Dr John's "Important Announcement" - we are all going to get it.

[vera99]

I've been following 'Dr' John since the start and always found him to be informative and useful. In his latest video, he has changed his tone somewhat.

If he's right, and the consensus is now that herd immunity is impossible, because the vaccine can't prevent transmission, then that's obviously very significant in terms of what the policy will be from now on.

This presumably also assumes that it's not going to be possible to 'tweak' the vaccine such that it can prevent onwards transmission.

He doesn't really talk about what happens if we get to a point where the health service can't deal with hospitalisation numbers.

Bring on the boosters, please.

I found this really interesting. Basically with infections and vaccine immunity, eventually our bodies will cope with it much like other coronaviruses such as the common cold.

fb.watch/7LD7cDKXEp/

[quote Snaffletrousers]I found this really interesting. Basically with infections and vaccine immunity, eventually our bodies will cope with it much like other coronaviruses such as the common cold.

fb.watch/7LD7cDKXEp/[/quote]
That was always the most likely outcome. It was widely discussed in the research community during the earliest stages. Unfortunately, the media outlets never really picked up on that, opting for the more sensationalist direction instead.

The problem has always been that the route to a stage when it's endemic and perhaps ultimately more like a cold is not a comfortable one. Before vaccines, and to some extent even with them, it involves quite a lot of illness and death.

Humanity as a whole has never been in danger from covid so far. Individuals on the other hand definitely have been.

@StormTreader

"Apparently there are about 45,000 common cold virus cases each day but no one really reports or tests for this or cares."

The difference here is that very few people are hospitalised or left with lasting effects from a cold.

They would have done when those viruses were novel though, in fact many would have died. It takes time to build resistance on a population level. We're very lucky that we have vaccines to make the process less painful.

It's increasingly believed that the 1890 "Russian flu" pandemic was in fact another coronavirus pandemic. That coronavirus is still with us--it causes colds, basically. But just like COVID19, it was pretty lethal (a million deaths in a global population of about 1.5 billion) when it first entered the human population, probably from cattle.

COVID will be the same way a few years from now.

I think the biggest issue for the next decade is the question of how to get the really frightened people to switch off the panic buttons in their heads.

In a way, it was easier back in the days when we didn't know what actually caused pandemics. The pandemic would die down, and people would assume that whatever was causing it had just "gone away." Now we're hyper aware of the virus, the numbers, watching every mutation in real time. Because the virus will always be there and we'll know it's there, it will be hard for some people to shift away from the "pandemic mindset." It's intuitively hard for many people to grasp that the same virus can be pretty dangerous at one point but then just "something you have to live with" a bit later on.

I do think many people will struggle to get their heads around the fact we’ll all probably get Covid at some point and maybe a few times.

^ I am one of those people. In fact just reading this thread is genuinely like a penny dropping moment. I have been living waiting for Covid to "end".

Well, we’re still all waiting for the response to covid - restrictions/daily reporting of cases etc - to end. I think they’re going to linger for a while.

it was always said that many people would get it and most people would be ok

My friend (yes a real one) works in the care sector. Outbreaks are still occurring and a not insignificant number of staff are on their second bout of covid.

Basically with infections and vaccine immunity, eventually our bodies will cope with it much like other coronaviruses such as the common cold

Historically, that's how pandemics work. We are lucky to have vaccines. Vaccination will help to keep it in check- just like other viruses we vaccinate against.

not an expert in virology, but a history buff

I wonder how countries such as China will deal with the way this has panned out? When their strategy was to stamp it out. And other countries in Asia? I guess their response has been similar to when the SARS outbreak happened. The goal was to stamp it out. They had very good test and trace etc. Where does a global endemic virus leave their strategy?

After all the doubt, fear, death and confusion surely we are now at a clear point at last.

The vaccines work. The vast vast majority of those double vaccinated are either immune or if they do catch covid are not hospitalised, and actually further protected through wild infection.

Covid is endemic, like influenza and the common cold, its not going away.

Also like influenza it can kill the vulnerable and old. However the vaccine reduces risk substantially even amongst the vulnerable.

Vaccine plus wild infection offers supreme protection against serious illness later in life.

Sadly, those with suppressed immune systems are going to continue to be vulnerable.

Covid 19 will be with us like colds, pneumonia and influenza for ever. Rarely a problem for the vaccinated and young but dangerous for the old and the immune system vulnerable.

Get vaccinated, get on with living.

If you don't get vaccinated accept the consequences - few if young and fit, serious if old and obese.

agree Alec, that's where I am too.
It's interesting that there are more and more reports that catching it naturally in the wild so to speak is no longer considered a terrible thing (by some) and may even be a "good thing" (after vaccination tbc).
Maybe that's where we'll settle in a few years time once all the data is in and different responses have been analyzed.
Catching it in childhood could even be considered desirable (although as so many kids are asymptomatic they may never know)

@Delatron

I wonder how countries such as China will deal with the way this has panned out? When their strategy was to stamp it out. And other countries in Asia? I guess their response has been similar to when the SARS outbreak happened. The goal was to stamp it out. They had very good test and trace etc. Where does a global endemic virus leave their strategy?

Vaccination, like everyone else. Once everyone who wants to be vaccinated has been, and providing that is a reasonably high percentage of the population (and on-going I would assume vaccinations and treatments will be improved), they go back to living normally because the virus no longer causes huge problems for the health service or industry.

I believe Australia (or at least NSW?) is planning to open back up at 70% vaccinated.

Yes that’s Aus/NZ strategy. I really hope they speed up with the vaccinations. Talking to friends in Melbourne and they’re struggling- homeschooling now until Dec.

It’s all very quiet in China. So Australia are in lockdown until a decent vaccination rate. What’s going on in other countries that followed the suppression/ zero Covid model?
There’s a tough hump to get over as you need to accept a significant percentage of your population will get Covid. Which is a big about turn.

@vera99 it's here!
We have delta spreading, can't remember how long we have been in lockdown now 11 weeks maybe? Victoria has just abandoned zero Covid yesterday.

We will be vaccinating 12+

Some states QLD are calling for under 12s to be vaccinated before reopening

We are not modifying our behaviours anymore. 60 and double vaxxed we will go about our lives as we did per-pandemic. Indeed if boosters are not going to be offered to most then are potential benefits in catching it now whilst the double vaxxed immunity is still strong rather than say January. The 100 Club beckons....

Literally everyone I've spoken to about it in the last couple of months has said what he's saying. You'd have to be pretty naive to think otherwise.

It's here to stay and everyone will get it at some point, unless a hermit.
Vaccination massively reduces the risk of serious illness
Those who can't be vaccinated will be vulnerable so we should continue with some distancing and hygiene to protect them.
Anti-vaccers, well, good luck to them as it's their choice, but little sympathy if they get really ill/die.

Anti-vaccers, well, good luck to them as it's their choice, but little sympathy if they get really ill/die.

Nice. Maybe we should stop feeling any sympathy towards people who die from obesity, smoking and alcohol related illnesses. I mean, it was their choice to keep eating/not exercising and keep smoking/drinking, right?

Btw, if someone decides not to have the coronavirus vaccine, they aren’t necessarily “anti-vaxx”

What’s going on in other countries that followed the suppression/ zero Covid model?

Scotland still seems to be chasing the pot at the end of the rainbow.
Masks are still a thing, secondary kids still need to wear them, noises about another lockdown, closing pubs early, before furlough ends at the end of the month.
Glasgow / Lanarkshire currently have highest covid rates in Europe.

Someone pointed it out about a year ago Boris had lower restrictions in England to allow some covid spread, build natural immunity, as there was no guarantee that the vaccines would work.

Scotland had the longest and harshest restrictions, softplay closed for over a year and now we are coming to the end of financial support and hitting winter and little natural immunity.
Just super, let's hope we get through winter without the NHS completely collapsing.

It will probably kill some people to admit that Boris may have been right.

I believe Australia (or at least NSW?) is planning to open back up at 70% vaccinated.

No, some restrictions may be released. That's all.

Re China: There is currently a bit of debate going on in China (well, insofar as debate is actually allowed in China at all) about how/when to turn public policy around.

The CCP has spent a lot of time crowing about how effective China has been compared with the west, so it's going to be tough to have to shift gears and basically tell people to live with the virus. If they want to have as small an exit wave as possible, they'll also have to vax everyone with a more effective vaccine as a booster. The Sino vaccines appear to be much less effective than Pfizer, AZ et al.

It will probably kill some people to admit that Boris may have been right.

I don't think COVID's ultimate endemicity exactly proves that BJ's policies were just great! Theoretically, the best outcomes would probably be, close the borders and do zero covid till vaccine, then vax everyone quickly, then open things up and tell people to live with it. Few countries seem to have managed this in practice, though!

@Kokeshi123

Irt this part -

Someone pointed it out about a year ago Boris had lower restrictions in England to allow some covid spread, build natural immunity, as there was no guarantee that the vaccines would work.

I'm not sure why people thought covid would one day be gone? As long as it has a host it will survive.

I'm 51. Based on average life expectancy I could live to 89. I've got no doubt that at some point during the next 38 years I will get covid.