Dr John's "Important Announcement" - we are all going to get it.

[vera99]

I've been following 'Dr' John since the start and always found him to be informative and useful. In his latest video, he has changed his tone somewhat.

If he's right, and the consensus is now that herd immunity is impossible, because the vaccine can't prevent transmission, then that's obviously very significant in terms of what the policy will be from now on.

This presumably also assumes that it's not going to be possible to 'tweak' the vaccine such that it can prevent onwards transmission.

He doesn't really talk about what happens if we get to a point where the health service can't deal with hospitalisation numbers.

Bring on the boosters, please.

Higher population immunity through infection is one of the best theories for why England has lower covid rates than Scotland at the moment. Similar vaccination rates but Scotland has always had harsher restrictions and kept them in place for longer, so comparatively fewer people got infected before. Now the virus has got more people to spread to even with 'basic public health measures' still in place. So England's cases are high but steady while Scotland's are absolutely through the ceiling.

I don’t think the UKs number of deaths and hospitalizations, let alone long Covid at any time in the pandemic are anything to be proud of!

I really don’t know why anyone thinks that natural immunity is any good thing?

Natural immunity means that unvaccinated people have been exposed to the virus. And in a pandemic a novel dangerous virus at that. And some have been seriously ill and died.

It does not prevent deaths or illness!
It is the result of exposure which results in death and illness…

Very tired of explaining… !

Also you all do realise that England case rates are doubling every 10 days at the moment…

So no not ‘steady’!

Spanish flu is still with us or as it should be American flu.

@NCBlossom

Also you all do realise that England case rates are doubling every 10 days at the moment…

So no not ‘steady’!

Eh? The fuck you on about. England’s cases today were 22,022. Ten days ago, on the 26th, they were 27,417, ten days before that, on the 16th, 23,171. Where the hell have you got doubling every ten days from?

@NCBlossom

Also you all do realise that England case rates are doubling every 10 days at the moment…

So no not ‘steady’!

Doubling every ten days based on the last week. Before that they were falling. They have been wobbling up and down over the last month with no sustained trend in either direction, so

@NCBlossom

It's because the ones being killed and disabled. It's Other People™.

I really don’t know why anyone thinks that natural immunity is any good thing?

But nobody has said “natural immunity is better than vaccines, yay let’s all just go for that,” have they? So I’m not sure what it is you are arguing against?

What is it you think people are saying?

@GoldenOmber my original post about natural immunity was in response to several posts saying things like…

Boris Johnson got it right in making natural immunity a part of the England strategy

Or

Natural immunity is how we got rid of diseases in the past as a strategy

Natural immunity is an important strategy in tackling Covid-19

Natural immunity is what our strategy would have been if we didn’t have vaccines.

Etc etc etc etc

Lots of posts saying that natural immunity is some kind of action for ‘tackling’ Covid 19.

None of the posts wanted to admit that natural immunity = doing nothing.

Are you? No idea but you piled on anyway!

I’m not ‘piling on’

Natural immunity is how other pandemics have ended. It is. It is a pretty horrific way for pandemics to end, because it will cause massive amounts of death along the way, but it has eventually made all of them end.

If we hadn’t had vaccines, it would have been what happened with this one too. Thank God we do have vaccines. ‘Natural immunity’ is still going to be a part of how this one ends, though, because some people will be immune due to having caught covid before they were vaccinated. Admitting this doesn’t mean I want people to get disabled and die! It’s just a fact of how illnesses work.

I think the confusion here may be that to you, “natural immunity” = “a national policy of letting illness spread and kill loads of people and not waiting for vaccines”.

I think other people are meaning “natural immunity” = “immunity produced through infection, not vaccination.”

I wasn’t saying that natural immunity doesn’t happen.

My main point was that natural immunity is NOT a strategy without vaccination.

My other main point is that natural immunity is complex and does not necessarily end a virus - such a smallpox. It ebbs and flows and is devastating over many many years.

My other main point is that natural immunity is complex and does not necessarily end a virus

No, it doesn’t, but mostly neither does vaccination. Covid is going to ebb and flow and continue to infect and kill people too. Just hopefully a lot fewer than it’s managed to do so far.

No but vaccinations save lives.

And vaccination eradicated smallpox.

Of course vaccines save lives! Nobody is denying vaccines save lives! Honestly it feels like you’re ignoring 90% of what people are actually saying because you read the words “natural immunity” and made your mind up about what people must mean if they’re saying it.

We eliminated smallpox by a massive global effort over decades. We can probably do the same with some others, with great difficulty and over a long time. It is very unlikely that covid will ever be one of them, though.

I think I read somewhere the government could 'live' with 50k deaths a year i.e a very bad flu season. The question will be could flu come back with a vengeance and be in tandem.

Dr John today is reporting from others that we are in the end game and delta is "killing itself"

"Professor Monica Gandhi, University of California
I truly, truly think we are in the endgame
The cases will start plummeting in mid- to late September
they mutate quickly, at a cost to themselves
we’re sort of at the peak of the pandemic because the delta variant is causing immunity like crazy
Delta comes in like a hurricane, but it leaves a lot of immunity in its wake , we’re going to get it
Unless you just sit in your room, you’re going to get it in your nose
but at least in this country, it will be manageable."

[quote vera99]I think I read somewhere the government could 'live' with 50k deaths a year i.e a very bad flu season. The question will be could flu come back with a vengeance and be in tandem.

Dr John today is reporting from others that we are in the end game and delta is "killing itself"

"Professor Monica Gandhi, University of California
I truly, truly think we are in the endgame
The cases will start plummeting in mid- to late September
they mutate quickly, at a cost to themselves
we’re sort of at the peak of the pandemic because the delta variant is causing immunity like crazy
Delta comes in like a hurricane, but it leaves a lot of immunity in its wake , we’re going to get it
Unless you just sit in your room, you’re going to get it in your nose
but at least in this country, it will be manageable."

[/quote] Covid is a global problem. Many countries have had little exposure and millons remain unvaccinated. It's far from over for many.

@bumbleymummy

Anti-vaccers, well, good luck to them as it's their choice, but little sympathy if they get really ill/die.

Nice. Maybe we should stop feeling any sympathy towards people who die from obesity, smoking and alcohol related illnesses. I mean, it was their choice to keep eating/not exercising and keep smoking/drinking, right?

Btw, if someone decides not to have the coronavirus vaccine, they aren’t necessarily “anti-vaxx”

Could not have said this better.

We sent some our limited supply to Australia...

Our supply is anything but limited. We had issues back in April-May but starting from June our vaccine supply has been outstripping demand. Right now we can probably compete for the top spot of the leading vaccine hoarder with the US.

Based on the leaked export information from the EU, we have got 22 million doses of unused mRNA vaccines. We also keep receiving weekly deliveries. It is sufficient to vaccinate teenagers AND to offer boosters to vulnerable groups.

Agree we have tonnes of supply. That is definitely not an issue. They can’t give it away at the moment!
I think natural immunity is playing a role in London at least. We have pretty woeful vaccine rates, probably the worst in the country. My own London borough is just under 65% single jabbed which is not great. Lack of supply not the problem!
And yet cases and hospitalisation are steady for the last month. Where I work we have fluctuated around the 80 - 85 Covid patients in, about 3 a day but same number leave, very low deaths. For ages now.
I was wondering if high natural immunity was playing a role. It was estimated that 30% of Londoners had antibodies end of last year so even if many of these people have also had vaccine, some won’t have and could be adding to our overall immunity.
It may also be the population of London is below official stats too.

Just wondering what happens if delta does burn out and another varient takes delta dominant place..
Does immunity level vary compared to mutation and varient?
So if you had Kent you dident get delta?

@wintertravel1980

We sent some our limited supply to Australia...

Our supply is anything but limited. We had issues back in April-May but starting from June our vaccine supply has been outstripping demand. Right now we can probably compete for the top spot of the leading vaccine hoarder with the US.

Based on the leaked export information from the EU, we have got 22 million doses of unused mRNA vaccines. We also keep receiving weekly deliveries. It is sufficient to vaccinate teenagers AND to offer boosters to vulnerable groups.

22 million doses (btw was that before or after we sent 4 million to vaccinate Australian 12-15 year olds?). But about 4-6 million 12-15 year olds AND 32 million vulnerable and/or health and social care workers in need of a booster jab (that figure doesn't included all vulnerable as it excludes the 40-49 year olds). Looks like a shortfall to me. But perhaps you're right, and if we're getting weekly supplies, we do have enough. So then there's no excuse not to do as other countries are doing and vaccinate our 12+ and follow WHO advice on giving boosters to all CV.

sashagabadon
London isn't doing well at all. Obviously with 9 million people, the reporting of cases per 100,000 artificially makes it look lower in London, but the reality isn't so rosy.

There's currently over 1000 Covid patients in London hospitals.

30% estimated to have had antibodies last year. How long do those antibodies last? And antibodies to which strain? Presumably not Delta, and definitely not Mu.

30% estimated to have had antibodies last year. How long do those antibodies last?

Once again: immunity is not mainly about antibodies. It's mainly about t-cells and b-cells, which "remember" (long term) how to kick out particular viruses (probably regardless of "strain").

looks like a shortfall to me
22 million doses is far from a shortfall. The challenge will be to use them before they expire, hence why 4 million are being exported to Australia.

32 million vulnerable and/or health and social care workers in need of a booster jab
They haven't decided yet who will need boosters. It's unlikely to be 32 million, in fact it's likely to be a much smaller number more strategically targeted.

@NCBlossom

No but vaccinations save lives.

And vaccination eradicated smallpox.

We know that. That's why the government (and others) have invested millions in developing, buying and administering vaccines. However these vaccines are not 100% efficient, and we are unable to vaccinate 100% of the population, leaving quite a large number of potentially unprotected people. Naturally acquired immunity will protect some of those people, especially children.