Concerns over visiting UK

[burningfromtheinside]

I'm due to visit UK to see my family soon, haven't been there for two years due to the pandemic. I live in Italy, in the north, in one of the places hit by COVID at the very beginning in Feb 2020, however despite this, I still personally don't know one person who has contracted it, not even the Delta, no one pre and post vaccination. I have a large network of friends and work in large company ( although we're still WFH) Reading here and hearing from plenty of friends in the UK, so many people seem to have had it there, despite being double vaccinated. I don't know if it's because masks are still mandatory here indoors, or that COVID passports are mandatory for nearly everything, but I can't understand why it's so different. This is making me concerned about coming to UK, I feel like I'll catch it there no matter what. The whole family are Pfizer double vaccinated ( most of Italy is Pfizered, could it be this?!) I wonder if a large proportion of people are not vaccinated there or if because the vaccine program was much earlier in the UK, most people are no longer covered ( I'm in my 50s and was vaccinated in June) Anyway does anyone, like me not know a single person who has had COVID or it is just rife there? I should add I also don't know anyone who is not vaccinated here.

In UK at moment there are barely any Covid precautions, most people are living life normally. Covid rates amongst school children are high, but most adults are vaccinated. Vaccinated adults are still catching Covid, but more mildly. The virus is probably circulating everywhere. So yes, if you come here you may catch it. You may also be “shocked” by the lack of precautions compared to some European countries. But what UK is doing seems to be working for the UK. I remember travelling to Switzerland Summer 2020 when UK had loads of precautions and had just come out of severe lockdown - it was a shock how normal things were in Switzerland compared to UK. Different countries are on different cycles/different thinking. Covid here is now endemic and almost accepted as part of life.

Sorry LFT are free to anybody at any time and a lot of people are testing twice a week with these for work.

PCR tests are free and accessible here in the uk. The tests used in the world in data links are for PCR and antigen tests only. The lateral flow tests that people here in the UK do at home are not counted. So currently the UK is doing 34 PCR (since the UK doesn't use antigen) tests per confirmed case and Italy 19. That's quite a big difference. I'm not saying it's safer here just that you may not be at any more risk here in terms on acquiring the virus

Hi OP. I'm in north Italy too - I think you can guess where . I'm planning on going to the UK for the first time in 2 years too. Unfortunately I know quite a few people who have had covid and a few who died from it. I'm double-jabbed (AZ not Pfizer) and am not too worried. I don't wear ffp2 masks unless I am on the bus.

So, interestingly the testing is different which obviously makes that numbers change. However this does not change the fact that no one here I know has (knowingly) had it and so many I know in the UK have.

I didn't realise tests were free in the UK except for travel though, that is great!

This thread has helped me put things into perspective, thank you posters.

@Thewiseoneincognito

OP my advice is prepare yourself for the jarring experience of a country rife with Covid and a majority of the public who seem to not care any more and take no precautions whatsoever. It’s madness.

No precautions whatsoever?

I must've imagined the fact that almost 45 million people are doubly vaccinated, then!

@incognito22333 good post and I agree - different countries are at different stages, not doing better/ worse. In the OPs country, suppression measures will eventually have to be relaxed or they choose to live with heavy handed interventions for a long time. There is a lot of covid in the UK but most people don't seem as anxious about it, and that's a good thing.

I’ve just landed back from Bologna, and I can tell you it doesn’t feel like there’s many restrictions there. Yes people wear masks and use hand gel. But restaurants are full, shops are full, and the nhs seems to be coping well. My mum had a bad biopsy mid august and had surgery a month later, the wait mostly due to the need to do exams to prep for it. Schools kids are still wearing masks, and having quite strict system of sitting at desk etc, but middle and high school are generally vaccinated, and they don’t seem to have quite the spike of cases we have in the U.K.

Palavah
Catching covid now for vaccinated people is more like catching a bad cold or maybe the flu. Are you so concerned about catching it?
This isn’t true.

Another North Italy here.. I went up to the Uk in august and even then masks seemed like an optional extra . I left my FP2 masks for my mother to use in crowded areas and I refused food from a take away when not even the kitchen staff were wearing masks. Whoeevr asked about testing . here if you show symptoms you go and be tested there is no self testing unless you purchase yourself . Or if you need a test for travel / entry into musuems / events you need a negative official test . We still wear masks inside everywhere and it is enforced .

Those people from countries where ffp2 masks are mandatory, does everyone have them fit tested? I thought they were no use unless that that was done?

As a country we seem to have arrived at a consensus (albeit not uniformly held) that daily cases of 30,000 plus and daily deaths in the hundreds are acceptable/preferable to mitigations. Plus we are behind other EU countries on vax rates (and have relied principally on AZ rather than Pfizer).

I can see that if you are coming from an EU country where mitigations are still in place that is going to jar. However, bear in mind that things vary from place to place within the UK. From what people say on MN, some areas in the UK seem to have abandoned masks and distancing completely, whereas where I live mask wearing is common/usual in shops and on public transport.

It does depend a bit where you are coming to the UK. In Scotland we still wear masks in shops and on public transport and high school kids still wear them at school. We still had a big spike coinciding with schools going back mid august and I know a lot of teens who have had it in the last couple of months, but I think the numbers are dropping slowly again.

@RunningOnFumes

"Plus we are behind other EU countries on vax rates"

This isn't true, see World in Data

Portugal ahead of UK.
Ireland marginally ahead.
Italy, France, UK broadly inline
Germany, Greece behind them

Overall UK 66% fully vaccinated, 72% partially.
EU 63%/67%

These are today's figures, I posted images of yesterday's figures earlier in the thread.

Re knowing people who have Covid - if you test lots of people you will find lots of Covid.

I've attached a screenshot of world in data - I've highlighted a few countries including Italy and the UK. You can see the UK looks as though it has high Covid rates - and it does. But it also has high testing rates and compared to e.g. Germany, the UK actually has a much lower positivity rate. High positivity rates and low testing numbers strongly imply you would find more people with Covid if you tested more.

In the UK we are doing over 1 million tests a day, and that excludes lateral flow tests which many people do at home and don't report.

Link here:ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-daily-tests-vs-daily-new-confirmed-cases-per-million?xScale=linear&country=GBR~ITA~USA~FRA~DEU

For the data.

Re knowing people who have Covid - if you test lots of people you will find lots of Covid.

I also think OP, you are unusual in not knowing anyone. I am in Northern Italy and know loads of people who have had it. My kids have all had positive cases in their classes too (although they didn't get it themselves).

@Cookerhood

Those people from countries where ffp2 masks are mandatory, does everyone have them fit tested? I thought they were no use unless that that was done?

Well exactly. Bet no-one has told the population you have to be clean shaven to pass a facefit test as well.

I'm not sure where you get those figures from, @Imfedupwithallofthis
Link to Our World in Data below shows that only Germany is lagging behind us. But the real point to my mind is that so many in the UK still believe that we are in a better position than other countries because of our vax status. We aren't.

ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA~NLD~ITA~ESP~MLT~BEL~PRT~DNK~IRL~European+Union

[quote RunningOnFumes]I'm not sure where you get those figures from, @Imfedupwithallofthis
Link to Our World in Data below shows that only Germany is lagging behind us. But the real point to my mind is that so many in the UK still believe that we are in a better position than other countries because of our vax status. We aren't.

ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA~NLD~ITA~ESP~MLT~BEL~PRT~DNK~IRL~European+Union[/quote]
Which age groups are vaccinated - we are pretty good in upper ages groups iirc

Not suggesting others aren’t, I haven’t checked. And yes some countries have done well even without Covid passports.

But the metric to watch is hospitalisation- we have Covid through schools atm so cases rise but if hospitalisation keeps decreasing then I think that is good

Then going back to vaccinated these groups will be immune for some time

Runningonfumes your data shows what Imfedupwithallofthis said . The EU average is clearly being dragged down by the poorer countries in eastern europe which you have not included.

I can't comment on what the average person thinks but the differences in percentage vaccinated in rich western countries that are all now awash with vaccine will now be down to the following three factors: 1) vaccine resistance and the level of compulsion used to get people to vaccinate, 2) how long the under 16s have been able to be vaccinated and if they get 1 or 2 jabs 3) how accurate the population figures are, we have accurate numbers of people vaccinated but the percentage of population is using GP lists which are known to include quite a few dead people, to balance that there are probably some people not on a GP list but in a country where healthcare is free that will probably be very low.

I'm not sure why people are still being down on AZ? It's a fantastic vaccine with poor PR. Our 12 week interval has been proven to be more effective too. Of course it left people only partially protected for longer which wasn't great once delta came along.

@JaninaDuszejko the table of data shows the individual countries to which imfedup referred (plus Canada for some strange reason!). I wouldn't describe 74% fully vaxxed (Ireland) vs 66% (UK) as "marginally ahead" but perhaps you would. Anyway, the figures speak for themselves.

AZ is less effective than mRNA vaccines such as Pfizer and Moderna. That has been proven, internationally. The 12 week interval wasn’t adopted by any other country either, after exhaustive studies.

The facts you state have been proven, by which international medical and scientific body? These ‘facts’ have been published in the UK, after being peer-reviewed by whom?

AZ has played an amazing role in the vaccination process but the truth is that most western countries - EU and USA for example - have only used it in tiny percentages.

In Germany, we have 45m people vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna, 3.5m with AZ and 3m with the Janssen vaccine. The figures in most Western European countries are very similar.

The UK has relied heavily on AZ, which is somewhat less effective in protecting against illness and transmission. It’s still a good vaccine, of course, but it’s also playing a role in why the UK is seeing so much transmission even now.

Other restrictions, and the lack of a full vaccination for under 18s, are obviously also playing a role. A lot of factors are contributing.

I'm in London zone 2, 61 years old, CEV and immunosuppressed. I've had three jabs including booster. I only know three people who've had CV, all before vax programme started, none hospitalised. I've recently been in a couple of pubs, several restaurants, a theatre (vaccination proof or negative test required), on buses and trains, lots of shops. I've got my 18 year old living at home, recently finished college, sees friends regularly, and I visit my 26 year old son who is severely disabled and lives in a residential placement (care home for younger people). We do LFT tests every time we visit him (free of charge). In theory we should be very scared but our daily lives don't make us feel that way. I report to and follow the Zoe app and regularly listen to More or Less, BBC Radio 4's statistics programme

I don't know anyone who's had it.