1000+ in ventilator beds already & school return with no household isolation

[RumblyMumbly]

Number of people in ventilator beds 1,014 on 31/08/21

It has been a steady / manageable rise since restrictions lifted in mid May when there were 125 patients in ventilator beds & while obviously awful for the people affected and their families this means the NHS has coped while there has been a lot of Covid cases

Does anyone else feel we may be at the tipping point? Schools in England mostly return this week for Autumn term.

If we compare with last years school return there were only 71 ventilator beds occupied on 31/08/20. Yes, we now have 64% of the total population double vaccinated which puts us in a far better situation than last year when the population had no protection. However, we had household isolations this time last year for positive cases, this year other household members of a positive case will be attending school and workplaces alongside everyone else and generally people will begin meeting indoors much more over the next few months.

Purpose of my post - nervousness about what will happen next...I don't want schools to close at all, children have already had 2 years of disrupted education. But to give my own personal experience - obviously other peoples differ - secondary remote learning can work if absolutely necessary (full schedule of lessons / homework) but primary remote learning (1hr lesson per day) did not work AT ALL & the vast majority of primary aged children are not ready to become independent learners while parents are in an impossible situation as they can't work and moonlight as a teacher.

I hope SAGE / the Government are watching the figures very closely and if we need a circuit breaker in October to keep the NHS manageable they act fast.

@Toddlerteaplease

My trust has 136 Covid patients.. last spring they had 450. Not getting to Worried!

You are two doublings from January peak numbers again.

The last two doublings took about 9-10 weeks.

(In summertime, with the schools shut for most of it, but with several huge mixing events happening outdoors.)

For the next 9 -10 weeks there will be thousands of medium and large mixing events happening indoors, every week.

I'm not "worried" but I understand what's likely to happen.

Last winter was Alpha, no vaccines.

This one has vaccines, but Delta to contend with. And 28% of the population completely unvaccinated.

@beentoldcomputersaysno

We could choose a better policy that doesn't leave thousands of kids unnecessarily harmed. What we already know about neurological impacts and long covid is scary enough, but some people just refer to the initial 'sniffles' of a few days for lots of kids. Long covid doesn't work like that though, neither do the neurological impacts - they occur in mild and severe cases. I think sending kids in without even addressing non-intrusive impacts such as ventilation is sickening. We can 'live' with it and have a policy to reduce risk. We don't know long term impacts of organ damage through covid etc. Vaccines are great, but they are not enough on their own. Kids don't even have vaccine.

Yes.

Covid spreads like a respiratory virus but it's a vascular, inflammatory and neurological disease.

One that we don't understand the long term effects of, and we won't understand them for decades.

Like with HIV, Zika and Polio. The worst part could come a lot later.

Meanwhile government policy is infecting our children willy-nilly with a new and largely unknown pathogen.

I mentioned the Scotsnet board in relation to criticism of the Scottish Government. There is plenty on there, naturally really. Noone gives their own government an easy ride.

I think the vaccibe just reduces your risk to that of a younger unvaccinated individual but does not remove risk entirely.
theconversation.com/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671

[quote Sugarandtime]@Andrea87
This is from the Public Health England technical briefing report from the 6th August. It does show deaths within 28 days of a positive test result and if the number of people who had no injections, 1 injection, 2 injections etc[/quote]
Thank you for this information, interesting to see.

@RumblyMumbly good news on treatment, hoping more and more come out over time.

Re: long covid - Info on what symptoms to look out for in kids, ventilation in schools, long covid in kids, links to studies etc in here if anyone wants it.

0eb22407-fe51-4639-b371-93cf38b61dd9.filesusr.com/ugd/c54868_63ef0f2b69ac481aa67c4f8bfcf6ac59.pdf

@TableFlowerss

Contrary to your claim that you have "heard it all", it is clear you have heard very little and indeed know very little.

Where have you been that you "know" addiction (whether food, alcohol, non prescription drug) is "a choice". They are treated by MH professionals in tandem with physical health professionals, it's know as dual diagnosis treatment.

Let's face it, our esteemed government doesn't actually care about ordinary British citizens dying of Covid. They've only done what they did in the face of huge public pressure and outright rebellion by schools in the first place, and it's unlikely that will happen again as most of the British working population simply do not have the native economic resilience to survive isolation from others. I see there's another variant arrived in the UK, this time from South America. It should at least be possible to stop these new variants arriving by now if anyone was in the least bit interested in trying.

I’m in Scotland and case numbers here have increased significantly since restrictions relaxed and the schools went back. Worth noting restriction here relaxed less than in England.

I’ve seen a recent report from the head of one of the Scottish Health Boards. They are very, very worried about the rise in cases and hospital admissions.

Add to that the Mu variant is showing signs of immune escape. So having had it before or having been vaccinated might not offer the same level of protection many assume.

[quote BeenAroundTheWorldAndIII]@Sugarandtime
So from your graph does that mean the vaccine isn't working in relation to deaths in the

@NannyAndJohn

We're in a worse position than we were last year but our government still have their heads in the fucking sand.

It's beggar's belief.

No we are not. Vaccinations make a complete difference. Stop spreading panic to already anxious people. It's quite disgusting that you appear to love stirring up people's anxiety. Get a nicer hobby.

[quote 50ShadesOfCatholic]@TableFlowerss

Contrary to your claim that you have "heard it all", it is clear you have heard very little and indeed know very little.

Where have you been that you "know" addiction (whether food, alcohol, non prescription drug) is "a choice". They are treated by MH professionals in tandem with physical health professionals, it's know as dual diagnosis treatment.[/quote]
Absolute rubbish!!

Not all people that are obese have MH problems. You can’t attribute enjoying too many calories with not enough exercise to having issues. It’s a kick in the teeth to those with real MH issues….

@Refreshpage, unfortunately I'd argue that school communities are most definitely in a worse position than this time last year. There are fewer mitigations, everything is open, household contacts don't need to isolate and we have delta. We have also normalised the rates of death and long covid. That's not fearmongering, that's the situation. Wish it weren't so. I'm meant to protect my kids.

@Onandoff

Where I work every single intubated patient is a vaccine refuser.

EVERY SINGLE ONE.

We can’t justify punishing children to protect adults who have chosen not to protect themselves.

Exactly.

@TableFlowerss waaay off topic but who are you to define what is or isn’t a mental health issue? Obesity is often linked with disordered eating and contributes to a significant proportion of peoples failed attempts to get their weight under control.

Generally addictions (including over eating) are linked to mental health problems and attempts at self-medicating to function with a variation of diagnosed and undiagnosed disorders.

Your views belong in the dark ages frankly.

[quote beentoldcomputersaysno]@Refreshpage, unfortunately I'd argue that school communities are most definitely in a worse position than this time last year. There are fewer mitigations, everything is open, household contacts don't need to isolate and we have delta. We have also normalised the rates of death and long covid. That's not fearmongering, that's the situation. Wish it weren't so. I'm meant to protect my kids. [/quote]
I agree. I can’t get my head around the current policy but all we can do is cross our fingers and hope it is okay because there is nothing concrete out there to offer factual reassurance.

@Refreshpage

Our reality is what it is.

The vaccines have reduced the percentage of covid cases that need to go to hospital to just under 2% of cases.

And vaccines have reduced the percentage of covid cases who die to about 0.3%

If cases were low we would be in a pretty good position.

But they're not.

All the time the government allow the virus free rein to spread largely unrestricted our situation will get worse.

Allowing millions of cases leads to thousands of hospital admissions and thousands of deaths.

[quote Cornettoninja]@TableFlowerss waaay off topic but who are you to define what is or isn’t a mental health issue? Obesity is often linked with disordered eating and contributes to a significant proportion of peoples failed attempts to get their weight under control.

Generally addictions (including over eating) are linked to mental health problems and attempts at self-medicating to function with a variation of diagnosed and undiagnosed disorders.

Your views belong in the dark ages frankly.[/quote]
And you’re in the camp of playing the MH card for every situation and every scenario, which dilutes the seriousness of those that do genuinely do have MH issues.

[quote beentoldcomputersaysno]@Refreshpage, unfortunately I'd argue that school communities are most definitely in a worse position than this time last year. There are fewer mitigations, everything is open, household contacts don't need to isolate and we have delta. We have also normalised the rates of death and long covid. That's not fearmongering, that's the situation. Wish it weren't so. I'm meant to protect my kids. [/quote]
My cev father had covid, he has cancer and diabetes. He was fine. I worried myself sick.
A fit young person will sail through it and most barely notice they have it

@TableFlowerss whatever gets you through the day.

[quote Cornettoninja]@TableFlowerss whatever gets you through the day.[/quote]
Pointing out bollocks when I see it….

@Refreshpage I'm glad your father was ok. I've also known elderly who have been ok. I also know of people who were young that are still struggling now. It's a strange disease and there's still much to learn. Many kids will hopefully shrug it off, many kids won't. Whilst the odds of long covid are lower than them not getting long covid, they are still too high in my opinion. As cases are high, there is more chance of long covid. Government should have sorted out ventilation in schools ages ago.

Pointing out bollocks when I see it

In your (amateur) opinion.

When was the last time you were wrong about something?

@Cornettoninja

Pointing out bollocks when I see it

In your (amateur) opinion.

When was the last time you were wrong about something?

I don’t know why you don’t just let it drop?

You said that obesity is down to MH issues. I disagree. I agree sometimes it is, absolutely, but not every person that is obese has MH issues.

Obesity is NOT always associated with MH. If you genuinely think that is is incorrect, then you have a very warped view of reality and extreme poor understanding of MH.

Put it this way, not everyone that enjoys an alcoholic drink is an alcoholic. Not everyone that is obese has MH problem! Some do but certainly not all.

I don’t know why you don’t just let it drop?

Because you won’t and you’re actually quite offensive about it.

You said that obesity is down to MH issues. I disagree

Did I say that? Did I say that every case of obesity is down to MH issues?

I agree sometimes it is, absolutely, but not every person that is obese has MH issues

That’s not what you posted though is it? You posted that the notion obesity was treated with input from MH professionals as a duel diagnosis was, and I quote, ‘absolute rubbish’ and ‘a kick in the teeth to anyone with real MH issues’.

That’s what you posted. It’s not up to me to know what you think beyond the words you post on screen. If you think ‘sometimes’ obesity/addiction is a consequence of MH issues maybe don’t make sweeping, offensive statements to contrary.

I’m done now anyway, there’s no point in talking to you beyond what I’ve already posted and I’ve contributed to the derailment enough.