovery and to the confidence and safety of everyone travelling home at night, particularly women and girls".

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37m ago
11:03
COVID around the world in pictures
Indonesia's resort island of Bali reopened today to foreign tourists following border closures during the pandemic.

But despite reopening, no international flights are currently scheduled for the island's Ngurah Rai international airport, with pictures from today showing it completely empty.

As we've been reporting, the UK is not on the current list of 19 countries which can enter.

The airport was deserted today
The airport was deserted today
Reuters

Bali has reopened to visitors from 19 countries
Bali has reopened to visitors from 19 countries
Reuters

An officer stands at Ngurah Rai International Airport
An officer stands at Ngurah Rai International Airport
Reuters

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1h ago
10:41
A&E waiting times of more than 12 hours at record levels
NHS England said a record 5,025 people had to wait more than 12 hours at A&Es in England in September this year from a decision to admit to actually being admitted.

This is up from 2,794 the month before and is the highest for any calendar month since records began in August 2010.

A total of 104,875 people waited at least four hours from the decision to admit to admission, which is the highest monthly total on record.

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1h ago
10:37
The NHS saw the busiest September on record this year, figures show
More than 1.39 million people were treated at major A&Es during September - the highest ever for the month, the NHS said.

Ambulances responded to a record 76,000 life-threatening call-outs, an increase of more than 20,000 on the previous high for September, while 999 took nearly one million calls in September.

NHS 111 also experienced record demand, with a call every seven seconds and a total of over 1.9 million calls across August.

Figures show staff carried out 1.1 million elective procedures in August, up by a third compared to the same period last year.

The same month saw 23,000 COVID patients admitted to hospital – 14 times as many compared to August last year.

Professor Stephen Powis, the NHS national medical director, said: "There is no doubt the NHS is running hot, with the highest ever number of patients seen in A&E in September, 14-times as many COVID patients in hospital compared to the same month last year and a record 999 ambulance calls."

He added it is "really important people do not delay seeking help from the NHS if they feel unwell".

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1h ago
10:33
Fancy a holiday in the Pacific nation of Palau?
A tiny Pacific nation has the world's highest percentage of people vaccinated against COVID-19, according to the Red Cross.

Fully 99% of Palau's population over 12 has had both shots of vaccine for the new coronavirus, according to government figures. This amounts to 16,152 people.

That puts Palau, an archipelago of 500 islands in the western Pacific Ocean, in the "top spot" of vaccinated nations, said the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC).

If you fancy getting there, the UK Foreign Office has dropped its advice against all but essential travel - but the islands have a very stiff PCR testing regime.

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1h ago
10:16
Flights back to 56% of 2019 levels, figures show
According to data from Eurocontrol, the seven-day average number of UK daily flights was 3,563 in the week ending 10 October.

This is 56% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019.

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1h ago
10:10
What the papers say
The changes being made to GP access make the front page of the Daily Mail today, which calls the shake-up a "face-to-face revolution".

Meanwhile, the Daily Mirror features a picture of Prime Minister Boris Johnson painting during his holiday to Spain, saying it has sparked "fury" from bereaved families of COVID victims.

For the rest of today's national newspapers, you can click the link below.

Thursday's national newspaper front pages
Sky News

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1h ago
09:58
NHS England says 9,754 people were waiting more than two years to start routine hospital treatment at the end of August 2021
Figures show this is up from 7,980 at the end of July, and is more than three times the 2,722 people who were waiting longer than two years in April.

Hospitals have been told by NHS England to eliminate all waits of more than two years by March 2022.

The data also shows 210,931 urgent cancer referrals were made by GPs in England in August. This is up 24% from the 170,036 reported in August last year.

The equivalent figure pre-pandemic for August 2019 was 200,317.

And urgent referrals where breast cancer symptoms were present, though not initially suspected, were up from 9,486 in August 2020 to 11,179 in August 2021.

Meanwhile, 232,140 people were admitted for routine treatment in hospitals in England in August 2021, up 49% from a year earlier (155,789).

However, this reflects lower-than-usual figures for August 2020, which were affected by the first wave of the pandemic.

The equivalent figure for before the pandemic, in August 2019, was 275,267.

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1h ago
09:47
Record high for the number of people waiting to start routine hospital treatment in England
NHS England figures show 5.7 million people were waiting to start routine hospital treatment at the end of August this year.

The number is the highest since records began in August 2007.

The data shows the number of people having to wait more than 52 weeks to start treatment stood at 292,138 in August 2021.

Although this is down slightly from 293,102 in the previous month, it is more than double the number waiting a year earlier, in August 2020, which was 111,026.

The figures also show there were nearly 370,000 patients who had been waiting more than six weeks for a key diagnostic test in August in England.

NHS England said 369,086 patients were waiting for one of 15 standard tests, including an MRI scan, non-obstetric ultrasound or gastroscopy.

Back in August 2020, the equivalent number waiting for more than six weeks was 472,517, while in August 2019 there were 42,926.

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2h ago
09:41
Technology to produce Sputnik V jab to be given to Hungary
Hungary will receive technology this year to produce Russia's Sputnik V COVID jab at a factory which is currently being built.

It would be the first concrete step towards making the vaccine in the European Union, which has not yet approved the jab as it is still being reviewed by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the European Medicines Agency.

China's Sinopharm vaccine is also due to be produced in the $193m (£140m) site in Hungary.

Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said: "There is a huge demand for the Russian vaccine around the world, thus Hungary has an economic interest in taking part in the production."

The announcement comes after Hungary's daily COVID cases went above 1,000 for the first time during the fourth wave of the pandemic, with 1,141 new infections.

Copy link
2h ago
09:20
Lateral flow tests may be more than 90% effective at detecting people at their most infectious, study finds
Scientists say they may know why some lateral flows are coming back negative before people receive positive PCR test results.

This is because it may mean someone is not at "peak transmissible stage" as lateral flow tests (LFTs) pick up when someone is at their most infectious, they claim.

They argued the tests are actually more accurate than previously thought and can't be compared directly to how PCRs work as they work in a different way.

A study in Clinical Epidemiology found the lateral flows are likely more than 80% effective at detecting any level of infection, and likely more than 90% effective at detecting those who are most infectious.

The experts say lateral flows detect material from the surface proteins of the virus and are very likely to give a positive result when someone is infectious.

Whereas PCR tests detect the genetic material which can be present for weeks after someone's no longer infectious.

Professor Michael Mina, from the Harvard School of Public Health, said: "There is a spectrum of infectious amounts of the COVID-19 virus and we show that LFTs are likely to detect cases 90-95% of the time when people are at their most infectious.

"The tests could achieve even 100% sensitivity when viral loads are at their peak and therefore catch nearly everyone who is currently a serious risk to public health.

"It is most likely that if someone's LFT is negative but their PCR is positive then this is because they are not at peak transmissible stage."

Professor Irene Petersen, from University College London's Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, added: "Previous studies comparing the reliability of lateral flow tests and PCR tests could be potentially misleading because a PCR test is a marker of having been infected at some point within a certain window of time and does not necessarily mean someone is infectious when testing positive."

They concluded the tests are a reliable public health tool in curbing coronavirus from spreading.

Tinysnickers · 14/10/2021 12:25

The bit about covid in the huge post above is the opposite of what the SW are seeing.

When my LFT lit up instantly, and I huge very very dark line, I was presumably super infectious BUT still got negative PCR.

Karma1981 · 14/10/2021 12:42

@Tinysnickers

The bit about covid in the huge post above is the opposite of what the SW are seeing.

When my LFT lit up instantly, and I huge very very dark line, I was presumably super infectious BUT still got negative PCR.

Sorry I did delete what was not relevant but for some reason it still put it all on there.

And yes I agree with you, does not make any sense.

FuckingFabulous · 14/10/2021 12:50

Yep.

8 weeks of positive lateral flow tests, never a positive PCR, starting back in may. My husband got positive AND negative results from the same test In August. Now today I've tested positive on lateral flow again and I am wondering what the damn point is of taking a PCR!

Itisasecret · 14/10/2021 13:11

Shock and surprise; postal PCR POSITIVE.

Strong positive on LTF, symptoms, negative on PCR drive through.

Something is wrong.

Tinysnickers · 14/10/2021 13:52

@itisasecret Welcome to the postal pcr positive club. Not somewhere anyone especially wants to be, but at least we knew for sure instead of thinking we are going mad.

Although now half wishing I'd not bothered because they seem to give a minimum 5 days isolating from the positive PCR regardless of how long since symptoms started, so I've now got 2 extra days isolating for my trouble. (was already day 8 when I tested) Angry

Itisasecret · 14/10/2021 13:54

[quote Tinysnickers]@itisasecret Welcome to the postal pcr positive club. Not somewhere anyone especially wants to be, but at least we knew for sure instead of thinking we are going mad.

Although now half wishing I'd not bothered because they seem to give a minimum 5 days isolating from the positive PCR regardless of how long since symptoms started, so I've now got 2 extra days isolating for my trouble. (was already day 8 when I tested) Angry[/quote]
I am glad because my child has another week at school. It is criminal to send her back to school mixing with all those adults and children when she’s at her most infectious. Legally, I could’ve done just that yesterday and today. Negative PCR after all.

worriedatthemoment · 14/10/2021 15:18

@Tinysnickers I thought that a pcr had to be done within a certain amount of times from
Symptoms ?

Tinysnickers · 14/10/2021 16:25

Yes, the latest is day 8. So if you test day 8 and get a positive, it seems they give you 5 days isolating, taking you to day 13.
Whereas if you just trust your instincts and do the 10 days from first symptom you just get 10 days.
Hence why I'm cross because the PCR booking website does not make it clear anywhere that getting a positive result from a day 7 test would equal an extra 2 days isolating. If I'd known that I'd have either retried a test sooner, or not bothered and just done my 10 days based on the lateral flows.

Tinysnickers · 14/10/2021 16:26

Basically if you do a PCR after day 5 and get a positive, you will end up with extra isolation days.

worriedatthemoment · 14/10/2021 16:34

@Tinysnickers although the 10 days is really 11 isn't it as it says 10 full days from day after symptoms started or test is what Im reading
Ds tested positive lvt this morning and slight snuffy nose so im assuming if pcr comes back positive from today - we go 10 full days from tomorrow