If the government were honest about the next 4 months

[RuleWithAWoodenFoot]

They'd say that children are probably going to catch covid, there is nothing to stop this happening. Lots of families will probably catch it off their children, school staff will probably catch it off children too.

Education is going to be disrupted again if the above happens. No way around it. But it could be 'over' by November when the bad weather kicks in and older folk start getting ill as per usual circumstances. At that point booster vaccs could start.

It's definitely 'an approach', but not telling people that this is the plan is unfair. Do you think people have realised this yet? Or are the Emperor's new clothes still in view?

I have just assumed watalpalava and peteycat are usf trolls as thought of someone normal sharing sane extreme living with covid rules is scary thought.

Rabodm question given all these % and I guess probability of getting covid.
Do the studies have varying amounts different varients.

As remember them saying the old mitigations wouldn't work with alpha Kent varient.
But delta appears worse than Alpha..

I also vaguely remember Boris saying in spring itt wasent just vaccines reducing cases it was lockdown.

It’s all the contingency plans I’m worried about!

Prolific poster yes

But at least I’m not irrational - some of the fear in here is actually embarrassing for grown adults

You sound like those heads in the sands twats in Florida. Weirdos.

"Here's my opinion, everyone I know agrees with me, you are irrational, it's embarrassing."

Not the most convincing argument, tbh.

What's more embarrassing is your poor comprehension.
I see no fear; just pragmatism.

It is very easy to throw around terms such as 'realistic' / 'irrational' - in fact there are a whole set of variables that make the same decision or viewpoint based on the same accurate data 'really quite rational' for some, and 'really not very rational' for others.

Note that I say 'based on accurate data'. What is really important is that what people are considering (as far as possible) is the most up-to-date, verified data from an impartial source that is relevant to their own situation, rather than generalised statements such as 'no healthy children have died from Covid' or conversely 'having asthma as a 25 year old means that death from Covid is likely'.

Of course, our own experiences also affect our reaction to data - if your best friend died from Covid yesterday, then your reaction to the same data is going to be different from someone who has not known anyone who has been seriously ill.

However, just saying that a point of view is 'irrational' because it is more negative (or more positive) than one's own is not that helpful.

@Watapalava

Prolific poster yes

But at least I’m not irrational - some of the fear in here is actually embarrassing for grown adults

Honestly step away from the covid threads

maybe you should take your own advice, you seem a bit stuck, like a record?

August 30th update:
The corresponding cumulative (vaccinated vs. unvaccinated) risks are:
relative risk of infection 85.9%
relative risk of mild illness 38.9%
relative risk of severe illness 14.6%
relative risk of fatality 3.0%
For example, vaccination reduces the risk of being infected and developing a severe illness to 14.6% of the risk prior to vaccination.

I think these data make the numbers clearer. So even though you may have Covid-19 after vaccination, it will not be severe in 85.4% of cases that it would otherwise be severe in (which was already a low proportion in some age groups).
I don't know how they do all the modelling to control for different variants. I think it's based on UK data from Ons though.

Cttontail - Thank you.

Did I miss Watapalava's apology?

@Cttontail

August 30th update: The corresponding cumulative (vaccinated vs. unvaccinated) risks are: relative risk of infection 85.9% relative risk of mild illness 38.9% relative risk of severe illness 14.6% relative risk of fatality 3.0% For example, vaccination reduces the risk of being infected and developing a severe illness to 14.6% of the risk prior to vaccination.

I think these data make the numbers clearer. So even though you may have Covid-19 after vaccination, it will not be severe in 85.4% of cases that it would otherwise be severe in (which was already a low proportion in some age groups).
I don't know how they do all the modelling to control for different variants. I think it's based on UK data from Ons though.

That's really interesting. Thank you.

Interesting that the risk of infection is still very high - so double vaccinated teachers in a classroom of unvaccinated children at a time of high infection rates are not especially well protected from being off work for 10 days.

Exactly. Disruption still seems pretty likely. Though I'm sure someone will be along to say 'just don't test' and to suggest that if we do test it's just because we want time off work Nothing to do with our duty of care.

Indeed. The outcome of the September review into whether we should continue LFT testing will be telling as to overall strategy.

Because I am out there and living my best life (well, back at school), we are hearing of quite a few young people who are on their second bout of Covid despite having had one vaccine. The festivals have played a massive part (not that I’m blaming them for going - I hope they had fun). However, some of those who had Covid earlier last year are having a worse time of it this time with Delta.

Anecdotal but it might suggest that disruption to staff is going to be considerable if you can catch Covid again so quickly.

I am not ‘stepping away from these boards’ as I think the sharing of info is very useful and allows me to adjust my actions as I see fit. Ignoring Covid in the hope it will vanish doesn’t work for me and equally, I don’t want to (and can’t afford to) stay at home forever. For the sake of my own health, I would like to adapt my actions to an ever changing situation, especially as my workplace remains one of the most volatile.

@BustopherPonsonbyJones

Because I am out there and living my best life (well, back at school), we are hearing of quite a few young people who are on their second bout of Covid despite having had one vaccine. The festivals have played a massive part (not that I’m blaming them for going - I hope they had fun). However, some of those who had Covid earlier last year are having a worse time of it this time with Delta.

Anecdotal but it might suggest that disruption to staff is going to be considerable if you can catch Covid again so quickly.

I am not ‘stepping away from these boards’ as I think the sharing of info is very useful and allows me to adjust my actions as I see fit. Ignoring Covid in the hope it will vanish doesn’t work for me and equally, I don’t want to (and can’t afford to) stay at home forever. For the sake of my own health, I would like to adapt my actions to an ever changing situation, especially as my workplace remains one of the most volatile.

Did these people have Covid before around Christmas? A large number of Y6 caught Covid at the end of term and one of the children had already had it in December as well.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-58402153.amp

This article said 25 teachers are off.
Not sure means they have have covid or close contact and awaiting pcr.
If attendance and sickness is same in English schools then they have problems.
Also dfe threatening attendance officers and fines even if parent has genuine worries as they cev or wants to self isolate the whole house.
Double jabbed people can get covid
Can transmit . I imagine if you got covid I 2020 you have good chance getting xovid again in 2021 even if vaccinated.
Breakthrough infection people who tested postive in past are not included in daily infection figures so no idea how many had covid twice .
Schools are riskier environment.

Ah well, it’s just Covid “blowing through”. Blowing through like Hurricane Ida. Fine if you’re living your best life elsewhere, not fine if you’re right in its path.

Well watching what is happening in Scotland we know what to expect here in the coming weeks. Still no further on in arranging a vaccine for my 15 year old who falls in the group eligible due to having an immunosuppressed household family member. I'm back today in a SEN school and we've been told all bubbles and distancing rules have gone. I find it hard to understand as the majority of our children are CEV/vulnerable and unvaccinated.

@borntobequiet

Ah well, it’s just Covid “blowing through”. Blowing through like Hurricane Ida. Fine if you’re living your best life elsewhere, not fine if you’re right in its path.

I often think people who say we should just "live with this now" must live extremely cushioned, and protected lives.

Or be deep in denial.

Or not give a shiny shit about the rest of us.

@mrshoho

Well watching what is happening in Scotland we know what to expect here in the coming weeks. Still no further on in arranging a vaccine for my 15 year old who falls in the group eligible due to having an immunosuppressed household family member. I'm back today in a SEN school and we've been told all bubbles and distancing rules have gone. I find it hard to understand as the majority of our children are CEV/vulnerable and unvaccinated.

It's as if our governments have been taken hostage by sociopathic maniacs.

People in their 20s, 30s, and 40s shouldn't be dying of covid every week.

Children shouldn't be dying at all.

But covid has killed 76 British children.

2400 children were admitted to hospital with covid in July and August,

And government policy is to force our children to catch covid or lose their education.

I think there’s a balance though @PrincessNutNuts. Covid is endemic but that doesn’t mean it should be encouraged to run through society unchallenged nor does it mean society can shut down completely for an indefinite amount of time.

As a supporter of mitigation’s that have been lifted (namely face masks, limited indoor public spaces and household contact isolations) it’s frustrating to read people automatically thinking that’s supporting another lockdown. To me, not having those things in place raises the likelihood of having to enforce stronger measures down the line. I really feel like the government have misjudged this one based on forecasts of how effective the vaccines would be and how the public would behave following lifting of restrictions. I don’t think cases have risen as much as they would have hoped to ward off any large winter wave.

There’s a strong chance I’m completely wrong, but in the case that I’m even close, regaining any control of the situation is going to be a massive challenge likely requiring very unpalatable measures, including but not limited to things like lockdowns.

Despite the ‘living with it’ rhetoric there’s still no plan for provision of healthcare with the extra workload covid creates. That’s what always has been and continues to make covid so dangerous to the general public. You don’t have to have it to have your access to health care affected. It’s a first come first served basis no matter what you’re presenting with if everybody is presenting with equally severe problems.

The first lockdown was to protect the NHS from getting overwhelmed. We apparently succeeded to some. I think having to stop other healthcare, turn people away who would normally have been seen ("are your lips blue enough yet"), not enough resources leading to more people dying than would have done is not a success. The pandemic highlighted how stretched the NHS is. Staff are burnt out and have had to be put in repeated awful situations- there will be a mental health fallout from that. What I don't understand is a health policy NOW that says we will let as many people as we can get ill, some permanently or die until NHS can't cope.
Headteachers by the way have some discretion over the bonkers DofE guidance as they want schools to remain open and to protect school communities. They know pretending covid doesn't exist means more disruption. My school for example will accept HEPA filters, won't do multi-class assemblies, staggering play and lunch etc.

@Cornettoninja I can't find any reputable source that says that covid is endemic in the U.K.

Or anywhere else for that matter.

But I agree with you that "it's endemic" doesn't mean give up and let covid put as many people in hospital, in ICU, and in the ground as it can.

There's no reason why "it's endemic" means we stop trying to protect children from harm.

There's no reason why "it's endemic" means we abandon the 4 million who were advised to Shield to their fate.

Although there seems to be a huge marketing campaign of lazy, negative, fatalist, defeatism on at the moment to convince us to surrender to a virus.

So here we are,

About to find out what "Living with the virus" looks like.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w

Stop scaremongering risk to kids