If the government were honest about the next 4 months

[RuleWithAWoodenFoot]

They'd say that children are probably going to catch covid, there is nothing to stop this happening. Lots of families will probably catch it off their children, school staff will probably catch it off children too.

Education is going to be disrupted again if the above happens. No way around it. But it could be 'over' by November when the bad weather kicks in and older folk start getting ill as per usual circumstances. At that point booster vaccs could start.

It's definitely 'an approach', but not telling people that this is the plan is unfair. Do you think people have realised this yet? Or are the Emperor's new clothes still in view?

If you have missed the change in messaging, it doesn't mean the messaging hasn't changed.

I haven't missed it - see previous posts in this thread. I just think that most people have. Until maybe this week. A few weeks back it was all still 'schools are safe', 'continued social distancing' etc, then the guidance came out and it was very different. I don't expect anyone outside of education to read the guidance, it's all logistics based.

@RedToothBrush there’s no big flashing sign because that would be the hallmark of an honest, respectful government.

[quote JanglyBeads]@RedToothBrush there’s no big flashing sign because that would be the hallmark of an honest, respectful government.[/quote]
Well im not going to argue with you on that one!

But it still doesn't mean we haven't been told it either!

inews.co.uk/news/education/schools-government-covid-cases-record-high-pupils-off-1172359?ITO=newsnow&fbclid=IwAR2svtlGGwR6ltdGsLex3SWDBQ4U_ygeVNM_phKzk5zrzWAK0zbvy52h7I0

We're being told it tomorrow. In the i anyway.

Ah, thanks wheresmymojo, I didn’t realise Ebola wasn’t air bourne. In which case yes, that makes a lot of sense, although it was more deadly and contagious why it didn’t spread in the same way.

@RedToothBrush

The messaging in the press about schools all this week has changed.

Its been openly saying that there's going to be a big spike in cases due to schools. Members of the government have started to say this.

And its looking extremely likely 12 - 15 year olds will be vaccinated in schools in the next couple of weeks. Apparently schools are now being told to start planning for this.

The messaging on boosters has been shifting the other way with comments that suggest only the most elderly and vulnerable will get boosters for now, with more evidence needed for other over 50s groups who were initially expected to have them.

If you follow the tone and how the story changes you can see where government thinking is at, and I don't really think they are trying to hide either - indeed i think theyve been actively been trying to prepare the public for these outcomes.

Just because they were saying something different a few weeks ago doesn't mean thats what they are saying now. If you have missed the change in messaging, it doesn't mean the messaging hasnt changed.

I do think its worth looking for these type of small changes in tone in whats said because it really does help you see where big official announcements will be in a week or so. Usually government ministers have been saying something for a while both on and off the record before the big announcement. Which isn't really the way to do things properly but is how the uk government has been operating over the last good few years.

So i think its somewhat unfair to say the government aren't being honest about what happens now in the next 4 months.

We've been told its going to be rough. And the stuff on schools isn't where it was in mid june or even the end of july. Its definitely moving and there's definite concern at the highest levels.

The latest rumblings is that PM personally believes 12 - 15 year olds should be vaccinated as he is concerned about case numbers in schools... Even without the official word from the JCVI.

So expect the big announcement imminently.

There doesn't need to be a flashing light with a sign saying 'the policy and thinking has changed'. I think some people expect it to happen like that.

Certainly seems that way

@RuleWithAWoodenFoot

Why are the kids more at risk of catching it than before?

On page one of the thread:

In school.
More transmissible variant (see July for examples)
No small/contained bubbles anymore.
No isolation of close contacts.
No notification to parents of cases in school.
No need for family members to isolate in an infected household.
No mitigation measures outside of school.
No mask wearing anywhere - public transport to school for eg.
More parents back at work places.

See i would actually argue with a few of these to an extent.

They were in school in July when Delta was already dominant.
No one has really ever agreed that school bubbles were really working in practice. Indeed, there were plenty of complaints that kids spread it to siblings who were still in school anyway. Plus some of these bubbles were huge in size anyway, so lots of kids could have it before any had symptoms. The local high school had bubbles with 300 in them. And then many got the bus anyway and weren't wearing masks when they should have been in many cases. My sons primary had 60 in it. They certainly haven't been 'small' for some time.
Some of the close contact isolations were completely arbitrary anyway and didn't always make sense.
And im not entirely sure how telling parents of a positive test in school actually reduced cases. It merely informed them. They should have been looking for symptoms anyway.

Some of the parents wouldn't have been double jabbed back in July but will now be - and this does reduce the risk of parents being infected and passing it to their kids. So that does take some of the edge off being back in the workplace.

The one that makes the difference is merely the kids being back in school as its the unvacinnated age groups who are massively over represented in the number of cases there are in the community.

I don't think really we are massively in a place which is totally different to July in terms of risk of getting covid. The spike at the end of July more or less stopped when the kids stopped being in school. I think we will see a resumption of that pattern in these age groups thats all. I don't think it will be at a markedly faster rate than pre-summer holidays which is what you would expect if the changes to restrictions etc.

I could be wrong on this, but i think the impact of many of the measures in schools pre summer has been somewhat over stated and really they were more like window dressing rather than more useful. Once it got into a school it seems to have spread throughout it pretty rapidly anyway. They just made parents feel better about it, more than anything.

It being at the same rate as pre-summer isn't a good place to be in if you consider last September, i would stress. But i always don't think the situation in terms of lifting of restrictions will lead to an acceleration of cases compared to how fast it was going up in late July. It will go up, but not at a high rate of infection.

*But i also.

Well, I've got responses to all of those but it'll have to wait until tomorrow evening. Night!

Well my Dc will potentially mix with the other classes in the playground and lunch hall. I don't think they sit with the other classes for lunch in infants so any mixing is outside.

I feel that availability of testing is the cause of more cases. It was impossible to book a test month back, now very local sites and loads of availability.

@Peteycat

Oh I won't scroll on by, because I'm here to speak up for people who are tired of the behaviour that is displayed on these threads.

How good of you.

Some of the parents wouldn't have been double jabbed back in July but will now be - and this does reduce the risk of parents being infected and passing it to their kids. So that does take some of the edge off being back in the workplace

Please look at the figures coming out of Israel, the immunity of vacination is wanning. DH and I were vacinated in the first wave (1st before Xmas, 2nd in March) DH has just been properly sick with Covid (he narrowly escaped hospital age 47, no other risk factors). The vaccinations won't hold forever.

We went back to school on Wednesday here. The first case in DDs class was announced on Thursday and all the kids have been asked to do a PCR test but no one is isolating. They are mixing freely within the playground, have full school assemblies and lots of the kids in her class have siblings in other classes in the school.

They spent all of Wednesday and half of Thursday in close contact with the child who tested positive. We're then told Thursday afternoon to get PCRs. I imagine most of those will come back negative as they hadn't had time to develop the virus yet, they then spent all day Friday together.

I expect more cases in her class by the time they go back in on Tuesday.

With restrictions, bubbles and additional measures they have managed to go the last year and a half with no cases.

Without restrictions they managed a day and a half.

I could be wrong on this, but i think the impact of many of the measures in schools pre summer has been somewhat over stated and really they were more like window dressing rather than more useful. Once it got into a school it seems to have spread throughout it pretty rapidly anyway. They just made parents feel better about it, more than anything

This was not our experience in either of my teens high schools or in the school I work in. The restrictions although not perfect, kept the number of infections/transmission low. Yes there was disruption with bubbles isolating at times but there was only ever a handful of positive cases at any one time. This time it is going to be very different and the nature of this virus means it will spread throughout the school quickly. I predict high sickness absences. Sitting in a classroom in close contact with 30 people and then moving to other lessons with 30 different people several times a day will not take long to infect high numbers.

@RedToothBrush

It being at the same rate as pre-summer isn't a good place to be in if you consider last September, i would stress. But i always don't think the situation in terms of lifting of restrictions will lead to an acceleration of cases compared to how fast it was going up in late July. It will go up, but not at a high rate of infection.

Hundreds of thousands of children (just under 840000 in the first week of the month) were out of school in July - ill, isolating, sent home, taken out by parents to avoid compromising holidays. Y11 and Y13 were out. Those still in school were often still abiding by mask and SD rules. It was by no means business as normal. Transmission in September, from a high base level, with Delta everywhere, with all year groups back in school (having been helpfully mixing all over the UK, Europe and indeed much of the world for the last six weeks) and no mitigation measures in place - you really don’t need qualifications in epidemiology to see what’s going to happen.

The government announced that all cev children/cev household aged 12-15 would be invited for a vaccination by 23rd August. This is not happening in my NW London trust. They are weeks away from having this ready as per an email I received. These children plus the younger children who are not included in the vaccination program are going to be put at high risk.

no, not all CEV kids, just a relatively small number of children in specific situations,

Sorry yes an identified Specific group of CEV children. But my point is that they have not been invited to receive their vaccination in some areas of the country despite the government announcing that they would.

Certainly I’ve seen people say ‘CEV children will be vaccinated’ to justify why it is ok to simply let all children catch covid now, which isn’t true for secondary due to lack of time and definitely isn’t true for primary due to not being eligible.

I’ve also seen people say ‘measures will be taken when schools hit 5 cases’, I think they assume kids will be sent home. I don’t think they realise that the measures advised for 5 cases are ‘clean the light switches and open a window’.

I think the government's thinking is pretty simplistic
Priority 1: Prevent NHS being overwhelmed (and resulting public unrest and disorder)
Priority 2: Minimise damage to the economy

And the approach is that you'll get 2 jabs plus boosters then you're on your own.

With an acceptance that most will get Covid, tens of thousands of vaccinated people will be hospitalised and thousands of them will die. Long Covid will affect hundreds of thousands.

During Covid the rich have got richer and the poor have got poorer. Funny that.

@noblegiraffe

Certainly I’ve seen people say ‘CEV children will be vaccinated’ to justify why it is ok to simply let all children catch covid now, which isn’t true for secondary due to lack of time and definitely isn’t true for primary due to not being eligible.

I’ve also seen people say ‘measures will be taken when schools hit 5 cases’, I think they assume kids will be sent home. I don’t think they realise that the measures advised for 5 cases are ‘clean the light switches and open a window’.

And don't forget the fabulous advice to have classes outside.

I am sure that all primary schools have copious amounts of sheltered outdoor space where they can accommodate several classes of 30 kids in piss it down rain and freezing cold in the middle of winter!

Fine let’s shut the whole fucking country down for good, everyone can buy a rifle and wait for the food riots!

@Mybalconyiscracking

Fine let’s shut the whole fucking country down for good, everyone can buy a rifle and wait for the food riots!

Yes, because that's really what every poster is saying.

@Mybalconyiscracking

Fine let’s shut the whole fucking country down for good, everyone can buy a rifle and wait for the food riots!

That's exactly what everyone's saying, well done and congratulations for being able to see through the words written and discern what people are not actually saying but clearly mean.

It couldn't possibly be that people have concerns about the all or nothing approach, it couldn't possibly be that there are people who think that wearing a mask actually isn't that big a deal but could be quite useful in stopping people coughing on each other.

It's not that some people are suggesting that if you sleep in the same bed as a person who has had a positive test result or share saliva with them, it might be a good idea to stay away from other people for a few days.

No what we are saying is that civilisation as we know it should cease and everyone should become a hermit who raises and kills their own rabbits and has tomatoes growing in the understairs cupboard so as to completely rule out the need for any socialisation or risk of transmission.

👍