Dr John's "Important Announcement" - we are all going to get it.

[vera99]

I've been following 'Dr' John since the start and always found him to be informative and useful. In his latest video, he has changed his tone somewhat.

If he's right, and the consensus is now that herd immunity is impossible, because the vaccine can't prevent transmission, then that's obviously very significant in terms of what the policy will be from now on.

This presumably also assumes that it's not going to be possible to 'tweak' the vaccine such that it can prevent onwards transmission.

He doesn't really talk about what happens if we get to a point where the health service can't deal with hospitalisation numbers.

Bring on the boosters, please.

that scenario is the definately best with good vaccines which we do luckily have.
That wasn't so clear cut back in March 2020 and indeed many commentators including Vallance and Whitty though a working vaccine was a couple of years away minimum, some reports said 5 years , others said never!
So we'd be in a holding pattern of releasing restrictions in Spring / Summer and letting covid spread and then harsher restrictions Autumn / Winter type of situation for 2-3 years imo.

So Boris would have been right.
Luckily the vaccine doves were wrong but they could just as easily have been right

That would have been terrible for the UK/ Europe with ongoing lower level restrictions and peaks and troughs in spread for 2021 and 2022 and pretty disastrous for Covid Zero countries who would be facing years of isolation right now with intermittent extremely harsh lockdowns as cases popped up which they constantly would.

Thank god for vaccines!

We now have the new MU variant of Interest. We have been here before!

I suspect they don't want to continue funding such huge numbers of tests plus the system cannot keep up with high demand.

I personally think they should continue to test as numbers are important for various reasons: to predict hospital surges, allow CEV people to make relevant decisions and to track variants.

I also believe that as long as any covid restrictions are in place such as masks, travel restrictions or vaccine passports we should be entitled to all the information and numbers that justify these measures.

Will we reach omega and start back at alpha?

I'm struggling to see why the usual names scream "doommongering" when people say they are scared of rising numbers, yet its perfectly okay to say that everyone is going to catch covid at some point?

ANYTHING could happen with this virus. It could mutate tomorrow into a far less transmissible strain. Its not a given that everyone will catch it at all.

@containsnuts I suspect you are right. That mass testing will come to an end soon.
They also won't want kids who are only ill for a few days being of school for a week. Kids have had enough disruption in the last two years.

There are thousands of variants of coronavirus but we only hear about a couple which are concerning to the vaccines.

It's mutating all the time though. Any mutation that makes it less transmissible will fail in evolutionary terms won't it?

It could mutate tomorrow into a far less transmissible strain

Which would make minimal impact and die out quickly.

Only a more transmissible strain would be able to displace delta.

I know a lot of people here are saying "Surely this is obvious?" Thing is, I think it's NOT obvious to a lot of people.

My social media groups are still full of people saying things like "Why can't they just do a proper lockdown and sort this out once and for all?" (I'm not in the UK, but I expect there are still some people like this over there too). They really do seem to think that we can just get rid of the virus if we are "good" for a while, or something.

Incidence of reinfection is very low. Incidence of more severe illness during reinfection is even lower.

Anecdotally I know quite a few people who have had it twice after vaccine and had worse second time; currently my best friend who didn't even know she had it the first time, this time she's been really ill.

That being said I have worked through this whole thing, been in contact with many positive cases and so far haven't had it. And thats being tested twice a week minimum LFT, 1 PCR a week and 6 monthly antibody tests - so I do know 100% its not a guess.

I even went out on freedom weekend clubbing (packed to the rafters & without a mask) and my god if I was going to get it anywhere it was there!

So I am not so sure about the pessimism.

Reading back my post not sure what I am trying to say. Its contradictory. Its very confusing this whole thing.

Covid will probably be with us for a long time.

However the best strategy, now and historically, has always been to restrict the virus transmitting among us for as long as possible. Through zero covid or some kind of social distancing/lock downs.

The reasons are obvious and clear - to prevent deaths, serious illness and to learn as much as we can.

‘Natural immunity’ is a myth as any kind of protective factor for the population. It’s just wrong science.

We are incredibly lucky to have good vaccines that are more effective than hoped, even though delta has come along. Vaccines give a greater immunity than getting covid ‘wild’ and seriously cut down the risk of death/serious illness.

So vaccines and all the social distancing measures - which are masks and avoid indoor activities - have had the greatest impact and crucially have bought us time.

So whilst we are probably going to get covid at some point, the cautious approach is still the best one for the next year.

Natural immunity is not a ‘myth’.

The risk of a person who has had 2 vaccines is much lower. And if you don't catch it you don't transmit it.

The majority of cases are in the unvaccinated or those too young to have had both vaccinations.

Scotland has 95% vaccination rate in all age groups over 40.

There's drugs ready for boosters it may be a combined flu/Covid. It will probably only be for over 65 and clinically vulnerable though.

I'm not sure why anyone ever thought they weren't going to catch it at some point?? This has always been known, it is inevitable and will become just like all the other bugs that we accept are in circulation every year. The sooner we stop testing for it the better. By Spring I hope. The mental health and economic damage had been colossal.

@bumbleymummy natural immunity as some kind of protective factor for the population is a myth and is completely wrong science misinterpreted by the public and some politicians. It’s the ‘herd immunity’ without vaccination myth that was perpetuated regularly in the pandemic.

Natural immunity and vaccine induced immunity both provide a level of immunity to the population. It is not a myth.

If a vaccine hadn't been developed we would have had to rely on natural immunity sooner or later, because we can't keep lockdowning indefinitely. Natural immunity isn't an on/off switch, it rises and falls.

No @Marguerite2000 that is the ‘myth’ part. Natural immunity is not a protective factor for the population and never has been for any pandemics. If a vaccine hadn’t been developed we would have simply had more deaths and more illness.

@vera99 has he just reinvent the wheel?
This has been known since the beginning, but the idea was to slow the spread down because :

1. We didn’t know much about the virus to start with.
2. We know little about long covid and we don’t know the long term effects of it.
3. Buying time to get effective vaccines to build up a decent immunity.
4. NOT overwhelm the NHS. If we all get sick at the same time, even milder hospital cases will be fatal. This still applies today.

Some doctor he is

@TheKeatingFive

It could mutate tomorrow into a far less transmissible strain

Which would make minimal impact and die out quickly.

Only a more transmissible strain would be able to displace delta.

That’s right from what I’ve read. And previously with viruses they have mutated into a more transmissible but less deadly virus (like the common cold, spreads quickly but is a mild illness).

Thanks everyone for clarifying. I'm obviously not sure how all this works. I think I was thinking similarly to what @Milkbottlelegs - more transmissible but less dangerous - but that doesn't really fit the conversation, so just ignore me 😂

[quote NCBlossom]@bumbleymummy natural immunity as some kind of protective factor for the population is a myth and is completely wrong science misinterpreted by the public and some politicians. It’s the ‘herd immunity’ without vaccination myth that was perpetuated regularly in the pandemic.[/quote]
But we’re not trying to achieve herd immunity without a vaccine. Natural infection contributes to herd immunity. If we didn’t have the vaccine we would have eventually ended up with a protective level of immunity in the population via natural immunity BUT it would have meant a lot more deaths and the nhs being completely overwhelmed which is why it wasn’t advised. I’m not sure what you mean by ‘wrong science’. Infection does confer durable immunity.

@NCBlossom

No *@Marguerite2000* that is the ‘myth’ part. Natural immunity is not a protective factor for the population and never has been for any pandemics. If a vaccine hadn’t been developed we would have simply had more deaths and more illness.

It was a protective factor for other pandemics, though. Not ‘protective’ in the sense of ‘population had 100% immunity against illness and death’, but certainly ‘protective’ in the sense that the pandemic phase of the disease passed. Otherwise the world would be living through about three dozen simultaneous killer pandemics.

The pp was right in saying that if vaccines hadn’t been developed, we’d have still got to the stage of covid being an endemic virus. It’s obviously not the ideal route to get there though given how many would have died.

I think a lot of people haven't accepted or realised we will all get covid at some point

I remember my attitude in Feb/March 2020 being well we're all going to get Covid and then the lockdowns were about stopping everyone getting ill at once to overwhelm the health service (worldwide as well as UK).

The vaccines aren't a cure, so we're still all going to get it.